Uzbek security service will be succession kingmaker

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Force ◽  
Security Service ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
State Group ◽  
Government Security

Subject Uzbekistan's SNB. Significance Uzbekistan's National Security Service (SNB), one of the least-reformed descendants of the Soviet KGB still in existence, has become a crucial buttress to the regime of President Islam Karimov. The SNB is the country's pre-eminent security body and has huge influence not only in government but also in business and industry. The SNB is a powerful and ruthless political force. It is at present able to control any challenges to the regime from the population or the elite, even though the risks of both are increasing as uncertainty over the presidential succession persists and Uzbekistan's economy suffers from Russia's slowdown. Impacts For the time being, the SNB will be the main recipient of government security-related funding. In the immediate future, it will be a far more powerful body than the army or police. Fears of an Afghanistan-related security crisis and Islamic State group recruiting may force closer working with Kazakhstan's KNB.

Post-Karimov Uzbekistan lacks forces for change

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
The Other ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Force ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Security Service ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Violent Extremism ◽  
State Group

Significance Karimov's death leaves a void since governance stemmed from him and his ability to coerce and manage Uzbekistan's regional groupings and key political and business players. The National Security Service (SNB), a powerful political force in its own right with connections and placemen throughout government, will play kingmaker. Impacts The other four Central Asian states will watch nervously and hope for less erratic and aggressive Uzbek leadership. Severe economic problems will increase pressure for market reforms which Karimov shirked. With no political alternatives, violent extremism inspired by Islamic State group remains a stability risk.

Central Asia can manage Islamic State risks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Political Rights ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Major Threat ◽  
Security Treaty ◽  
Civil And Political Rights ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State group's following in Central Asia. Significance Over the last 18 months, officials in Central Asia have frequently cited the recruitment of citizens by Islamic State group (ISG) as a major threat to national security. Governments fear that some of those who return will build networks and launch jihadist attacks. Their responses target suspected sympathisers and returning fighters but also alienate the broader community of devout but not extremist Muslims. Impacts Civil and political rights will be curbed as part of counter-terrorism programmes. Tajikistan and other states will look for Russian assurances including through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation. China will strengthen security ties although there is little Uighur activism in Central Asia.

Russian strategy plan is both defensive and assertive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Security Strategy ◽  
Policy Statements ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Subject Russia's new national security strategy Significance A new National Security Strategy (NSS) signed off by President Vladimir Putin on December 30 covers a broad range of issues from Russia's place in a dangerous and "imbalanced" world to the economic challenges that the government must tackle. The document accuses the West of backing a "coup" in Ukraine in 2014 and pursuing policies that allowed the Islamic State group (ISG) to emerge. Impacts The characterisation of Western states as hostile will be mirrored in harsher wording in their policy statements on Russia. In an election year, there will be little emphasis on democratic values. Regional and ethnic interests will be subsumed in a 'unitary Russia' narrative.

Malaysia security act could cause political friction

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
National Security ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
National Security Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Significance He was referring to the National Security Council Act (NSCA), which came into effect on August 1 after being passed in December 2015 without express royal assent. The government says the legislation is necessary to protect Malaysia amid increasing concerns over terrorism, particularly by Islamic State group (ISG), but critics argue that it gives the prime minister arbitrary powers that could be abused. Impacts The government will use the NSCA regardless of civil society criticisms, making protests possible. International perceptions that the NSCA is being abused would cause diplomatic trouble for Malaysia. The NSCA's utility could be dampened if political use continues to be made of Islam, as is likely.

Jihadist violence in Sahel will persist in 2021

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Military Leadership ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Force ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Strong Commitment ◽  
G5 Sahel Joint Force ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Military

Significance The deployment of the UK troops comes at a time when jihadists attacks are intensifying across the Sahel amid an escalating internecine conflict between the al-Qaida-affiliated Group for Supporting Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). Impacts Mali’s coup is likely to distract the military leadership away from its core mandate to improve national security. The G5 Sahel Joint Force may continue to struggle to curb jihadist cross-border operations. The deployment of UK troops underscores the still strong commitment of Western governments to improving the security situation in the Sahel.

