Recovery will not reverse poverty woes in Argentina

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Income Distribution ◽  
Social Indicators ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Will Force ◽  
Structural Poverty

Significance In 2016, the economic downturn boosted unemployment, especially in the manufacturing and construction industries, while inflation undermined real incomes, hitting the poorest households the hardest. The government extended social aid, but this was not enough to prevent a worsening of income distribution and a rise of poverty. Impacts Strike and protest threats are mounting and will force the government to boost social spending to avoid a crisis. Spillover effects from any recovery may improve social indicators but will not overcome high levels of structural poverty. The government is over-optimistic about the extent of recovery in advance of the October elections.

scholarly journals COVID-19 pandemic and economic crisis: the Nigerian experience and structural causes

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peterson K. Ozili
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
National Health System ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Economic Implication ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Poor Households ◽  
The Government

PurposeThis paper analyses the COVID-19 situation in Nigeria, its effect on the economy and the structural causes that worsened the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses simple descriptive analysis to examine the COVID-19 situation in Nigeria.FindingsThe findings reveal that the economic downturn in Nigeria was triggered by a combination of declining oil price and spillovers from the COVID-19 outbreak, which not only led to a fall in the demand for oil products but also stopped economic activities from taking place when social distancing policies were enforced. The government responded to the crisis by providing financial assistance to businesses and a small number of households that were affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. The monetary authority adopted accommodative monetary policies and offered a targeted 3.5 trillion loan support to some sectors. These efforts should have prevented the economic crisis from occurring but it did not. Economic agents could not freely engage in economic activities for fear of contracting the COVID-19 disease that was spreading very fast at the time.Practical implicationsThe implication of the study is that policymakers should pay attention to three areas of the economy for economic and structural reform. One, policymakers should introduce economic reforms to diversify the economy and reduce Nigeria's dependence on revenue from crude oil export. Two, policymakers in Nigeria should invest in healthcare infrastructure to improve the ability of the national health system to withstand the outbreak of contagious diseases. Three, there is also a need to build appropriate digital infrastructure to facilitate the transition from “face-to-face” business activities to a “digital or online” business activities, which can help to grow the digital economy. Also, policymakers should use legislation to create a robust social welfare safety net for all citizens particularly for unemployed citizens and poor households.Originality/valueThis is the first paper that looks at the economic implication of COVID-19 in a West African country.

Russia will seek to control pharmaceuticals pricing

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Import Substitution ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Parallel Imports ◽  
Russian Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Essential Drug List ◽  
Government Purchases ◽  
Drug List ◽  
Economic Volatility ◽  
The Government

Subject The Russian pharmaceuticals sector. Significance In 2014-15, rising prices for medications pushed up household healthcare expenditure. Domestic producers of cheaper medications, whose prices are set by the government owing to their inclusion in the essential drug list (EDL), found their margins squeezed by rising costs of production. The economic downturn also made it difficult for the Kremlin to keep its commitment to the programme of modernising the pharmaceuticals industry, while maintaining social healthcare expenditures. Although the Russian market is dominated by the commercial segment, government purchases still represent a substantial 25.5%. Impacts Current economic volatility impedes the progress of Pharma-2020 programme aimed at import substitution in the pharmaceuticals industry. Declining incomes will lower demand and lead to the substitution of generic equivalents for more expensive branded products. Margin pressures in distribution and retail will push distributors to diversify away from core business and increase M&A activity. To contain inflationary pressures, further centralisation of state procurement will be undertaken along with allowing parallel imports.

Diversification will be hard amid Kazakhstan slowdown

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Single Industry ◽  
The Government

Significance The slowdown of 2015 continued through the first half of 2016 and may develop into recession by year-end. Depressed prices for Kazakhstan's main exports, inflation and falling consumer demand form a nexus of problems with which the government is struggling to cope. Impacts Oil production is set to rise to replenish the treasury, despite the OPEC plan for output caps. The search for new export markets will prompt the government to review existing and forge new ties. Social unrest is most likely in single-industry towns. The government will try to maintain current social spending levels to avoid unrest.

Riyadh will manage tribal marginalisation backlash

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Reform ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tribal Communities ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince

Significance Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's centralised approach to governing takes less account of tribal interests than his predecessors did. Impacts Riyadh will likely increase the compensation offered to tribes and families living in areas claimed for new projects. The government will sharpen criticism of any prominent tribal figures speaking against it, depicting them as terrorists or Qatari agents. Subverting the trend of social reform, Riyadh will likely afford tribal communities greater internal autonomy to exercise tribal law. The economic downturn will delay and curb ambitious projects such as Neom, but they are unlikely to be cancelled.

