Qatar can ride out gas price collapse

Subject Qatar gas pricing policy. Significance With LNG spot prices dropping in parallel with oil prices, buyers have pressed Qatar to renegotiate the terms of long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts. In response, Qatar has proved surprisingly flexible, particularly to India's Petronet, seeking to lock in long-term relationships with customers ahead of a potential glut in supply that will put pressure on LNG prices whatever happens in the oil market. Impacts Lower LNG revenue will put immediate pressure on Qatar's public finances. Some major public infrastructure projects may be scaled back or delayed, impacting contractors. LNG suppliers with less market clout than Qatar are likely to face even greater pressure on their contracts. Declining supply outlook and climate change concerns may let Qatar find itself in an enviable position once again by 2020 or sooner.

Subject Arguments about gas prices as a reflection of deteriorating relations. Significance Attempts by the Belarusian government to secure a lower price for gas imported from Russia have political undertones. The government is cautiously distancing itself from Moscow while signalling an openness to improved ties with the West. A long-term energy security programme adopted in December 2015 sets out steps towards diversifying fuel imports and would, if successful, undermine Russia's role as monopoly supplier. Impacts Reduced economic reliance on Russia is likely to be accompanied by greater political frictions. A worsening relationship could prompt Moscow to consider covertly undermining the Belarusian leadership. The government is unlikely to institute democratic and human rights reforms. This reluctance to change will be a constraint on closer EU ties.


Subject Yemeni oil production. Significance The oil and gas sector -- which was in any case in long-term decline, owing to a lack of investment -- suffered serious disruption after civil war broke out in March 2015, with oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refining facilities closed, and ports blockaded to prevent delivery of oil products. The internationally recognised government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi has renewed efforts to encourage a recovery in oil production since late 2016, but these are hampered by the civil war and lawlessness in remote areas. Impacts Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be the main sources of oil imports, probably on concessional terms. Hydrocarbon exports will not provide sufficient finance for post-conflict reconstruction. Exports of LNG are unlikely to restart before 2020 at the earliest. A crisis of power provision will expand the market for small solar panels.


Subject Shortages in Turkmenistan despite gas wealth. Significance Despite predictions of more than 6% growth, the Turkmen economy has been hard hit by the decline in natural gas prices since 2014. News of food running out in the shops and cash becoming less available suggests the government is not coping well. Turkmenistan only has one gas customer, China, and the revenues are going partly to offset debt. Impacts The government may have to solicit IMF advice and Russian assistance but will be reluctant to accept their terms. Turkey, a long-term commercial and political friend, may be the most appealing foreign partner. Any upsurge in conflict along the border with Afghanistan will alarm the government and prompt higher defence spending.


Subject India's short-term need for coal despite long-term plan for renewables. Significance Reports indicate that NTPC, the former National Thermal Power Corporation, India’s largest state-run electricity producer, is planning to invest 10 billion dollars over a five-year period in three new coal-fired power plants. The proposal is striking in the light of India’s commitment to renewable energy and its stance on climate change. Impacts India’s plans to shift its vehicle fleet to electricity by 2030 may bring increased coal use in the long term. The Indian government may face a backlash from the urban electorate if it fails to curb air pollution from coal burning. Liquefied natural gas imports may increase in the short term if underused gas-fired power plants are brought online.


Subject The outlook for the LNG market. Significance With major oil and gas reserves, and around 5% of global GDP, South America might in theory be expected to play an important role in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) business. It both produces and consumes LNG, but the factors affecting LNG production and consumption are national and global rather than primarily regional. In global terms, the region is neither a major producer nor a large market. Impacts With no new LNG production or export facilities currently announced, the region will not become a major producer soon. The Panama Canal will play a key role in facilitating LNG trade around the region and globally. For countries lacking material gas production, for example Chile, LNG will continue to be a key energy source. Growing gas production in Brazil and Argentina over the medium to long term may increasingly relegate LNG consumption.


Subject LNG investment outlook. Significance Spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have fallen this year, as new supply has collided with a relatively warm Northern Hemisphere winter. Oil and gas companies see a supply shortfall emerging in the mid-2020s and are investing in LNG plants. The deep decarbonisation required to meet 2030 climate change targets means gas is likely to gain market share against coal in power generation and oil in transport. Impacts Low LNG prices will encourage coal-for-gas switching and embolden new importers to enter the market. Higher flows of LNG into Europe as a result of falling domestic gas production will solidify the price cap on pipeline import prices. LNG will continue to make inroads in the shipping and land transport sectors.


Author(s):  
Finizio Steven ◽  
Howe Michael

This chapter first describes the main transactions that occur in relation to the supply of natural gas after its exploration. In particular, it studies contracts relating to: the production of gas (including drilling contracts), the processing of gas, the transportation of gas (including in pipelines and as liquefied natural gas (LNG) by ship), the storage of gas, the sale of gas from producers to wholesalers, and the sale of gas from wholesalers to end users. The chapter then discusses disputes that typically arise in relation to those transactions, including transportation infrastructure disputes and storage disputes. It pays particular attention to disputes relating to long-term gas sale and purchase agreements (GSPAs), an important number of which have led to high-profile arbitration proceedings in recent years. The chapter, therefore, analyzes in detail the clauses typically contained in those agreements, and the issues that typically arise in arbitration — in particular, gas price reviews.


Subject Public infrastructure weaknesses. Significance It is increasingly apparent that public infrastructure in Chile is lagging behind the country’s needs, undermining the competitiveness of the exports that drive its economy, hampering the development of sectors such as agriculture and contributing to social segregation. With fiscal resources constrained by sluggish GDP growth, attention has again turned to public-private partnerships (PPPs) as a possible solution to infrastructure gaps. Impacts Infrastructure gaps help lock in Chile’s highly unequal income distribution. According to the Chilean Chamber of Construction, a 10.0% increase in infrastructure investment would boost GDP by 1.15%. Narrowing the country’s infrastructure gaps will be a key challenge for the new administration that takes office in March 2018.


Subject Prospects for natural gas in the fourth quarter. Significance Platts report that US average spot monthly natural gas price for September fell to 2.35 dollars per million British thermal units (mmbtu), comparing with prices of around 4.0 dollars/mmbtu a year ago. Outside the United States prices are higher, but the trend of softening prices and a relatively weak demand response is the same. China's demand is growing, but not enough to outdo the global supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the fourth quarter.


Significance Sonatrach is preparing to renegotiate most of its long-term contracts to supply natural gas by pipeline and as liquefied natural gas (LNG), as their expiry dates approach in 2019 and 2020. Ould Kaddour, who was appointed Sonatrach’s chief executive one year ago after a period of turbulence within Sonatrach, has made clear that he appreciates the need for a flexible approach in an intensely competitive market. Impacts Algeria’s hydrocarbons production is declining, but global demand for LNG in particular is rising fast. Securing new natural gas supply contracts will be vital for Algeria’s revenue prospects. Ould Kaddour’s efforts to foster better relations with international companies could be rewarded by increased investment.


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