UK Supreme Court ruling is unlikely to delay Brexit

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
White Paper ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Supreme Court Ruling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
Uk Supreme Court ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government had hoped to use executive powers known as the royal prerogative to begin the two-year process of withdrawing from the EU. Instead the court ruled -- by a majority of eight to three -- that the UK Parliament must be consulted and allowed to vote on the issue. Impacts The government is expected to introduce a bill on Article 50 tomorrow. It may face increasing pressure to publish a white paper outlining its Brexit strategy. Support for Scottish independence may rise as the negative economic effects of a ‘hard’ Brexit become more apparent.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

UK agriculture will pursue new markets post-Brexit

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Wine Industry ◽  
Agricultural Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Wine Experts ◽  
Food And Drink ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject The impact of Brexit on the UK agricultural and food and drink sectors. Significance Agriculture and the food and drink sector will be among those industries most affected by Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to pursue a ‘hard’ Brexit. It is uncertain to what extent domestic agricultural policies will replace the support and funding mechanisms of the EU. The food and drink sector will have to adjust to the possibility of future tariffs. Impacts Scottish independence would hit the drink sector, with Scotch whisky alone accounting for almost one-quarter of UK food and drink exports. The burgeoning UK wine industry could be damaged if the informal knowledge transfer from French wine experts slows down. The United Kingdom and the EU will need to cooperate on the issue of access arrangements for fishing.

May will pursue ‘hard’ Brexit

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Single Market ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
Current Form ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
Freedom Of Action ◽  
The Eu

Significance This followed a landmark speech on January 17 in which she added more clarity and detail to her previous stance on the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU. May indicated a willingness to leave the single market, strongly implied that the United Kingdom would not be part of the customs union in its current form and asserted that she would rather quit the EU with no permanent or transitional deal agreed than accept an arrangement which limited the United Kingdom’s future freedom of action. Impacts The government is likely to meet its preferred timetable for triggering Article 50 even if it has to obtain approval from parliament. The United Kingdom will probably lose its passporting rights, which allow UK-based banks to sell their products across the EEA. Paris and Frankfurt will probably benefit as banks may seek to move some of their staff out of London.

EU-UK Brexit is unlikely to be stopped

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Ongoing Debate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance This comes after the Telegraph reported last week that Soros had donated 400,000 pounds to the group. There is an ongoing debate as to whether the United Kingdom will in fact leave the EU. Central to it is the question of whether the UK government can unilaterally revoke its decision to trigger Article 50 in March 2017. Impacts Voters would be less likely to support the revocation of Article 50 if the Council imposed conditions that made membership less attractive. Revoking Article 50 and remaining in the EU would reduce damage to the UK economy. If Article 50 is revocable, Eurosceptic governments could be tempted to use the prospect of triggering it as leverage in EU negotiations.

Support for Scottish independence is growing stronger

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Sustained Increase

Significance For the first time, there is a sustained increase in support for Scottish independence. The main reasons include dislike of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet north of the border, the UK government’s pursuit of a ‘hard’ Brexit and questions about its response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts Soaring Scottish unemployment when the UK furlough schemes end would undermine London’s claim to be protecting Scottish jobs. Rising support for Scottish independence could prompt the UK government to seek a closer trade agreement with the EU. The UK government will be unable to conceal the economic impacts of Brexit under the economic fallout of COVID-19. A Scottish vote for independence would put huge pressure on the UK government to resign and call early elections.

Spain’s budget majority promises political stability

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance The minority Socialist Party (PSOE) - Unidas Podemos (UP) government needed the support of several left-wing and pro-independence parties to get the budget through. Its approval makes early elections unlikely and gives the government a better chance to shape the COVID-19 economic recovery and implement some of its 2019 electoral pledges. Impacts Spain’s poor record in absorbing EU funds suggests it will struggle to make the most of the EU recovery fund. The weakening of the UK currency will hurt Spanish exports to the United Kingdom, especially with fewer UK tourists coming to Spain. Greater political stability will enable Spain to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.

EU-UK free movement compromise will need flexibility

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
White Paper ◽  
Free Movement ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
East West ◽  
The Eu

Significance The UK government says it is determined that free movement of people from the EU will end after Brexit. Impacts An upcoming immigration White Paper will provide greater clarity about the UK government’s approach. Proposals to reform the EU's Posted Workers Directive could trigger Eastern European opposition, deepening the east-west divide. Stricter post-Brexit UK immigration policies could lead to labour shortages and skills gaps in sectors such as agriculture and health. Improving euro-area economic prospects could encourage EU nationals living in the United Kingdom to return to the continent.

PULLING A TRIGGER OR STARTING A JOURNEY? BREXIT IN THE SUPREME COURT

2017 ◽  
Vol 76 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-223
Author(s):  
David Feldman
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

FOLLOWING a referendum on 23 June 2016 in which 52% of voters (38% of the total electorate) had expressed a preference for the UK to leave the EU, the Government announced that it would start the process of withdrawal, in accordance with Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (“TEU”), by notifying the European Council of the UK's decision, exercising the Government's prerogative power to conduct foreign relations. A number of legal challenges were fast-tracked to the Supreme Court. In R. (Miller) v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union (Birnie and others intervening) [2017] UKSC 5; [2017] 2 W.L.R. 583 after an expedited hearing, the Court decided two issues: (1) whether the Government could exercise its power under the royal prerogative to give notice, or needed an Act of Parliament to authorise the giving of notice; and (2) whether the Government required the consent of devolved legislatures in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales before giving notice or introducing to Parliament a Bill authorising the giving of notice. The Court sat unprecedentedly with all 11 serving members. On issue (1), the Court, by an 8–3 majority, held that an Act of Parliament would be required in order to authorise the giving of notice. On issue (2), the Court unanimously held that there was no legal requirement for consent by the devolved institutions.

Exit talks may not clarify future UK-EU relationship

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Member State ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance Prime Minister Theresa May has committed herself to triggering Article 50 by the end of March 2017. No member state has made use of Article 50 and there is thus much uncertainty about what leaving and, more specifically, triggering Article 50 might involve. Impacts May's timetable could be derailed if the Supreme Court decides that the government cannot invoke Article 50 without parliamentary approval. The EU is likely to maintain its firm stance and refuse to engage in any negotiations before Article 50 is triggered. The continued uncertainty over the terms of Brexit is likely to hit business confidence and could deter investments.

Sweden’s new government sparks political realignment

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
General Election ◽  
Green Party ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Left Party ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Realignment ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject Sweden's new government. Significance On January 16, Sweden’s Social Democrats formed a minority coalition with the Green Party, with support from the centre-right Liberal and Centre parties. It also has reluctant support from the Left party, which may not play any role in policy. The agreement marks the end of four months of cross-party negotiations after September’s general election delivered a hung parliament. The left-right alliance attempts to prevent the populist and anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats, which won 17.5% in the election, from entering government. The coalition parties could eventually face a no-confidence vote tabled by the Left party over their support for centre-right policies, while a failure to tackle crime and immigration will serve to strengthen the Sweden Democrats' profile in opposition. Impacts The fragile nature of the government could be a deterrent for future investors in the Swedish economy. The UK departure from the EU and the perceived strengthening of the German-Franco alliance may increase support for Sweden’s own EU exit. Sweden will stop selling weapons to 'undemocratic countries' -- a reference to Saudi Arabia.

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