Support for Thai government will be heavily strained

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Thai Government ◽  
Currency Management ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thai government's clampdown on the opposition and struggle with various crises. Significance The Constitutional Court last week dissolved the opposition Future Forward Party for receiving an illegal loan from its leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit. Future Forward had in recent months emerged as a vigorous opponent of the military-backed government. Army Chief Apirat Kongsompong and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha may be relieved to be rid of the party, but there is unlikely to be any let-up in opposition pressure as the administration grapples with crises relating to military corruption, water shortage and infectious disease. Impacts The military will try to help the government manage an approaching drought and the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus. The central bank will step up currency management to keep Thai exports as competitive as possible amid the economic downturn. Erstwhile Future Forward MPs may form a new opposition party.

Costa Rica protests to hinder Alvarado’s reforms

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Value Added Tax ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Form Part ◽  
Evangelical Movement ◽  
The Government

Significance The demonstrations form part of a broader backlash against the government’s newly introduced value-added tax (VAT) and indicate the depth of popular feeling building against President Carlos Alvarado. Impacts The risk of watering down the new VAT regime will raise concerns among investors about the government’s commitment to fiscal rigour. Delaying VAT implementation would also force the government to cut social spending in order to hit its fiscal deficit goals. The evangelical movement will demonstrate its strength in further protests throughout Alvarado’s term.

Kazakh transition accelerates with early election

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
Public Displays ◽  
Security Services ◽  
The Government ◽  
Will Force ◽  
Proactive Measures ◽  
Short Time

Significance Tokayev announced the early election in a televised address just three weeks after Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned after 30 years in power. Tokayev has spent his short time in office emphasising policy continuity and offering public displays of deference to Nazarbayev, still the pre-eminent political force in politics. Impacts Public-sector workers will be the focus of a mass drive to secure widespread participation in the election. The transition period will likely see more proactive measures by the security services, including against nascent protest movements. The timing of Russian proposals to build a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan will force the government to give them serious consideration.

Russia readies for long economic struggle

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Plan ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
European Trade ◽  
The Government ◽  
Key Industries ◽  
Sovereign Credit Rating

Significance The currency, which has fallen 14% against the dollar so far this year, fell another 3% in morning European trade, sinking below 70 to the dollar. The rate cut comes after the January 26 downgrade by international ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) of Russia's sovereign credit rating to junk status (from BBB- to BB+) and the January 28 announcement of an economic plan that will see the government spend 2.34 trillion rubles (35 billion dollars) to bolster key industries, including banks, and to boost its troubled economy particularly in the regions. As part of the measures, Moscow plans a 10% cut in the budgets of all but a handful of ministries. Defence, agriculture and social spending are spared. Impacts Discussions between liberals are not as important to economic policy as they were. Further measures to boost the economy are likely in order to forestall more rating agencies downgrading Russia to junk status. The Security Council will exert greater influence over economic policy, further marginalising economic liberals.

Environmental enforcement pressures will mount in Peru

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Energy Development ◽  
Extractive Industries ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Environmental Enforcement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Will ◽  
Environmental Norms ◽  
The Government ◽  
Will Force

Subject Environmental protection. Significance Environmental protection has moved up Peru’s policy agenda, especially in the Amazon region. However, the government lacks the power -- and arguably still the will -- to enforce restrictions on uses that harm the environment, notably energy development and road building. Pressure for better environmental protection has hitherto come chiefly from abroad. Impacts Indigenous organisations will gain influence in the policy sphere. Extractive industries will come under pressure to adapt their practices to environmental norms. Climate change will force the government to take issues of deforestation more seriously.

Suriname electoral reform will boost re-election bid

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Development ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political and economic outlook. Significance President Desi Bouterse’s government has proposed a new electoral reform designed to come into effect before the presidential and legislative elections in 2020. The reform aims to ban electoral alliances between parties, which opposition groups have argued would unfairly disadvantage smaller political parties. It represents an attempt by the Bouterse administration to shore up its position going into the 2020 elections, amid an atmosphere of popular dissatisfaction with the government. Impacts The reform would pave the way for a further NDP victory in 2020, when Bouterse will be 75 years old. The NDP will seek to maintain its legislative majority, which is likely to see a boost in social spending in the run-up to the elections. The dubious motivation behind the electoral reform is unlikely to deter investment; investors have largely priced in the NDP’s dominance. Although international influence in Suriname has waned, future interest in oil development could reverse this.

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