Intra-Palestinian tensions will mount

Significance In the short term, it strengthened the party chairman and Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas. Abbas prevented his major rival, Mohammad Dahlan, and his supporters from attending. He was unanimously re-elected, and at least 16 of the 18 seats on the Central Committee also went to Abbas loyalists. Despite expectations, there were no efforts to bring in new blood or name a deputy to succeed the 81-year-old Abbas. Impacts Reactions to an incoming Trump administration in the United States could undermine the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. If the US Embassy relocates to Jerusalem, the Palestinian reaction will be violent. While the situation remains frozen, both Hamas and Fatah will lose further popular support. Competition among potential successors to Abbas will intensify.

Subject US relations with North and South Korea under the incoming Trump administration. Significance The period of transition to Donald Trump's presidency in the United States has displayed neglect and misunderstanding of Korean peninsula affairs, adding to risks for the region as it approaches a period of significant strategic challenge. Impacts Until Trump's team enunciates policy on the Koreas, responses to events will be unprepared and reactive. Trump's policy will influence presidential elections in South Korea, where left-of-centre candidates question the value of the US alliance. The Trump administration’s policy and communication via Twitter heightens risk of misunderstanding within the region.


Subject Outlook for Thai-US-China relations. Significance Chatchai Thipsunaree, Thailand’s permanent secretary in the Ministry of Transport, confirmed on May 17 that construction of the long-awaited Thai-China high-speed railway will begin this year. The project reflects the growing momentum in Thailand’s relations with China, and refiguring of ties with the United States. Impacts Trump administration officials see less strategic imperative in the US-Thailand alliance than previous administrations. China’s growing presence in South-east Asia, particularly on the Mekong, will trigger resistance from affected populations in Thailand. Thai officials will allow Chinese infrastructure projects to proceed despite local protests.


Significance The preferential US trade programme faces renewal or lapse by December 31. South-east Asia’s economies are structured to take advantage of the GSP and many of the products exported to the United States under GSP (such as light manufactures and seafood) are important for South-east Asia’s supply chains. Impacts Vietnam may make another application for inclusion in the US GSP programme. The more authoritarian South-east Asian countries could find it easier to gain US GSP preferences under Trump. The Trump administration could use the GSP as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations or renegotiations.


Subject The US decision to sell advanced F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan. Significance The Trump administration has authorised the sale to Taiwan of 66 advanced F-16 fighter jets, the most coveted item among Taipei's wish-list of arms purchases from the United States. Taiwan has sought the purchase of advanced fighter aircraft for years, but the White House under both George W Bush and Barack Obama agreed only to upgrades for Taiwan's existing F-16 fleet. The total price is estimated to reach about 8 billion dollars. Impacts The arms sale will provide a boost in confidence for Taiwan, which has been falling behind China in defence capabilities. US-Taiwan cooperation will increase, despite Washington not formally recognising Taiwan as a sovereign nation. Taipei will seek dialogue with Beijing, but will be rebuffed at least until after the 2020 elections. Any sanctions China imposes because of the arms sale will probably be folded into future trade negotiations with Washington.


Significance Kim's departure creates unforeseen turbulence at the institution, whose corporate commitments around climate change, gender and renewable energy are anathema to the current US administration. Impacts If the US nominee is an ideological conservative, World Bank relations with either the United States or other shareholders will be damaged. Short-term impacts on Bank operations will be minimal. Kim’s belief that he can affect “global issues” more in the private sector emphasises the importance of the Bank reviving its global role.


Subject Coca production. Significance On April 2, police announced they had seized over 6 tonnes of cocaine, bound for Spain, at the port of Barranquilla. The seizure -- worth an estimated 213 million dollars -- is one of Colombia's largest ever and belonged to the Urabenos crime group. The discovery follows announcements by both the UN and the US government in early March of large increases in the amount of coca being cultivated in Colombia. According to the US figures, the 2016 crop -- an estimated 188,000 hectares -- was the largest in recorded history, suggesting that Colombia’s cocaine problem could far outlive its peace process. Impacts The large coca crop may result in lower cocaine prices in Europe and the United States, where use has grown in recent years. Crop substitution will be a long and expensive process, which could come under threat when Santos’s term ends in 2018. Coca removal may have the adverse effect of raising exponentially the value of the coca that remains.


