'Brexit' will most affect Anglophone Africa

Subject Effects of the UK decision to leave the EU on African states. Significance The decision of voters in the United Kingdom to leave the EU ('Brexit') will alter its relationships with countries across the world. London's engagement with countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will change depending on the form the Brexit takes, but the vote to leave risks diminishing the United Kingdom's influence. Impacts Divides in EU and UK policy toward African issues could deepen. A weaker EU will reinforce the need for African states to build relationships with other areas of the world, particularly Asia. Diminishing UK influence could pressure countries such as Germany to expand their engagement with SSA states.

Subject The impact of Brexit on the English-speaking Caribbean. Significance The Caribbean is a region with strong links to the United Kingdom that will be affected significantly by the UK voters' decision to leave the EU ('Brexit'). The region includes sovereign and non-sovereign countries and both groups will be affected, albeit in different ways. Impacts Caribbean concerns will not be a priority for either the United Kingdom or the EU. Uncertainty may further undermine already weak regional economies. CARICOM will need a new trade accord with the United Kingdom, its main export market.


Subject Outlook for a possible free trade deal between India and the United Kingdom post-Brexit. Significance UK business minister Sajid Javid's first overseas visit following the UK decision to leave the EU ('Brexit') was to India on July 8. Both countries have long eyed closer economic ties, and Brexit will likely provide a catalyst. Impacts Prospects for growth are strongest in areas including IT, financial services, pharmaceuticals, textiles and light engineering. The United Kingdom could support India in future international trade negotiations. In time, the India-UK relationship may become diplomatically stronger than the India-US relationship.


Subject The implications of Brexit for China. Significance The UK electorate's June 23 decision to leave the EU runs counter to China's preferences, and the economic and political uncertainty it creates will affect China's relations with both the United Kingdom and the EU. Impacts UK negotiations with China will focus on areas such as property investment, the financial sector and education. Northern English and Welsh cities in particular will seek closer business relationships with China. Greater economic dependence on China may make London feel less able to side with Washington where Chinese-US interests diverge.


2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 3-4
Author(s):  
B Rice ◽  
A Nardone ◽  
N Gill ◽  
V Delpech

The latest HIV data for 2007 has recently been published for the United Kingdom (UK). During the year, an estimated 6,840 (95% confidence intervals 6,600-7,050) persons (adjusted for reporting delays) were newly diagnosed with HIV in the UK. This represents a 12% decline from a peak of new HIV diagnoses reported in 2005 (7,800). Almost all this decline in new HIV diagnoses was in HIV-infected heterosexuals from sub-Saharan Africa who were probably infected in their country of origin.


Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.


Significance This comes after the Telegraph reported last week that Soros had donated 400,000 pounds to the group. There is an ongoing debate as to whether the United Kingdom will in fact leave the EU. Central to it is the question of whether the UK government can unilaterally revoke its decision to trigger Article 50 in March 2017. Impacts Voters would be less likely to support the revocation of Article 50 if the Council imposed conditions that made membership less attractive. Revoking Article 50 and remaining in the EU would reduce damage to the UK economy. If Article 50 is revocable, Eurosceptic governments could be tempted to use the prospect of triggering it as leverage in EU negotiations.


Subject MiFID II implementation and compliance Significance The EU’s flagship investor protection reform -- the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II) -- will come into force on January 3, 2018, Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU Commissioner responsible for financial stability, confirmed on October 17, saying that there would not be a further delay. Despite already having been given an extra year's extension, banks are struggling to comply in time because of the directive's complexity. Regulators, too, are behind in expanding their capacity to enforce it. Impacts Firms across the world that do any of their business within the EU will have to comply, not just those registered in the EU. All firms trading in financial instruments must comply but those where this is a small part of their business may be caught unawares. MiFID II will come into effect before the United Kingdom leaves the EU and is likely to be written into UK law post-Brexit. The United States is keen to deregulate, but US firms whose EU activity is not compliant will be punished, possibly harming US-EU relations.


Significance The process has been plunged into further uncertainty by the outcome of the June 8 UK general election, which has sparked renewed debate about what kind of Brexit the United Kingdom wants and what kind of future economic relationship with the EU it should seek to negotiate. Impacts The UK government’s weakness is a cause for concern elsewhere in the EU, raising fears that it may not be able to compromise on key issues. Many businesses will begin implementing strategies for dealing with Brexit early next year, before knowing the outcome of the negotiations. Pressure for a lengthy transition period will continue to build. The political turmoil and slowing economic growth in the United Kingdom may increase support for EU membership elsewhere in the bloc.


Subject UK-EU trade talks. Significance The United Kingdom will leave the EU on January 31, 2020, but will abide by EU rules as part of the transition period, which runs to December 31, 2020. During this limited period of time, London and Brussels will seek to negotiate a permanent trading relationship. While the transition deadline can be extended, the UK government has committed not to seek an extension. Impacts The impact of no trade deal or a 'thin' one may force the UK government to increase taxes in order to meet spending pledges. UK financial services will rely on an equivalence deal with the EU; London hopes to agree this by mid-2020. The EU’s future trade policy will focus on having stronger sanction powers as well as legal ones for those that unfairly undercut EU firms.


Subject Euratom and Brexit. Significance The UK government on July 13 put forward its proposals on handling its exit from the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom). The document was published amid growing consensus between parliamentarians, the nuclear industry and the scientific and medical communities that the considerable risks associated with leaving Euratom made transition arrangements essential. Impacts Exiting Euratom and the EU will exacerbate the United Kingdom's problems of an ageing nuclear workforce and skills shortages. A UK association agreement with Euratom could be derailed by a veto by the anti-nuclear Austrian government. The problems presented by exiting Euratom will be replicated in other areas where the United Kingdom relies on EU expertise and oversight.


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