Kyrgyzstan security agency will struggle with threat

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
State Committee ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Political Role ◽  
State Security ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
State Group

Subject Counterterrorism in Kyrgyzstan. Significance Kyrgyzstan will hold parliamentary elections on October 4. While President Almazbek Atambayev's party is expected to perform well, concern is growing regarding the security situation in the country. A terrorist incident in July that state security officials have claimed as having links with the Islamic State group (ISG) means that Kyrgyzstan's State Committee for National Security (GKNB) has been presented with an opportunity to assert its role. However, the growing risk of instability will also be a serious test for the agency's capabilities. Impacts GKNB influence will grow if instability increases and it will retain its positon as the main security body. The agency's political role means that it has little incentive to reform at present. Eurasian Economic Union membership will draw Bishkek closer to Moscow's economic woes and could increase domestic tensions. A security crisis in Kyrgyzstan would add considerable strain to Russian military commitments in Ukraine, Syria and Tajikistan.

Russia is expanding its military options in Syria

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Training ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Active Role ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
State Group

Subject Russia's diversified military capacity in Syria. Significance Russian armed forces played an active role in the Syrian government's recapture of Palmyra in March, despite the partial withdrawal of Russian aircraft from Syria. As well as air strikes, months of Russian military training and arms deliveries enhanced the Syrian army's combat capacity, contributing to a rapid collapse of Islamic State group (ISG) resistance. The operation showed how Russia has widened the instruments available: it can scale conventional air strikes up or down, provide fire support from helicopters or artillery, and use these elements to compensate for deficiencies in the Syrian military, while supplying weaponry, training and coordination to local forces. Impacts Russian military support can ensure the Syrian regime's survival, but that will require a long-term presence. The recapture of Aleppo would constitute a near fatal blow to the Syrian rebel movement. The Russian military will learn lessons about weaponry and coordination from the Syrian operation. Elements of these lessons including control of proxy forces may be applied in future foreign interventions. The use of mercenaries, trialled in Syria, offers Moscow a useful and deniable instrument abroad.

Guerrillas could prompt Turkish state of emergency

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Population ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
Turkish State ◽  
Kurdistan Workers Party ◽  
State Group

Significance They were responding to increasingly serious attacks on Turkish soldiers and police by Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) guerrillas in eastern Turkey. With President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowing fierce retribution, and conflicts between the authorities and the local population growing in the Kurdish-dominated south-east, the country is braced for full-scale war, just as it prepares for fresh parliamentary elections on November 1. Impacts Business and the economy face a sharp downturn with the lira growing steadily weaker. The conflict with the Kurds will intensify and Kurdish demands for full-scale independence will increase. The government will not seek a compromise with the Kurds and will be prepared to allocate any resources needed for a military solution. A more authoritarian style of government is likely to emerge after November. Turkey looks increasingly vulnerable to serious Islamic State group (ISG) attacks in urban centres, though probably not before the election.

Baghdad will head off Basra autonomy bid

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Energy Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Role ◽  
Local Actors ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Oil Revenues

Significance The increase reflects the introduction of the Basra Heavy oil grade at the start of June. With northern and western Iraq under Islamic State group (ISG) control, Basra is the last fully secure economic base of the government and the country's key strategic asset, facilitating over 80% of Iraq's oil revenues and nearly half its refining sector. Impacts Basra oil exports alone could rise to 3 million barrels per day towards the end of 2015. Western energy investment in the province will scale up. The federal government will struggle to contain muscular local actors from gaining a stronger political role. This could create complications for investors in the medium term. The key restraint for the growth of foreign investment is payment risk, with Baghdad struggling to pay oil recovery costs.

Islamist insurgents target Mali government backers

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Stable States ◽  
Weak State ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Security ◽  
State Group

Significance This follows several other smaller-scale incidents against Bamako this year. However, it is the largest terrorist attack ever in the capital city and an alarming escalation for President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita's fragile government. Impacts Al-Murabitun may be carrying out more audacious attacks to advance al-Qaida's branding against that of Islamic State group. Al-Murabitun can expect moderate success, given the benefits of operating in a region with weak state security forces. An attack against stable states such as Algeria or Morocco would increase the group's notoriety.

Higher tax to replace Russia's metal export duty

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
Corporate Income Tax ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Export Duty ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
The Government

Significance Officials are trying to correct high domestic prices which they see as unjustified, and to claw back what they regard as excessive profits earned by metals companies. Impacts Export duties could exert upward pressure on global prices of steel, nickel and aluminium. Exports to the Eurasian Economic Union are exempt, so the government will need a failsafe system to prevent re-exports to third countries. The export duties will reduce the corporate income tax earned by metal-producing regions.

