Some Gulf banks may need to consolidate

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Growth Opportunities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Trends ◽  
Degree Of Consolidation

Significance His statement contrasts with broader regional trends. The six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been overbanked for many years, but buoyant economies provided a rising tide of growth opportunities. However, a prolonged period of low oil prices and weaker government finances is tightening liquidity and increasing bad debts. This is driving a degree of consolidation in the sector. Impacts Consolidation rumours will drive rallies in banking shares. Larger banks will facilitate financing of major infrastructure projects. Governments will boost domestic liquidity by borrowing abroad.

West Africa ports compete for regional dominance

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Port Infrastructure ◽  
Port Expansion

Subject West Africa ports development. Significance Economic growth and rising trade volumes with Asian countries are straining West Africa's commercial port capacities. Various port infrastructure projects are underway as states compete to become shipping gateways for the region. Ever larger container ships are also forcing states to offer deeper water berth ports. Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria are leading the race. Impacts Low oil prices should not affect port expansion as the costs are borne by competing private sector operators. The question of whether the operator-driven port model delivers equivalent benefits to individual economies will grow as profits rise. European private sector port operators continue to dominate, but competition from Asian companies such as DP World is growing.

Solar power set for expansion in the Gulf

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Natural Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Set ◽  
Policy Frameworks ◽  
The World

Subject Solar power in the Gulf. Significance Favourable natural conditions and growing gas shortages make the Gulf Cooperation Council bloc one of the most attractive and lowest-cost solar markets in the world. Impacts Lower oil prices will reduce funding and incentives for solar projects, but recent reductions in costs make solar power economically viable. To win future bids, solar firms will require a combination of local knowledge and global best practice. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have strong prospects of evolving into a regional hub for solar business and installations. Due to low capacity and a small starting base solar power may displace only 1-3% of the power sector's fuel consumption by the early 2020s. Another barrier to growth will be the lack of coherent government policy frameworks, and ongoing electricity subsidies.

Regulatory reform to hurt Angola business recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Regulatory Reform ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congo River ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Congo River Basin

Significance Firms tolerated the country's difficult business environment when oil prices were high and profits more certain. However, the price slump has hurt firms across the economy, including non-oil sectors. Together with mounting regulatory burdens, this has caused many to begin to re-evaluate their plans. Impacts Diamond output could rise thanks to the government's renewal of Lucapa's licence, potentially boosting Angola's largest alluvial project. However, extensive landmine coverage -- left over from the 1975-2002 civil war -- will hamper further exploration. Heavy military presence in areas surrounding the Congo River basin will ensure security for firms, potentially helping confidence. The Brazilian court finding that Odebrecht utilised slavery-like labour practices in Angola will undermine its SSA infrastructure projects.

Retail banking in the Middle East will be subdued

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Retail Banking ◽  
Retail Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future

Significance Low global oil prices are weighing heavily on the profitability of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banking sector. Moody's Investors Service in March downgraded 26 GCC banks. This raises questions about the future of retail banking in the region. Impacts GCC governments' commitment to developing financial hubs will support retail banking. However, lack of economic integration in the region will prevent regional Gulf banks from benefitting from economies of scale. Fragmentation in the retail market means that each country will be dominated increasingly by their largest banks.

Prospects for the Gulf states in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Regional Policy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States

Subject Prospects for the Gulf states in 2016 Significance Oil prices are biting into government revenues and increasing pressure for economic reform. However, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) governments are prioritising regional policy following the international nuclear deal with Iran.

Poorer Oman may align more closely with Saudi Arabia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Regional Environment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Dominant Influence

Significance The sultan this month paid his first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia, establishing institutions for ongoing cooperation. Under the previous ruler, Muscat was wary of Riyadh’s dominant influence in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). However, both the regional environment and Oman’s economic situation are now in a state of flux. Impacts New Saudi investment in Oman would likely focus on the tourism and industrial sectors. Higher oil prices will provide only a temporary reprieve for Muscat’s structural economic problems. Omani interactions with the United Arab Emirates could become more fraught.

Surrender to Riyadh will raise domestic risks for Doha

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Arab World ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terrorist Financing ◽  
Regional Conflicts ◽  
Economic Ties

Significance The crisis between Doha and its rivals in the Arab world, led by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, has escalated further after yesterday's intervention by US President Donald Trump, who took credit for the move against Qatar's alleged terrorist financing. Six countries in the region have cut diplomatic and economic ties with Qatar. Impacts Whatever the resolution, the damage to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the idea of Gulf unity will be profound. There will be a knock-on impact on other regional conflicts in which Qatar is involved, such as Syria, Libya and Yemen. A sustained crisis would create upward pressure on oil prices, as traders worry about unpredictable developments. Qatar's gas exports through the Dolphin pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains are unlikely to be disrupted.

Prospects for the Gulf states in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Reform ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
International Standing

Subject Prospects for the Gulf states in 2019. Significance The six states in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have seen solid economic improvements in 2018 on the back of higher oil prices, and Bahrain has avoided a debt crisis, with help from its neighbours. However, the region remains deeply divided over policies towards Qatar, Yemen and Iran. The assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has shaken Saudi Arabia’s international standing and undermined its core narrative of economic and social reform.

Gulf states set for major spending cutbacks in 2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Period ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
First Time

Significance This comes as Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states begin serious reforms to adapt to a new period of low oil prices. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) led the way in August 2015 by ending fuel subsidies, and Saudi Arabia has just reduced its own. Spending plans are being re-examined and new revenue-raising measures are being discussed seriously for the first time. Impacts Growth will stall in most sectors, particularly those that depend on government spending. Commercial opportunities may arise for companies that can help make efficiency savings or fill capacity gaps. Pressure will grow to end the Yemen war which is a drain on Saudi and UAE finances.

Gulf states’ austerity will hit foreign workers

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Foreign Workers ◽  
Demographic Shift ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Firing Line

Subject GCC austerity squeezing foreign workers. Significance The fall in oil prices has put pressure on expatriate workers in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Their jobs and salaries are first in the firing line when governments look to cut costs, their living costs have been rising and they could face new taxes. They also face rising resentment from nationals, who feel swamped by the scale of expat numbers. However, labour laws are slowly improving and a strong dollar has boosted the value of remittances. Impacts Countries that rely on remittances from the Gulf, such as Nepal and the Philippines, may face current account pressures. Opportunities will rise for consultants to fill expertise gaps created by excessive cuts to expatriate professionals in the public sector. If oil dips lower for longer than expected, GCC countries could launch new nationalisation drives. A demographic shift may be underway, as highly paid Western professionals are gradually replaced by cheaper Asian/Arab alternatives.

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