Qatari litigation targets reputation, not resolution

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Test Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges

Subject Qatari legal disputes with Gulf rivals. Significance More than two years after a bloc of regional rivals began an economic and political boycott of Qatar, there are no signs of rapprochement on the horizon. In the meantime, Doha has launched a series of legal challenges against the boycotting countries at the WTO and elsewhere. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has responded with counterclaims against Qatar. Impacts The Gulf diplomatic crisis will likely only be resolved when the blockading countries find it expedient to bring it to a close. Saudi and UAE use of the national security exemption will offer further test cases for WTO dispute resolution. The United States may seek to intervene to encourage bilateral deals to prevent an unwelcome ruling on the national security exemption.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

Crises and 'pivot' will boost US intelligence agencies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
National Security Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Public Scrutiny

Subject The US intelligence community in a year after purported reforms. Significance On December 29, an agreement between the United States, Japan and South Korea to share intelligence on North Korea went into effect. This ended a year in which the US intelligence community was the subject of broad domestic public scrutiny in the light of continued fallout from former National Security Agency (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden's leaks to a Senate report on the CIA's use of torture. The White House's support for reforms has been watched by tech and telecoms businesses that have lost considerable revenue from reputational damage as a result of the growing awareness of requirements on them of US intelligence activities. Impacts The Obama administration will rely on the US intelligence community as its main counterterrorist instrument. A Republican Congress will be less likely to support intelligence reforms, though only marginally so. There is no indication that the balance of power on intelligence issues between the executive and legislative branches has shifted.

Ankara hopes its Syrian invasion may now go ahead

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type

Subject Turkish objectives in Syria. Significance US Senator Lindsey Graham’s visit to Ankara on January 18 passed off in an exceptionally cordial atmosphere, completely unlike the frigid reception for President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton four days earlier. Graham and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan talked for two-and-a-half hours and said they had reached agreement over Syria. Impacts The risk is growing of a dispute between the Syrian Kurds and the United States. Relations between Turkey and Russia are strained; Russia and the United States will combine to protect Manbij. Key northern Syrian routes through Idlib may be blocked and HTS will put up tough resistance if attacked.

Iran is set to become a formidable cyber actor

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cyber Warfare ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Primary Target ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technology Sector

Subject Iran's cyber capabilities. Significance Tehran has invested in its technology sector in recent years to become one of the world’s most cyber-capable nations. Though perhaps not on the same level as China and Russia, it is not far behind. Iranian hackers have carried out successful attacks in a number of countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United States. Impacts Saudi Arabia is Iran’s primary target for cyber operations, followed by Saudi supporters such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Iran will augment its own cyber warfare capabilities through proxies such as the 'Syrian Electronic Army'. US reversals over the nuclear deal may lead Iran to unleash a new wave of cyberattacks against US interests.

United Arab Emirates military will use proxy warfare

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Islam ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Industry ◽  
The Us

Significance The UAE military is deeply concerned about both direct and indirect threats from Iran and from Sunni political Islam. It has therefore focused on building alliances with global and regional partner militaries, seen as more useful than developing unilateral capabilities. Impacts The UAE military will not engage in the current Qatar crisis which is political and economic. Abu Dhabi will prioritise alliances with the United States, Europe and Israel to deter Iran. Lobbying for the transfer of the US airbase from Qatar to the UAE is unlikely to succeed. The UAE will build its defence industry to function as an arsenal for regional allies.

China’s ‘new media’ create new markets and new risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New Media ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Live Streaming ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Growth ◽  
Short Video ◽  
The Government

Subject Live streaming and short video in China. Significance Live streaming and ‘short video’ apps have fast become mainstream in China. The international growth of Chinese-owned short-video app TikTok has generated fears in the United States that its data policies and censorship constitute a national security threat. Impacts China’s array of internet regulations make it easy for the government to find fault with a firm whose actions it disapproves of. Future laws in China will directly govern the use of the algorithms tech firms use to monitor and censor content. US politicians will be increasingly aware, and wary, of Chinese tech firms that collect data on US citizens.

Iran-US nuclear deal revival efforts will face hurdles

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
President Elect ◽  
National Security Adviser

Significance US President-elect Joe Biden supports the agreement, from which his predecessor Donald Trump withdrew, and has named as his national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who under former President Barack Obama began the secret outreach that fostered the JCPOA. Impacts Biden will immediately lower the temperature by facilitating trade in medical supplies to fight COVID-19. An end to the ‘Muslim ban’ will likely mean Iranian citizens can again travel to the United States, pandemic permitting. Iran may halt or slow steps that violate JCPOA limits, such as the installation of advanced centrifuges.

Momentum will build in Vietnamese-US relations

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Guidance Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Legal Proceedings ◽  
Dam Building ◽  
Maritime Disputes

Significance Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was in Hanoi last month. In the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance document released by the White House in March, Vietnam was identified as one of Washington’s leading partners in the Indo-Pacific. Impacts Stronger Vietnamese-US relations may embolden Hanoi to initiate international legal proceedings over its maritime disputes with Beijing. Vietnam will urge the United States to do more to highlight the environmental impact of dam-building on the Mekong by upriver countries. Hanoi’s burgeoning ties with US adversary Moscow could have a negative impact on its relations with Washington.

Egyptian military build-up aims at officers’ loyalty

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Regional Power ◽  
Fighter Aircraft ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Procurement ◽  
The Military ◽  
Weapons Systems

Significance Egypt has started to take delivery of an array of weapons systems, including advanced fighter aircraft and naval vessels, from Russia and France. These orders supplement equipment from the United States, which has been Egypt’s main source of weapons since the 1978 Camp David Accords. Amid an acute economic crisis, Cairo’s military procurement spree raises questions about regime motives. Impacts The rapidity of the military build-up may mean that the army will be unable to man the advanced weapons systems with qualified operators. Egypt is purchasing much of the military hardware on credit, which could further the decline of the struggling Egyptian economy. Egypt could use its newly acquired hardware to vie for regional power and influence with Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

Next US president will confront nuclear disorder

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Presidential Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Policy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nuclear Response

Significance As Barack Obama eyes the January 2017 presidential transition, Washington's decades-long goal of a stable global nuclear order appears to be under threat from multiple quarters. Obama was mulling a US nuclear posture shift in August, whereby he would declare that the United States would only launch its nuclear deterrent in response to a nuclear strike by an adversary, ruling out a nuclear response to a conventional attack on US or allied forces. Impacts Deviation by Washington from support of disarmament and existing legal instruments could strain ties with some US allies. Trump's unorthodox positions on nuclear policy will promote defections by national security Republicans to Clinton's camp. A candidate's campaign trail rhetoric is likely to influence the credibility of the US nuclear deterrent once in office.

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