Thai palace politics portends long-term risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sharp Criticism ◽  
Legal Controls ◽  
The Military

Subject Palace politics Significance Military courts earlier this month handed down the most severe sentences thus far in lese majeste cases, sentencing two people to 30 and 28 years in prison for criticising the monarchy on Facebook. The sentence, which has drawn sharp criticism from the United States and the UN, reflects a broader trend of tighter political and legal controls by the military in the context of the monarch's declining health. Impacts Domestic consumption will suffer as long as political uncertainty regarding the return of civilian rule persists. The palace has become more partisan since 2006; this is likely to continue after the royal transition. Lese majeste prosecutions will damage US-Thai relations, but Washington will not expand sanctions.

India’s vaccine diplomacy brings money and influence

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pharmaceutical Ingredients ◽  
The World

Significance Last week, its partners in the ‘Quad’ grouping -- the United States, Japan and Australia -- agreed to help increase its vaccine manufacturing and exporting capacity. Each of the Quad members is wary of China, which like India is gifting and selling coronavirus jabs around the world. Impacts India’s manufacturing sector will attract more foreign direct investment. Greater cooperation over supply chains will help strengthen India-Australia ties. Indian pharma will in the long term aim to ease dependence on imports of active pharmaceutical ingredients from China.

Weaker AKP would reduce Turkish president's authority

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Proportional Representation ◽  
Representation System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Fiscal And Monetary Policy ◽  
At Home

Significance The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) should easily get the most votes, but it faces a likely setback and a dent in its authority. Weakening support from its voters and Turkey's proportional representation system are likely to drive its number of parliamentary seats down from the 327 out of 550 seats it won in 2011, perhaps even to the point where an overall majority is in doubt. Impacts Market confidence and the lira may weaken, but will not deteriorate drastically, unless AKP is forced out of office -- a remote scenario. Fiscal and monetary policy may be loosened to win support until a new government able to last for a full four-year term is in office. A politically weaker AKP risks long-term splits, but these will not emerge unless there have been months of instability. Growing internal discord -- and the government's defiant response to its critics at home and abroad -- may isolate Turkey internationally. The United States and EU will continue to avoid confrontation with the Erdogan government as far as possible.

Iran gas can diversify European supplies in long term

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
To Come

Significance The deal reached between Iran and the P5+1 negotiating group (UN Security Council permanent members plus Germany) on July 14 promises to end most sanctions on the country, in return for suspension and monitoring of its nuclear programme. If ratified by all parties, it will create opportunities for an expansion of Iran's gas production and exports. Iran is the holder of the world's largest gas reserves, according to BP estimates. It is also the third-largest producer (after the United States and Russia, and probably having overtaken Qatar during 2015), and the fourth-largest consumer. Impacts Iran could increase gas exports by advancing projects stalled by sanctions, although most of these will take some years to come to fruition. Iran would seek to attract foreign investment into its gas industry to increase production and exports in the longer term. If this occurs, Iran will compete with other gas exporters, particularly Russia, into the 2020s.

Gulf rivals will likely increase US lobbying efforts

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Influence ◽  
Gulf States

Subject Gulf states lobbying in the United States. Significance The Gulf states have long been among the largest spenders on lobbying initiatives in the United States, promoting their economic interests and perspectives on regional geopolitics. This has intensified since 2017 as the Qatar dispute has polarised the region and both sides have sought to win over crucial US decision-makers. These efforts have often backfired and drawn accusations of improper behaviour that could damage bilateral relationships and may affect US domestic politics. Impacts Others considering influencing US policy will look carefully at the successes but also the controversies this lobbying has generated. There is a risk of long-term damage to some Gulf-US relationships amid growing suspicion of foreign influence. Robert Mueller’s probe into the Trump campaign and Russia, which may conclude this year, may also implicate some Gulf states.

