New leader to revitalise South Africa's opposition

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Specific Policy ◽  
Traditional Leaders ◽  
Freedom Fighters ◽  
National Governments ◽  
Policy Proposals ◽  
Black Voters ◽  
Radical Left

Significance Outgoing leader, Helen Zille, resigned on April 12 -- two years earlier than expected. Party strategists see Maimane as critical for attracting black voters, whose support is essential for its growth. Impacts The radical left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters' appeal among young, educated black voters may dilute the DA's attraction strategies. The DA will struggle to transform its Values Charter into specific policy proposals, due to the departure of senior policy figures. Consequently, DA-controlled sub-national governments will formulate their own policies, tailoring them to appeal to local constituencies. Its media team will struggle to communicate with the ANC's rural supporters, who are often influenced by traditional leaders.

South Africa's opposition could alienate black voters

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
General Election ◽  
Western Cape ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Freedom Fighters ◽  
Metropolitan Municipalities ◽  
Black Voters

Significance Previously her party’s leader (2007-15), Zille has caused an internal party crisis after tweeting that the legacy of colonialism was not all “negative”. With reports that current DA leader Mmusi Maimane wants Zille to resign, the party risks losing current or prospective black voters at the 2019 general election. Impacts If Zille is retained, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) may threaten to withdraw support in several metropolitan municipalities. Divisions could widen between pro- and anti-Zille supporters in the DA’s Western Cape structures. The Freedom Front Plus -- a small, white-dominated party -- may increase its vote share at the expense of the DA.

South Africa's ANC may tighten black empowerment rules

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Economic Empowerment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Racial Inequalities ◽  
Black Economic ◽  
Black Economic Empowerment ◽  
Black Empowerment ◽  
Black Voters ◽  
Core Part

Significance AA forms a core part of Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) -- a policy designed to address the racial inequalities inherited from the apartheid era. It is politically popular, but critics allege BEE facilitates graft and is costly for business. Impacts The main opposition Democratic Alliance's oscillation on whether it supports BEE will dissuade many black voters from supporting it. The opposition Economic Freedom Fighter's call for nationalisation of industry will resonate with unemployed black youths. The ANC will struggle to achieve its goal of creating '500 black industrialists' given the weak outlook for the economy.

South African lockdown easing should reduce hardship

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
State Capacity ◽  
Political Capital ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Poor State ◽  
Religious Services ◽  
Freedom Fighters

Significance The re-opening comes despite an infection rate that is expected to peak only later this year. Impacts The Economic Freedom Fighters and ANC-aligned populists will try to make political capital out of increasing infection and death rates. The government’s failure to deliver promised COVID-19 relief quickly and effectively has thrown fresh light on poor state capacity. Allowing church and other religious services to re-open has raised renewed questions over the coherence of Pretoria’s regulations.

South Africa’s ruling party will fracture further

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Freedom Fighters ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Such changes would attempt to avoid a fractious leadership battle that could further expose party rifts. After South Africa narrowly avoided a ratings agency downgrade last year, the ANC is hoping for a scandal-free twelve months as it sets about choosing a successor to Jacob Zuma later this year. Impacts Public spats between ANC factions will boost the electoral prospects of the Democratic Alliance and Economic Freedom Fighters. The chances of a ratings downgrade will increase as a leadership contest becomes more bitter. ANC councillors in opposition-run administrations will seek to disrupt local and provincial governments.

Rising South African populism will divide parties

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Political Violence ◽  
Land Reform ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
Land Expropriation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Kwazulu Natal ◽  
Freedom Fighters ◽  
The Government

Significance His comments come amid lingering concern over parliament’s endorsement last month of land expropriation without compensation. The contested policy was proposed by the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and backed by the ruling ANC, but the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) argues that such a policy will jeopardise property rights and lead to capital flight. Impacts Improving national land and agricultural data collection will prove crucial to substantive land reform. Attempts to overhaul land reform policy could see a deterioration in relations between the government and traditional leaders. Political violence in flashpoints such as KwaZulu-Natal province could worsen ahead of the 2019 poll.

Portugal Socialist government faces three-way squeeze

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Commission ◽  
New Left ◽  
Foreign Affairs ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Socialist Government ◽  
Step Down ◽  
Political Act ◽  
Radical Left

Significance Following a reconciliation among Portugal's left-wing parties, Silva must choose between appointing a Socialist (PS) minority government backed by smaller radical left forces, or a caretaker administration until fresh elections can be held in May or June 2016. Neither would have been his preference, and he is not rushing his decision. The new left-wing entente is based on a softening of the previous government's austerity plans. Impacts Having already missed the deadline, Portugal cannot submit a draft 2016 budget for European Commission scrutiny until it has a government. The PS's deals with the radical left exclude foreign affairs, potentially tempering US and NATO concerns about the likely new government. Naming the new government may be Silva's last significant political act before he must step down at the March 2016 end of his second term.

South Africa’s Zuma could face early exit

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Early Exit ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Freedom Fighters ◽  
Alliance Partners

Significance The news prompted a sharp drop in the value of the rand, its largest one-week fall against the dollar since 2015 and the previous sacking of a finance minister. Zuma’s decision came against the wishes of many within the ANC and its alliance partners and prompted opposition parties to propose a parliamentary motion of no confidence in the president. Impacts Anti-Zuma protests could bring rival trade union organisations closer together. Poor relations between the ANC and the South African Communist Party (SACP) will worsen ahead of policy and elective conferences. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) will benefit most from the current crisis, as the Democratic Alliance (DA) struggles with infighting.

South Africa’s Zuma will limp on as ANC splits further

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Public Affairs ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
The South ◽  
South African Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Freedom Fighters ◽  
Alliance Partners ◽  
National Coalition

Significance Earlier this month, the South African Council of Churches (SACC) and the Public Affairs Research Institute (PARI) released separate reports alleging a corrosive process of ‘state capture’ by influential business figures. Meanwhile, officials in the ANC’s alliance partners -- the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) -- are openly calling for Zuma's resignation. Impacts If Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma triumphs in the ANC's leadership contest, COSATU could withhold support for the party at the 2019 elections. Support for both the Democratic Alliance and the Economic Freedom Fighters will increase and hasten formal national coalition talks. The nascent left-wing United Front movement could draw support from the ANC if a coalition with new trade union SAFTU is formalised. Racial polarisation could worsen as ANC populists blame 'white monopoly capital' and 'foreign agents' for government failings.

South Africa's Ramaphosa faces reform hurdles

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Freedom Fighters ◽  
General Elections

Significance Under President Cyril Ramaphosa, the ANC improved on its historic low of 53.91% in the 2016 local elections but fell short of its 62.15% tally in 2014's general elections. Meanwhile, the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) dropped from 22.23% to 20.77%, while the populist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) grew from 6.35% to 10.79%. Impacts Questions surrounding the electoral commission’s effectiveness will prompt public calls for greater funding and internal reform. Despite recent speculation, the prospect of Ramaphosa being ‘recalled’ by ANC members over the short term appears remote. Minority and coalition administrations could become the new reality at all levels of government over the medium-to-long term.

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