Global trade and shipping will long remain subdued

Subject Trends in global trade and shipping. Significance Slower growth in China and other emerging economies, and feeble growth in the developed world are curbing the expansion of world merchandise trade. Reflecting those trends and the rising importance of cross-border trade in services, international shipping will experience prolonged low growth. Impacts The level and nature of future Chinese economic development will remain the largest determinant of international trade and shipping trends. The pace at which the digital economy disrupts global manufacturing supply chains will have far-reaching consequences for trade patterns. Global trade will shift away from the shipping-intensive intra-industry patterns of the last few decades.

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samta Jain ◽  
Smita Kashiramka ◽  
P. K. Jain

PurposeThe global economy has witnessed an exponential increase in cross-border acquisitions (CBAs) by emerging market companies (EMCs), demanding a relook at their internationalization strategy. The purpose of the study is to investigate whether the announcement of CBAs by EMCs creates value for the equity-holders of acquiring firms and identify factors affecting the valuation of acquiring companies.Design/methodology/approachThe paper investigates the announcement impact of CBAs of CNX Nifty 500 Indian and SSE 380 Chinese companies. The event study analysis of 553 Indian and 125 Chinese acquisitions supports the contention that CBAs are indeed a strategic choice of EMCs for value creation.FindingsCBAs generate positive and statistically significant abnormal returns for shareholders of both Indian and Chinese acquirers. The markets, however, differ in terms of their motivations; country-level factors have been observed to exert significant influence on the returns of Indian acquirers. Indian companies experience larger value creation on acquiring firms established in developed, institutionally closer and/or economically distant markets. The findings support the asset-seeking motive of Indian companies.Originality/valueThe research work contributes to the evolving stream of CBAs literature with a focus on the globalization strategies of EMCs. The present study is a modest attempt to lay the foundation for a new theoretical framework (asset-seeking perspective) of overseas acquisitions from emerging economies. The existing studies on emerging economies have emphasized, in isolation, either Indian CBAs or international acquisitions by Chinese firms. Being so, the study is unique and original in the sense that it is a comparative study of India and China.


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Shouwu ◽  
Xia Yong ◽  
Li Zheng

<p>The technology is not only an indispensable element involved in international trade, but also an important factor affecting the comparative advantage and trade patterns in international trade. Based on predecessors’ research and practice experience, this dissertation selects 20 factors to study the influencing factors, such as international technology transfer, the construction of infrastructure, the complexity of technological progress, economic development level and so on. By using the ISM model, the paper studies the correlation and gradation of influencing factors of international technology transfer. The analysis indicates there are 4 direct factors on surface and. 6 factors on path: the applicability and negotiability of the technology, international technology transfer intermediary. 3 direct factors: the construction of infrastructure. 5 indirect factors: environment changes of international economy, the complexity of technological progress. 2 factors in deep roots: economic development level and changes of industrial structure. Based on this, the paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from five aspects. Meanwhile, it provides certain references to improve the international technology transfer level, promote using international technology transfer to improve technology level, and upgrade the industrial structure.</p>


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 577-591
Author(s):  
Vighneswara Swamy

Purpose The significant economic weight of the Eurozone in the globe caused the contagion of the Eurozone debt crisis on the emerging markets. The Eurozone debt crisis caused the sudden plummeting of the cross-border bank credit (BC) to India causing a significant impact on bank lending in India. Essentially, the purpose of this study is to find an answer to the question: Did the decline in cross-border cross-credit from Eurozone had an impact on domestic BC in India? Design/methodology/approach Using the data for the period from 2000 to 2013 sourced from Bank for International Settlements international banking statistics consolidated data sets, the novel specification of the study captures the impact of Eurozone cross-border credit on India by developing two regression frameworks that capture the pre-Euro debt crisis period scenario and post-Euro debt crisis period scenario. Findings The results offer a very interesting analogy of the behavior of BC and cross-border credit during the pre and post-Eurozone crisis scenarios of analysis. During the pre-Eurozone crisis period, cross-border credit displayed a significant negative relationship with BC indicating that cross-border credit to the Indian firms indirectly benefitted the banks by creating increased demand for domestic BC. The post-Eurozone crisis period witnessed a nexus between cross-border credit and BC during the pre-Eurozone crisis period, which gradually disappeared largely because of the onset of the Eurozone crisis. Originality/value This study is a first of its kind in investigating the impact of the Eurozone crisis on an emerging economy like India. This study supports the hypothesis of the existence of the transmission of financial shocks through the balance sheets of international banks. The findings conform to the policy concerns of most of the emerging economies that international banks transmit financial shocks from their home countries. The implication for India and other emerging economies is that international credit growth deserves careful monitoring.