Outsider Ko Wen-je could become Taiwan's president

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape

Subject Profile of Ko Wen-je. Significance There are strong indications that Ko Wen-je, the independent mayor of Taipei, will run for election as Taiwan’s president in January 2020. Presidential hopefuls often launch their election campaigns with US trips to shore up relations with Washington, Taiwan’s key security backer; Ko will make a nine-day visit to the United States later this month. He also stated last month that he was considering forming a new political party; the single reason he would need a party of his own would be to make a run for the presidency. Impacts Ko would be a controversial and probably one-term president. Ko could have a game-changing impact in the short term but is unlikely to alter Taiwan's political landscape fundamentally in the long term. Ko would likely take a more moderate stance on China than Tsai does. Ko's outspokenness is what makes him popular, but it also makes him prone to gaffes that could ultimately undermine him.

US-led air campaign will shape long-term fight in Iraq

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Actual Impact ◽  
Political Choices ◽  
External Actors ◽  
Military Campaign

Significance The United States and Iran are both fighting against ISG in Iraq, but their rivalry elsewhere, such as taking opposite sides in Syria and Yemen, and historic enmity has prevented explicit cooperation. They are likely to be the two most significant external actors in helping Baghdad reclaim Iraqi territory from ISG. Impacts The symbolic impact of capturing Tikrit would be significant, but its actual impact on the wider military campaign will be limited. It would provide Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi time to prepare Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) to a greater level of readiness. However, rapid success of militia forces could lead to even more difficult political choices.

Tarnished Kenyan poll will prolong crisis

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type

Significance Kenyatta's determination to push on with the poll comes after one of the seven IEBC commissioners, Roselyn Akombe, admitted publicly on October 18 that the IEBC could not guarantee a credible presidential election and subsequently fled to the United States. Her public admission came a week after Raila Odinga, the main opposition National Super Alliance (NASA) candidate, withdrew from the poll for which Kenyatta is vigorously campaigning. Impacts Prolonged political uncertainty will confirm to neighbouring countries the risks of regional infrastructure routes going through Kenya. A new Jubilee government may take some measures to curb the independence of institutions such as the courts. Rising civil society pressure calling for postponement of the poll is unlikely to be listened to by the authorities.

Philippines martial law likely to be extended

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Habeas Corpus ◽  
Martial Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Proclamation 216 was made after Islamic State (IS)-linked Maute group militants attacked and occupied Marawi City on May 23. The president also suspended habeas corpus in Mindanao on May 24. Impacts Extending martial law in Mindanao would likely see further communist guerrilla attacks. Philippine security links with Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and the United States will deepen. Appeals against the Supreme Court's decision could be lodged but are unlikely to work. The military will gain increased political influence through martial law.

The Influence of Political Culture upon Cross-Cultural Misperceptions and Foreign Policy: The United States and Germany

2003 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Kalberg
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Government ◽  
Technology Products ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Middle Range ◽  
Trade Sanctions ◽  
The Military

The disagreement between Germany and the United States over thewar in Iraq was massive. During the winter of 2002, many observersspoke of a long-term rift between these longstanding allies and atotal loss of credibility on both sides. No one can doubt, regardlessof recent healing overtures,1 that the German-American partnershiphas been altered and significantly weakened. It has suffered a blowfar more damaging than those that accompanied past conflicts over,for example, Ostpolitik, the neutron bomb, the Soviet gas pipeline,the flow of high technology products to the Soviet Union, the impositionof trade sanctions in 1980 against the military government inPoland, the stationing in the late 1970s of middle-range missiles onGerman soil, and the modernization of short-range missiles in 1989.

Pakistan’s IMF ties could be increasingly tense

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Future Role

Significance Islamabad wants to ease some of the loan’s conditions. Separately, the United States, the IMF’s largest shareholder, recently said it would reassess its relations with Pakistan. Washington has concerns over Islamabad’s future role in Afghanistan, given the Pakistani military’s long-standing ties with the Taliban. Impacts Pakistan will increasingly rely on macroeconomic support from key partner China. Islamabad will step up efforts to get external players to engage politically with Afghanistan’s Taliban government. The ‘Kamyab Pakistan Programme’, a microcredit scheme designed to help poor people, may help raise living standards in the long term.

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