South African lockdown easing should reduce hardship

Significance The re-opening comes despite an infection rate that is expected to peak only later this year. Impacts The Economic Freedom Fighters and ANC-aligned populists will try to make political capital out of increasing infection and death rates. The government’s failure to deliver promised COVID-19 relief quickly and effectively has thrown fresh light on poor state capacity. Allowing church and other religious services to re-open has raised renewed questions over the coherence of Pretoria’s regulations.

Significance His comments come amid lingering concern over parliament’s endorsement last month of land expropriation without compensation. The contested policy was proposed by the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and backed by the ruling ANC, but the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) argues that such a policy will jeopardise property rights and lead to capital flight. Impacts Improving national land and agricultural data collection will prove crucial to substantive land reform. Attempts to overhaul land reform policy could see a deterioration in relations between the government and traditional leaders. Political violence in flashpoints such as KwaZulu-Natal province could worsen ahead of the 2019 poll.


Significance The news prompted a sharp drop in the value of the rand, its largest one-week fall against the dollar since 2015 and the previous sacking of a finance minister. Zuma’s decision came against the wishes of many within the ANC and its alliance partners and prompted opposition parties to propose a parliamentary motion of no confidence in the president. Impacts Anti-Zuma protests could bring rival trade union organisations closer together. Poor relations between the ANC and the South African Communist Party (SACP) will worsen ahead of policy and elective conferences. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) will benefit most from the current crisis, as the Democratic Alliance (DA) struggles with infighting.


2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. 535-558
Author(s):  
Marine Fölscher ◽  
Nicola de Jager ◽  
Robert Nyenhuis

ABSTRACTThis article examines the use of populist discourse in South African politics. We investigate speeches of leaders from the ruling African National Congress (ANC) and opposition parties, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). We find that the EFF consistently employs populist appeals, while both the incumbent ANC and official opposition DA largely refrain. Our longitudinal analysis allows an examination of fluctuation across party leaders and electoral cycles, and illustrates that neither the ANC nor the DA have modified their political discourses in light of a rising populist challenger. However, there is some evidence that the two most dominant parties have reformed their programmatic offerings and behaviour in an attempt to compete with the EFF's popular appeal. The South African case offers important insights into the study of oppositional populism on the African continent, and a window into how major political parties may respond to emerging populist contenders.


Significance Outgoing leader, Helen Zille, resigned on April 12 -- two years earlier than expected. Party strategists see Maimane as critical for attracting black voters, whose support is essential for its growth. Impacts The radical left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters' appeal among young, educated black voters may dilute the DA's attraction strategies. The DA will struggle to transform its Values Charter into specific policy proposals, due to the departure of senior policy figures. Consequently, DA-controlled sub-national governments will formulate their own policies, tailoring them to appeal to local constituencies. Its media team will struggle to communicate with the ANC's rural supporters, who are often influenced by traditional leaders.


Significance Such changes would attempt to avoid a fractious leadership battle that could further expose party rifts. After South Africa narrowly avoided a ratings agency downgrade last year, the ANC is hoping for a scandal-free twelve months as it sets about choosing a successor to Jacob Zuma later this year. Impacts Public spats between ANC factions will boost the electoral prospects of the Democratic Alliance and Economic Freedom Fighters. The chances of a ratings downgrade will increase as a leadership contest becomes more bitter. ANC councillors in opposition-run administrations will seek to disrupt local and provincial governments.


Significance A former South African Reserve Bank (SARB) governor and minister of labour, Mboweni faces a crucial first few weeks in his new post as the government attempts to placate rating agencies and engineer an economic turnaround. Mboweni’s initial moves may be determined by Moody’s credit rating review expected today. Impacts In the short term, Mboweni’s appointment will be a boost for Ramaphosa’s bid for fiscal consolidation and growth. In the medium-to-long term, Mboweni will likely prove a more polarising figure inside the ANC than Nene. Allegations linking the Economic Freedom Fighters with a major banking scandal could give Mboweni and the ANC an early political 'win'. Mboweni's previous social media utterances could be further exploited by opponents, both left and right, in the months ahead.


Author(s):  
Aadelah Shaik Yakoob

The focus of this article will be to ascertain what role, if any, the Public Protector plays in achieving and upholding the rule of law as envisaged in section 1(c) of the Constitution. In doing so, I will assess the powers of the Public Protector as envisaged by the Constitution and supporting legislation and analyse the effect of recommendations made by the Public Protector. I will then offer a discussion on certain shortfalls within the legislation that have become a hindrance to the Public Protector achieving her mandate in practice. I will, further, highlight the importance of the powers of the Public Protector as an avenue to achieving the rule of law, and, offer an analysis of the judgments in South African Broadcasting Commission v Democratic Alliance and Economic Freedom Fighters v Speaker of the National Assembly. I will, finally, conclude by discussing possible solutions to the challenges faced by the Public Protector in practice and offer a summary of my views.


Significance Previously her party’s leader (2007-15), Zille has caused an internal party crisis after tweeting that the legacy of colonialism was not all “negative”. With reports that current DA leader Mmusi Maimane wants Zille to resign, the party risks losing current or prospective black voters at the 2019 general election. Impacts If Zille is retained, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) may threaten to withdraw support in several metropolitan municipalities. Divisions could widen between pro- and anti-Zille supporters in the DA’s Western Cape structures. The Freedom Front Plus -- a small, white-dominated party -- may increase its vote share at the expense of the DA.


Significance Earlier this month, the South African Council of Churches (SACC) and the Public Affairs Research Institute (PARI) released separate reports alleging a corrosive process of ‘state capture’ by influential business figures. Meanwhile, officials in the ANC’s alliance partners -- the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) -- are openly calling for Zuma's resignation. Impacts If Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma triumphs in the ANC's leadership contest, COSATU could withhold support for the party at the 2019 elections. Support for both the Democratic Alliance and the Economic Freedom Fighters will increase and hasten formal national coalition talks. The nascent left-wing United Front movement could draw support from the ANC if a coalition with new trade union SAFTU is formalised. Racial polarisation could worsen as ANC populists blame 'white monopoly capital' and 'foreign agents' for government failings.


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