Rise of Shia militias will reshape Iraqi politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Guard ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group

Subject The rise of Iraq's Shia militias. Significance Shia militias, known as Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs), are the most capable offensive forces at the federal government's disposal in its fight against Islamic State group (ISG). Yet Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's cabinet only exercises limited control over these forces, many of which receive backing from Iran. While Iraq's battle against ISG is progressing steadily, the emergence of these powerful Shia militias could represent a larger medium-term challenge to state stability. Impacts Shia militias will probably be less effective in Sunni-only areas. Iraq boasts insufficient offensive forces to attack Mosul in the first half of 2015. The National Guard initiative will take months to be ratified in parliament. Politics in the oil-rich south will be complicated by a power struggle between Shia politicians and militia leaders.

Libya beheadings strengthen anti-Islamist agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
State Group

Significance The strikes were in response to a video released by the Islamic State group (ISG) yesterday showing the beheading of 21 Egyptian Copts who had been kidnapped from Sirte on two separate occasions on December 31 and January 3. Brigadier Saqer al-Joroushi, who commands the air force for the armed group of former General Khalifa Haftar, said the strikes were carried out in coordination between them and Egypt. He added that further strikes were going to take place. Impacts The beheadings are sharpening divisions within the moderate Islamist Libya Dawn camp. This might trigger a confrontation between its more moderate elements and the more radical ones. The killings will reinforce popular Egyptian support for Sisi and his anti-Islamist agenda.

Jihadi groups will compete for support in the Maghreb

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
International Action ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Militant Groups ◽  
State Group

Significance Instability in Libya has exacerbated an already fraught security environment in the Maghreb and the Sahel. Several militant groups co-exist in these parts, usually in competition with each other. The Islamic State group (ISG) has taken centre stage, but despite high profile attacks in Libya, it has failed to establish a foothold in other Maghreb countries. Impacts ISG encroachment in Libya will strengthen calls for international action to address Libya's crisis. Sporadic attacks are expected against security forces and government targets in Tunisia and Algeria. Government pressure and expanded counterterrorism operations could cause more widespread abuses of human rights. Fighters returning from jihad in Syria and Iraq could bolster the capabilities of local jihadist cells.

Turkey's Kurds will be angry if HDP is not re-elected

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Guerrilla Warfare ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Religious Elements

Significance The process looks in danger. Serious local conflicts in south-eastern Turkey are straining tensions between Kurds and the government, even though guerrilla warfare has not resumed. Kurdish self-confidence is rising because of its fighters' success in expelling Islamic State group (ISG) from Kobani. However, dialogue between the government and imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan continues, and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu seems more sensitive to Kurdish aspirations than his predecessors. Impacts Ocalan's leadership of the PKK is unshakable, but his ability to persuade his followers to avoid clashes on the streets is weakening. The conflict between the Kurds and Islamists inside Turkey will grow. Public opinion, including conservative religious elements, will block significant concessions to the Kurds, limiting the government's scope. The Kurds are emerging as a key regional opponent of Islamist politics.

Mosul will test US efforts to rebuild Iraqi army

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Department Of Defense ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
State Group ◽  
And Training

Subject US Iraqi Train and Equip Fund. Significance The US Department of Defense has requested an additional 630 million dollars for the Iraqi Train and Equip Fund (ITEF) in the 2016-17 fiscal year. This fund, hurriedly brought into existence in the summer of 2014, was developed to provide assistance and training to the Iraqi army in the wake of its disastrous performance against Islamic State group (ISG) forces. Forces trained under the ITEF will be a key component of the planned offensive to retake the ISG stronghold of Mosul later this year. Impacts The programme is unlikely to continue once Mosul has been retaken -- although other funding streams will continue. Its success would strengthen the Iraqi army, thereby empowering central government against pro-Iran, hardline militias. Its failure would strengthen these militias and increase the prospects of a semi-permanent fragmentation of the Iraqi state.

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