Mongolia mine move raises nationalisation fears

Subject The sale of the Erdenet mine. Significance The day before parliamentary elections in June last year, Prime Minister Saikhanbileg Chimed announced the sale of 49% of shares held by the Russian government in the Erdenet Mining Corporation and the Mongolrostsvetmet mining company to Mongolia Copper Corporation, an unknown private Mongolian company. Subsequent parliamentary inquiry concluded that the sale was unconstitutional and the government ordered the shares transferred to the state on February 16 this year. The government’s actions received wide public support while polls reveal that the electorate views corruption as the main obstacle to Mongolia’s development Impacts Talk of 'nationalisation' in the Western media threatens to derail Mongolia's efforts to fix its image and attract foreign investors. The unusual circumstances of the sale raise suspicions of corruption and collusion between Mongolia's previous government and largest bank. The new government's will to scrutinise sale demonstrates the strength of Mongolia’s democracy.

Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.


Subject Declining threat of India's Maoists. Significance Some 62 Naxalites -- Maoist rebels -- recently surrendered to security forces in Chhattisgarh, where around 125,000 police and paramilitary troops were deployed to safeguard this week’s first phase of the state elections, which the Naxalites want boycotted. Home Minister Rajnath Singh last month said Naxalites would be eliminated in India within 1-3 years. Impacts The government is unlikely to prioritise land reform in the lead-up to the 2019 general election. Some states are likely to see outbreaks of Hindu-Muslim religious violence ahead of the national poll. Singh will likely remain home minister if Prime Minister Narendra Modi wins a second term.


Significance In an interview to Alsat, the TV channel that has most influence among North Macedonia's Albanians, Mickoski argued that overcoming the present government was of common interest to both the North Macedonian and Albanian electoral blocs. Mickoski and VMRO are clearly buoyed by the opposition New Democracy (ND) victory in Greek parliamentary elections on July 7. They are trying to emulate ND's winning tactic by capitalising on the weaknesses of Prime Minister Zoran Zaev's government and growing dissatisfaction in North Macedonia. Impacts The government has been unable to stabilise the country, with government and opposition failing to agree on even minimal common ground. This is likely to lead to a new bout of external pressure and initiatives to break the internal political deadlock. Skopje's stalling on reform and the chill in relations with neighbours weaken its chances to get a date for EU membership negotiations.


Significance Resurgent COVID-19 cases and policy chaos have weakened Netanyahu politically and are undermining public trust in government. Meanwhile, allies of the prime minister have implied that he may seek to trigger fresh elections later this year amid frustrations over impasses within his government. Impacts Despite resurgent case numbers, the healthcare system appears able to cope with the additional burdens. The government will be reluctant to order a second full lockdown, fearing the economic hit and that people may simply ignore the rules. The preoccupation with the pandemic has delayed addressing other issues, most notably the state budget.


Significance These scandals are serious for the government because they reflect poorly on dozens of Conservative MPs as well as Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In addition to undermining the government’s public support, they have also damaged Johnson’s support among party colleagues. Impacts Anger towards the government could grow in poorer regions as tax rises and spending cuts are gradually introduced. The persistence of corruption stories threatens to further damage the United Kingdom’s international reputation. Domestic pressures and ‘Brexit fatigue’ may ultimately prevent London from triggering a trade war with the EU.


Subject Coalition stability. Significance One month after October's inconclusive parliamentary elections, the largest party in the new parliament, centre-right Citizens for Bulgaria's European Development (GERB), formed a disparate coalition of four political formations that ranged from centre-left (Alternative for Bulgarian Renaissance -- ABV) to far-right (Patriotic Front -- PF). Four months later, Prime Minister Boyko Borisov's greatest achievement is that his unlikely government is surviving and the country's political stability is not seriously threatened either on the streets or in parliament. The downside is that much of the government's energy is spent on ensuring its survival, with little time or effort left for expected reforms. Impacts The reform process may be sacrificed to the needs of stability and electoral gain. The government faces no visible opposition, with BSP largely impotent, and DPS tacitly working with Borisov. Further instability in Ukraine could have an impact on Bulgaria's security and supplies of gas.


Subject Political and economic outlook. Significance The national unity government of President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe completed its first year in July. After a phase of poor cohesion and unpopular decisions, the government is regaining public support. Sirisena, leader of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and Wickremesinghe, leader of the United National Party (UNP), have extended their alliance to 2020, boosting political stability. Yet significant economic and political challenges remain. Impacts Dependence on Chinese investment is unavoidable, but Colombo will seek new partners. Rajapaksa will remain the most important political challenge for the government. Ethnic reconciliation is a distant dream, but overt tensions are subsiding.


Subject Prospects for Pakistan in 2017. Significance Next year Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government enters its last year in office before competing for a second term in parliamentary elections in early 2018. The government faces rising political pressure from both the opposition and judiciary, and a mixed diplomatic and economic environment.


Subject Anti-corruption campaign. Significance Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Chahed is pursuing a high-profile campaign against corruption, which has won him public support but also raised questions about his reliance on emergency powers. Anger over corruption has become widespread, and this campaign has improved Chahed’s standing at a time when his coalition government was criticised for ineffectiveness. Impacts Despite fractures within the ruling coalition, the alliance between Nidaa Tounes and Ennahda is in both parties’ interests and will endure. The democratic transition is making progress, but the government has only piecemeal remedies to counter widespread socio-economic protests. Coming municipal elections could restore some of the influence of Islamist party Ennahda.


Subject The post-election political scene. Significance The incumbent Socialist Party of Albania (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama won parliamentary elections held on June 28. This result ensures a broad continuation of the previous government's reformist and integrationist policy stance. Impacts Although PSSh has a parliamentary majority, it will have to cohabit with an opposition president after July 24. Reform of the justice system, found in a survey to top the list of citizens' wants, would improve Albania's image for foreign investors. Rama will continue championing the rights of ethnic Albanians in periodic confrontation with Slav populations in regional states.


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