Subject Government intervention in foreign inward and outward investments and mergers. Significance The Trump administration is increasingly moving to control undesired foreign investments, as the March 12 presidential order blocking overseas-based Broadcom from merging with US-based Qualcomm showed. President Donald Trump was working on advice from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Since 1990, there have been only five cases where presidents have blocked mergers; two of these have been under Trump since his inauguration in January 2017. Impacts Foreign firms will face constraints on accessing US intellectual property and tech patents. Trump will impose new visa requirements for Chinese nationals working and studying in the United States. US vetoes of foreign investment and mergers could see other countries respond in the same way. The Broadcom-Qualcomm veto should help the US semiconductors industry maintain a global role in 5G technology. Foreign firms may sidestep the CFIUS by incorporating in the United States, as Broadcom hopes to do next month.


Significance Follow-on action from Washington and responses from foreign actors will shape the US government’s adversarial policy towards China in semiconductors and other strategic technologies. Impacts The Biden administration will likely conclude that broad-based diversion of the semiconductor supply chain away from China is not feasible. The United States will rely on export controls and political pressure to prevent diffusion to China of cutting-edge chip technologies. The United States will focus on persuading foreign semiconductor leaders to help develop US capabilities, thereby staying ahead of China. Washington will focus on less direct approaches to strategic technology competition with China, notably technical standards-setting. Industry leaders in the semiconductor supply chain worldwide will continue expanding business in China in less politically sensitive areas.


Significance The growing numbers of senior citizens in the United States, their rapidly increasing adoption of social media and their high levels of voter turnout make their vulnerability to disinformation a matter of special concern. Other advanced democracies likely mirror the US experience. Impacts Older US adults' use of television as their primary news source may provide some bulwark against being targeted by disinformation online. The rapid evolution of news distribution technologies will challenge older adults used to a more slowly changing media landscape. Further research is necessary to determine the causes of age-based vulnerability and levels of resilience.


2003 ◽  
Vol 99 (5) ◽  
pp. 863-871 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emad N. Eskandar ◽  
Alice Flaherty ◽  
G. Rees Cosgrove ◽  
Leslie A. Shinobu ◽  
Fred G. Barker

Object. The surgical treatment of Parkinson disease (PD) has undergone a dramatic shift, from stereotactic ablative procedures toward deep brain stimulaion (DBS). The authors studied this process by investigating practice patterns, mortality and morbidity rates, and hospital charges as reflected in the records of a representative sample of US hospitals between 1996 and 2000. Methods. The authors conducted a retrospective cohort study by using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample database; 1761 operations at 71 hospitals were studied. Projected to the US population, there were 1650 inpatient procedures performed for PD per year (pallidotomies, thalamotomies, and DBS), with no significant change in the annual number of procedures during the study period. The in-hospital mortality rate was 0.2%, discharge other than to home was 8.1%, and the rate of neurological complications was 1.8%, with no significant differences between procedures. In multivariate analyses, hospitals with larger annual caseloads had lower mortality rates (p = 0.002) and better outcomes at hospital discharge (p = 0.007). Placement of deep brain stimulators comprised 0% of operations in 1996 and 88% in 2000. Factors predicting placement of these devices in analyses adjusted for year of surgery included younger age, Caucasian race, private insurance, residence in higher-income areas, hospital teaching status, and smaller annual hospital caseload. In multivariate analysis, total hospital charges were 2.2 times higher for DBS (median $36,000 compared with $12,000, p < 0.001), whereas charges were lower at higher-volume hospitals (p < 0.001). Conclusions. Surgical treatment of PD in the US changed significantly between 1996 and 2000. Larger-volume hospitals had superior short-term outcomes and lower charges. Future studies should address long-term functional end points, cost/benefit comparisons, and inequities in access to care.


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