Subject Energy diversification. Significance Central America is exploring ways to diversify its power generation, pursuing more sustainable hydropower and geothermal energy and developing other renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, biofuels and agricultural waste. The region’s massive potential to develop renewable energy is increasingly being recognised internationally, but issues with capacity and investor confidence weigh on progress. Impacts Fossil fuel use will continue to grow alongside an increase in renewables. Cross-border trade in renewable energy is likely to develop over the coming years. Costa Rica's image as an ecotourism hub will drive domestic and international enthusiasm for renewables investment there.


Subject Canadian provincial and federal politicial dynamics. Significance As Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s term gets underway, Quebec is beginning its election campaign, running to October 1; the centre-right Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) will likely perform well. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces a fractious final year, as relations worsen between the Liberal federal government and various new right-wing provincial governments. Leading issues are migration, carbon taxes, cross-border trade and right-wing provincial governments’ socially conservative and fiscally austere agendas. Impacts Failed NAFTA renegotiations would hurt Trudeau’s administration before 2019 and necessitate further post-2019 negotiations. Right-wing provincial premiers will still cooperate with Trudeau to mitigate the effect of US trade tariffs on Canada. Currently, Trudeau and the Liberals are likely to win in 2019, but opposition parties will gain votes.


Subject Uganda-Rwanda bilateral relations. Significance Rwanda and Uganda have held a series of meetings aimed at defusing tensions following a string of controversial deportations of Rwandans from Uganda. The highest profile saw Rwandan President Paul Kagame meet Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on the sidelines of the African Union Summit on January 28. Following the discussion, exchanges of hostile rhetoric have eased. However, relations remain fragile, and the recent friction has inflamed deep-seated antagonisms. Impacts Regional crises in Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could become a further point of contention. Uganda-Rwanda frictions may hamper consensus-building in the already-divided East African Community. A spike in tensions could impact cross-border trade and tourism.


2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 86-104
Author(s):  
Rafiqul Islam ◽  
Khorsed Zaman

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine one of the most pressing global challenges, the ongoing migrant trafficking across sea, from international trade law and policy perspective. It identifies global poverty as one of the underlying causes of such trafficking. It argues that restrictive trade in labour-intensive services of the World Trade Organization (WTO) contributes to and sustains poverty in many migrant producing countries. Chronic unemployment in poor countries with surplus manual workforce renders these workers bewildered to survive in a jobless and incomeless home markets. Non-liberalization of movements of natural persons under General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) Mode 4 prevents legal cross-border delivery of labours. Restrictive trade in agriculture has but aggravated their marginalized plight. It is this poverty trap that pushes workers, lured by smugglers, to take risky migration routes for better life in countries with labour shortages. Design/methodology/approach – The paper adopts a blend approach of theoretical and applied aspects of international trade law and policy, which is interpreted and applied to a fact situation of contemporary challenge of migrant trafficking by sea. Findings – This paper establishes a nexus between restrictive Mode 4 trade and its implications for poverty-induced migration trafficking trade. It suggests a palatable trade law and policy-based reform response for the WTO to ameliorate poverty and migration trafficking trade concurrently through the creation of legal channels for the cross-border delivery of labours by liberalizing Mode 4 trade in a manner beneficial for developed countries as well. Originality/value – Its value lies in its contribution to maximize multi-lateral trade liberalization for the benefit of all countries, social inclusion and economic emancipation of the disadvantaged, which would minimize global poverty.


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