Diversification will be hard amid Kazakhstan slowdown

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Single Industry ◽  
The Government

Significance The slowdown of 2015 continued through the first half of 2016 and may develop into recession by year-end. Depressed prices for Kazakhstan's main exports, inflation and falling consumer demand form a nexus of problems with which the government is struggling to cope. Impacts Oil production is set to rise to replenish the treasury, despite the OPEC plan for output caps. The search for new export markets will prompt the government to review existing and forge new ties. Social unrest is most likely in single-industry towns. The government will try to maintain current social spending levels to avoid unrest.

Azerbaijan looks to gas as oil's importance wanes

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Strong Ties ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
The Impact

Subject Impact of oil output cuts on Azerbaijan. Significance Azerbaijan has agreed to cut oil production in the first half of 2017 in support of the agreement reached by OPEC and non-OPEC states. It can ill afford a further loss of revenues, but the bigger picture is that oil production is already on a downward curve. Impacts To avoid social unrest, the government will need to allocate spending to mitigate the impact of rising prices. Fiscal pressures may rein in lavish spending on Russian military hardware. The government will maintain strong ties with Turkey as an export route and security ally.

Morocco can get through COVID-19 and drought shocks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Job Creation ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Private Funding ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Strategic Investment ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Agricultural Yields

Significance This follows an earlier downgrade from Fitch. Morocco’s principal exports -- automotive, phosphates and tourism in particular -- are vulnerable to global market volatility. Besides the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the country has also experienced a drought that hit agricultural yields and caused a rise in unemployment. Impacts The government will prioritise investments in sectors that will boost job creation to contain the risk of social unrest. Morocco’s automotive sector is expected to see a contraction in sales of 10-20% in its main European market over the next three years. The government will struggle to attract private funding for its new strategic investment fund as investment flows plummet globally. Phosphates will be central to Morocco’s strategy of developing both export markets and fertiliser processing facilities in Africa.

External factors will prod Russia into climate action

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Carbon Emissions Trading ◽  
Emissions Trading Scheme ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trading Scheme ◽  
The Eu

Significance This is still tentative planning but it indicates the Kremlin is being spurred into action by looming curbs on high-carbon products in China and the EU, Russia's key export markets. Russia has so far resisted calls for more ambitious commitments. Impacts Siberian forest fires will focus public attention on the environment, if not global warming. Blame for the wildfires, as with other environmental problems, will be weaponised in elite infighting. The government is interested in developing cheap, green hydrogen. A pilot carbon emissions trading scheme in Sakhalin could be scaled up to other parts of Russia.

France’s Macron seeks to relaunch economic reforms

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Social Care ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mandatory Vaccination

Significance Among those policies are measures targeted at youth unemployment and social care for older people, aimed at attracting left-wing support. Most importantly, Macron has committed to relaunching his controversial pension reforms, which triggered widespread social unrest in late 2019 and early 2020. Impacts Mandatory vaccination could trigger protests and legal action against the government. The centre-right Republicans could take support from Macron if they unite around a strong presidential candidate over the coming months. Macron will likely push for looser EU fiscal rules to facilitate more government spending beyond 2022.

Global Cities versus Rustbelt Realities: The Dilemmas of Urban Development in Russia

Slavic Review ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (2) ◽  
pp. 365-389
Author(s):  
Stephen Crowley
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Urban Centers ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Single Industry ◽  
Government Planning ◽  
The Government ◽  
Developed World ◽  
Vast Territory

Following the argument of urban geographers that “superstar” cities are the engines of economic growth in a globalized era, Kremlin advisor Aleksei Kudrin and others have argued that Russia should invest in a handful of major cities including Moscow and St. Petersburg. That advice has now become part of official government planning. In stark contrast to the developed world, however, Russia's population is not concentrated in a few urban centers, but in several hundred medium-sized cities and towns, many distributed across Russia's vast territory, often far from other metropolitan agglomerations. These include more than a hundred officially-designated “monotowns,” whose fate is dependent on a single industry, which the government ranks according to the severity of their “socio-economic conditions.” This paper will explore the dilemmas faced by monotowns in particular, and the challenge to authorities of balancing the need for new economic growth from urban metropolises against preventing social unrest in declining industrial communities.

Recovery will not reverse poverty woes in Argentina

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Income Distribution ◽  
Social Indicators ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Will Force ◽  
Structural Poverty

Significance In 2016, the economic downturn boosted unemployment, especially in the manufacturing and construction industries, while inflation undermined real incomes, hitting the poorest households the hardest. The government extended social aid, but this was not enough to prevent a worsening of income distribution and a rise of poverty. Impacts Strike and protest threats are mounting and will force the government to boost social spending to avoid a crisis. Spillover effects from any recovery may improve social indicators but will not overcome high levels of structural poverty. The government is over-optimistic about the extent of recovery in advance of the October elections.

Nigeria’s president will struggle to contain threats

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
Inner Circle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The bombing is the latest setback for the government. Recent military gains against Boko Haram and increasing oil production in the Niger Delta have failed to offset the distinct governance problems facing Abuja. Amid a deepening economic crisis, President Muhammadu Buhari is facing challenges within the ruling alliance and emergent political threats nationwide. Impacts Presidential succession manoeuvring could undermine unity, leading to ruling party infighting and a possible contested nomination process. Key members of Buhari’s inner circle will come under pressure to resign as new scandals emerge. Populist alternatives to the president will surface, as citizens grow frustrated with economic stagnation and high prices.

Oil development will challenge Guyana's institutions

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Domestic Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Development ◽  
Government Oversight ◽  
Regulatory Bodies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Institutional Challenges

Subject The institutional challenges of an oil bonanza. Significance With the ExxonMobil-led consortium firming up plans to begin oil production in 2020, attention has turned to the readiness of Guyana’s domestic institutions to provide adequate monitoring and oversight of the group’s operations. Impacts Doubts over institutional quality will continue to dog the authorities and the credibility of government oversight. Both oil development and the rise of new regulatory bodies will strain the supply of qualified labour, hitting job markets. The government will struggle to channel the expected boom in revenues effectively.

French reform drive could slow down

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Government

Subject France's reform agenda. Significance On September 7, yellow vest protests resumed in French cities, albeit in small numbers. It is, however, a warning for President Emmanuel Macron that social unrest is still a threat as the government seeks to drive ahead with stage two of its controversial reform agenda. Impacts While France is less exposed to trade disputes than such countries as Germany, recession in the latter would slow France's growth further. Reducing unemployment and avoiding a public sector backlash will be crucial for Macron’s expected re-election bid in 2022. Marine le Pen’s far-right National Rally remains Macron’s only significant political rival, which increases his chances of re-election. Domestic stability will enable Paris to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.

War could leave Libyans without water

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Water Supplies ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance Greater Tripoli is particularly vulnerable to any disruption of the infrastructure, while the COVID-19 pandemic makes adequate water supply to the capital and other urban centres even more critical. Impacts Fresh disruption of water supplies would fuel public anger and exacerbate social unrest, probably causing more armed clashes. Service disruptions and unrest would worsen tensions within the Government of National Accord, further undermining its authority. Water shortages will also undercut efforts to develop Libya’s agricultural sector as a way of diversifying its oil-dependent economy.

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