Early polls give Baldizon election edge in Guatemala

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
General Election ◽  
Investment Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
Legislative Activity ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject The outlook for the September presidential elections. Significance Guatemala is due to vote for a new president, congressional representatives and local mayors at a general election in September 2015. Constitutional restrictions prevent incumbent President Otto Perez Molina from standing for a second term. Ruling party candidate Alejandro Sinibaldi currently trails challenger Manuel Baldizon in the polls. Impacts The pace of legislative activity will slow further in the run-up to the vote as legislators concentrate on campaign activities. Foreign companies perceived by local communities to be interfering with electoral politics may become targets of protest action. Economic and investment policy is anticipated to remain broadly similar under Perez Molina's eventual successor.

Singapore ruling party faces critical contest

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
September 11 ◽  
General Election ◽  
Foreign Workers ◽  
Founding Father ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The City ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Outlook for Singapore's 2015 general election. Significance Singapore will hold a general election on September 11, its first since the death of the city-state's founding father, Lee Kuan Yew. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has braced his long-incumbent People's Action Party (PAP) for a more difficult contest at the polls than in 2011, with opposition parties expected to better the 10% share of parliamentary seats they held on the dissolution of parliament on August 25. Impacts The People's Action Party will need to define a post-Lee Kuan Yew legacy. The post-September government will need to balance popular concern over foreign workers with Singapore's need for labour. Singaporean electoral politics will become increasingly competitive.

South Africa's ANC factionalisation will hasten

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
Power Utility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Conference ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Khoza has openly called on ANC MPs to vote against President Jacob Zuma in a parliamentary motion of no confidence scheduled for August 8. Despite many ANC members privately agreeing with Khoza, most ruling party lawmakers have kept silent ahead of the crucial vote. Instead, the race to succeed Zuma as leader at December's national conference is prompting fierce internal contestation among the party and its alliance structures, threatening to undermine its 2019 general election performance. Impacts Intra-ANC violence could grow in the run up to, and after, December’s national conference. Ongoing corruption allegations involving officials at state-owned power utility Eskom could implicate members of the government. Relations between the minister of mines and the Chamber of Mines are likely to deteriorate further following new government restrictions.

Kishida will raise confidence in Japan's ruling party

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Kishida is a veteran politician from the party mainstream, who served as former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's foreign minister for many years and then as party policy chief. Parliament will convene on October 4 and elect him as the new prime minister. He will lead the party into a general election now expected on either November 7 or 14. Impacts Stimulus measures to deal with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will be an early priority. The run-up to the COP26 climate conference will see details of the new government's energy policy emerge, which will include nuclear power. The LDP's status as ruling party is not under threat, but losing seats in the election would immediately weaken Kishida's position.

Political restructuring is on the way in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
President Elect

Subject Changes to the political landscape. Significance This year’s general election has transformed the political landscape that prevailed for over two decades in Brazil. The centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) were pushed away from the mainstream by a surging far-right led by President-elect Jair Bolsonaro. After winning four straight presidential elections, the Workers’ Party (PT) was defeated in the runoff. It retains some leverage, but now faces increasingly serious challenges to its hegemony on the centre-left. Impacts Ineffective management of relations with Congress could undermine Bolsonaro’s ability to pass key legislation. Protest movements not aligned to established parties could proliferate in the coming years. Bolsonaro’s Social Liberal Party (PSL) will fail to establish itself as a leading party in the longer term.

Ethiopia faces risks to peaceful and fair elections

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Risks to Ethiopia's 2020 elections. Significance The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) has announced that general elections will be held on August 29 this year. Although the polls are widely expected to be more competitive and freer than in the past, a combination of logistical challenges, growing insecurity and accusations of unfair practices may undermine the peacefulness and fairness of the elections. Impacts Many parties may be unable to re-register in time to contest the elections, potentially narrowing the crowded electoral field. The government’s strong stance in negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam may help the ruling party’s dented reputation. As local polls will not be held yet, the ruling party will continue to control local bodies regardless of the general election outcome.

Jamaica's ruling party sweeps early general election

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ruling Party

Headline JAMAICA: Ruling party sweeps early general election

Belarus is susceptible to Russia's economic crisis

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Contagion Effects ◽  
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook. Significance Concern is growing in Belarus about the contagion effects from the economic crisis in Russia to which its economy is closely linked. In the run-up to presidential elections (due no later than November 2015), President Alexander Lukashenka needs to perform two economic sleights of hand. First, he needs to revive a sluggish economy but without structural reforms that would almost certainly be resisted by the powerful bureaucracy. Just as importantly, he must maintain good relations with Moscow, despite recent friction over bilateral trade. Impacts Lukashenka's rapprochement with West may ease the suppression of domestic opposition. Further reshuffle of key officials is likely in order to deflect economic blame away from Lukashenka. Belarus, currently with observer status, will draw closer to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in 2015.

Norway's government drives post-oil diversification

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
General Election ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Up

Subject Norway's economy. Significance Even as the global price for oil recovers slowly, Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg's government hopes to encourage Norway to transition to a post-petroleum economy. The main contours of the 2017 budget suggest that the Norwegian economy has turned two significant corners: the prognosis for economic recovery is promising, and the Norwegian economy will slowly transition to a broader base. Impacts Spending rules for the GPFG could be tightened next spring. The expansive budget may help Solberg's Conservative Party win back votes in the run-up to the 2017 general election. The Christian Democrats could emerge as kingmakers from the 2017 election and possibly facilitate a centre-left coalition.

Pakistan’s ruling party may be hard to dislodge

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Sindh Province ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Electoral chances of Pakistan's opposition. Significance Despite Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification and resignation as prime minister on July 28, his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) remains in power under new Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is now regarded as the opposition party most likely to challenge the incumbent government. A by-election on September 17 in the seat vacated by Sharif -- Lahore’s NA-120 -- will be a test of popularity ahead of the general election due in 2018. Impacts Pakistan’s military will look for greater support from the civilian government if the United States cuts its funding. Abbasi will resist pressure to devalue the rupee as a means of bolstering Pakistan’s exports. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement in Sindh province may regroup.

Ruling party will look inwards ahead of Burundi polls

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dynamics ◽  
Fourth Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political dynamics ahead of 2020 elections. Significance The government has launched talks with CNARED, a forum of opposition parties, to negotiate the return of its exiled leaders ahead of the 2020 presidential elections. President Pierre Nkurunziza, who has said he will not run for a fourth term, appears to be cautiously reaching out to the opposition in an effort to ease his regime’s diplomatic isolation and deepening economic crisis. Impacts The 2020 elections will likely see continued heavy human rights violations and restrictions on the political space. CNARED’s mooted return might increase tensions, rights violations and repression, especially once they try to campaign outside Bujumbura. Burundi’s crisis weighs heavily on regional security, especially in Congo’s South Kivu Province; the elections might exacerbate this.

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