Corporate governance codes of Eurasian Economic Union countries: a comparative investigation

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 748-769 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirgul Nizaeva ◽  
Ali Uyar
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Best Practices ◽  
Transition Countries ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Oecd Principles ◽  
Corporate Governance Codes ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
The Uk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to comparatively analyze the corporate governance codes of transition economies, particularly five Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) members (i.e. Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia). Specifically, the convergence or divergence of these countries’ corporate governance codes among themselves as well as relative to the best practices of the UK Corporate Governance Code (UK Code) and the OECD Principles of Corporate Governance are investigated. Design/methodology/approach Initially, the existing literature on corporate governance with special focus on transition countries is reviewed. Afterwards, benchmarking the international best practices, based on main chapters and contents, the corporate governance codes of all countries in the sample are analyzed. Findings The paper finds that even though some principles of the corporate governance codes of the countries in the sample differ in some aspects, they do converge to some extent. However, high misalignments between the UK Code and the OECD Principles and the codes of selected countries in some aspects were found. Research limitations/implications The conclusion and implications of the study characterize the corporate governance of selected developing countries; thus, they might not be generalizable to other countries. Practical implications The codes of the countries in the sample should be revised, and more specifications regarding the stakeholder, board structure, its subcommittees, independence, diversity and transparency issues need to be addressed. Originality/value The paper comprehensively analyzes the contents of corporate governance codes of transition countries; from both practical and academic point of view, it was important gap that needed to be fulfilled.

Rise of Shia militias will reshape Iraqi politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Guard ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group

Subject The rise of Iraq's Shia militias. Significance Shia militias, known as Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs), are the most capable offensive forces at the federal government's disposal in its fight against Islamic State group (ISG). Yet Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's cabinet only exercises limited control over these forces, many of which receive backing from Iran. While Iraq's battle against ISG is progressing steadily, the emergence of these powerful Shia militias could represent a larger medium-term challenge to state stability. Impacts Shia militias will probably be less effective in Sunni-only areas. Iraq boasts insufficient offensive forces to attack Mosul in the first half of 2015. The National Guard initiative will take months to be ratified in parliament. Politics in the oil-rich south will be complicated by a power struggle between Shia politicians and militia leaders.

Libya beheadings strengthen anti-Islamist agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
State Group

Significance The strikes were in response to a video released by the Islamic State group (ISG) yesterday showing the beheading of 21 Egyptian Copts who had been kidnapped from Sirte on two separate occasions on December 31 and January 3. Brigadier Saqer al-Joroushi, who commands the air force for the armed group of former General Khalifa Haftar, said the strikes were carried out in coordination between them and Egypt. He added that further strikes were going to take place. Impacts The beheadings are sharpening divisions within the moderate Islamist Libya Dawn camp. This might trigger a confrontation between its more moderate elements and the more radical ones. The killings will reinforce popular Egyptian support for Sisi and his anti-Islamist agenda.

Jihadi groups will compete for support in the Maghreb

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
International Action ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Militant Groups ◽  
State Group

Significance Instability in Libya has exacerbated an already fraught security environment in the Maghreb and the Sahel. Several militant groups co-exist in these parts, usually in competition with each other. The Islamic State group (ISG) has taken centre stage, but despite high profile attacks in Libya, it has failed to establish a foothold in other Maghreb countries. Impacts ISG encroachment in Libya will strengthen calls for international action to address Libya's crisis. Sporadic attacks are expected against security forces and government targets in Tunisia and Algeria. Government pressure and expanded counterterrorism operations could cause more widespread abuses of human rights. Fighters returning from jihad in Syria and Iraq could bolster the capabilities of local jihadist cells.

Turkey's Kurds will be angry if HDP is not re-elected

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Guerrilla Warfare ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Religious Elements

Significance The process looks in danger. Serious local conflicts in south-eastern Turkey are straining tensions between Kurds and the government, even though guerrilla warfare has not resumed. Kurdish self-confidence is rising because of its fighters' success in expelling Islamic State group (ISG) from Kobani. However, dialogue between the government and imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan continues, and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu seems more sensitive to Kurdish aspirations than his predecessors. Impacts Ocalan's leadership of the PKK is unshakable, but his ability to persuade his followers to avoid clashes on the streets is weakening. The conflict between the Kurds and Islamists inside Turkey will grow. Public opinion, including conservative religious elements, will block significant concessions to the Kurds, limiting the government's scope. The Kurds are emerging as a key regional opponent of Islamist politics.

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