Taiwan's security depends on more than military power

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Arms Sales ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Chinese Military ◽  
The Government ◽  
Military Activity ◽  
National Defence

Subject Taiwan's defence policies. Significance Defence minister Feng Shih-kuan announced last month that the government intends to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP, a 50% increase from 2016, to counter the growing threat from mainland China’s military. Much of that budget will be used for procurement of advanced weaponry from the United States, Taiwan's chief weapons supplier, and to boost the domestic defence industry, including an ambitious plan launched last month to build submarines locally. Impacts Chinese military activity around Taiwan, elevated since President Tsai Ing-wen took office, will probably increase further. Beijing is more likely than previously to direct its anger over arms sales at Taipei rather than Washington. Taipei will seek to expand relations with Washington beyond arms sales, pressing in particular for a free-trade agreement. Taiwan will remain militarily vulnerable no matter how much is spent on national defence.

Economic woe presents greatest risk to Thai government

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Direct Control ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Thai Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Problems facing the Thai government. Significance Thailand’s government, led by a party with ties to the junta that ruled until July, is facing political and economic headwinds as it tries to establish civilian rule. The king is consolidating his authority, political opponents are pushing back on the ruling coalition and exports are weakening, raising quandaries for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. Impacts A worsening trade outlook will prompt the government to step up efforts to secure a free trade agreement with the EU. Thailand and the United States will take time to strengthen bilateral ties, nominally mended when Prayut visited Washington in 2017. The army units under the king’s direct control could provide cover for rival factions to Prayut’s in the event of another military coup.

Abe takes on farming lobby, paving way for TPP

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Traditional Farming ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
Regulatory Protection ◽  
The Government

Subject Reforms to Japan's agricultural sector and their impact on trade policy. Significance The government is about to pass legislation curbing the powers of the JA Group, the sprawling conglomerate that dominates the country's farming sector. JA has lobbied successfully for decades for import barriers and subsidies, particularly for rice, and is the most formidable opponent of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hopes to sign with the United States. Impacts Economic and political forces are inexorably chipping away at the traditional farming sector's political power and regulatory protection. As commercial farmers benefit from deregulation, their weight as a constituency will grow, making further liberalisation easier. In boldly confronting the feared farmers' lobby and winning, Abe signals his seriousness about structural reform.

AIIB shows increased US-China institutional rivalry

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Regional Institutions ◽  
Institutional Competition

Significance London's actions drew a harsh, if unofficial, reaction from the White House. It underscores the growing rivalry between the United States and China over the changing architecture of global and regional institutions. Impacts Institutional competition will not spill over much into the security field, where China's neighbours seek to balance it. Increased European involvement in South-east Asia will accelerate movement towards an EU-ASEAN free trade agreement. Increased international prestige could help Chinese President Xi Jinping's domestic clout.

USMCA brings Mexico broad continuity, with some risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Export Sector ◽  
The One ◽  
United States Mexico

Subject The new USMCA. Significance Mexico, Canada and the United States agreed on September 30 to a new trilateral free trade agreement, to replace NAFTA. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) presents a mixed scenario for Mexico’s economy. On the one hand, Mexican officials and businesses are relieved that the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations has been resolved. On the other, the agreement imposes new rules in the auto sector, which could have negative consequences for Mexico’s most important manufacturing industry. Impacts New auto industry rules could raise prices and disrupt supply chains in Mexico’s key export sector. Despite the USMCA’s provisions for higher wages, it will in practice do little to raise them in Mexico. Mexico remains vulnerable to the Trump administration’s protectionist whims.

NAFTA withdrawal would have extensive economic effects

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Indirect Impacts ◽  
Deal Making

Subject Outlook for NAFTA. Significance Representatives from Canada, Mexico and the United States completed the fifth round of negotiations on modernising the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) last month. Most US opinion sees NAFTA as beneficial for the economy, but the administration of President Donald Trump is proposing increasingly unpalatable changes from Mexican and Canadian perspectives. Impacts Political developments in Mexico suggest that it will not cave in to US demands that it considers to be unreasonable. The indirect impacts of NAFTA collapse could be large; supply chain dislocation might raise prices and interest rates, dampening activity. US NAFTA withdrawal could give impetus to other countries' cooperation; Canada and Mexico are part of the ex-US Trans-Pacific Partnership. Trump could lose much public support if he withdraws from the deal, making it much more difficult to pass other legislation. Approaching elections in all three countries in 2018 will add a sense of urgency to the renegotiation process.

Prospects for Mexico and Central America to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Central America ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Business As Usual

Subject Prospects for Mexico and Central America to end-2017. Significance The economies of Mexico and Central America will maintain a ‘business as usual’ stance until renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) formally starts later in the year. Growth momentum in the region is therefore likely to be maintained for the rest of 2017. Nonetheless, threats to trade and migration links with the United States, and to remittance income, will drive uncertainty.

Canada will struggle to diversify trade

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Government Procurement ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic News ◽  
American Trade

Significance US efforts to renegotiate NAFTA were already tense, but this round of talks comes after Canada filed a wide-ranging complaint at the WTO over US trade practices. Meanwhile, the implementation of the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and the revival of an eleven-member version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) without the United States could bring some good economic news to Canada. However, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been rebuffed in their efforts to begin free trade agreement (FTA) talks with China. Impacts Canada’s WTO case could make Trump more likely to leave NAFTA after this negotiation round. Resumed WTO tariffs in North American trade may see higher lumber, minerals, oil and other commodities prices. Bureaucratic interventions defending national interests in Canadian and EU government procurement will blunt CETA’s potential.

Growing US Republican Taiwan focus may provoke Beijing

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance Separately, five Republican senators, led by Florida's Marco Rubio, wrote to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on February 7, requesting she invite Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen to address a joint Congress session. Impacts The proposed US-Taiwan free trade agreement is presently unlikely to advance. The Trump administration might be more willing than others to defend Taiwan, but relations with China will take priorty. Taiwan is exporting its political divisions to the United States; the main opposition Kuomintang will open a Washington office this year.

Honduras rebound from 2020 recession will be sluggish

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Central American ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Situation ◽  
Increased Activity ◽  
Poor Infrastructure

Significance Hotels and restaurants, private construction and manufacturing suffered the sharpest declines. A gradual reopening of the economy since June should drive increased activity in the second half of the year unless the health situation worsens, forcing the government to back-pedal. Impacts Inflation will remain within the central bank’s target (5.5% plus or minus 1 percentage point) on the back of moderate oil prices. Corruption, violent crime and poor infrastructure will hinder Honduras’s post-pandemic economic recovery. Implementation of the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement will help diversify Honduras’s exports.

Canada-US tariff troubles may flare more broadly

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
North American ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type

Significance Canada has a temporary exemption, but Trump is calling for North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiations to be completed speedily. The NAFTA and tariffs issues have, therefore, become fused, raising questions about the outlook for Canada-US foreign relations. Impacts In the short term, Canadian steel companies may benefit from reduced foreign providers’ presence in the United States. Canada’s NAFTA negotiators will not respond to the Trump team’s threat to impose tariffs. Canadian businesses will begin to migrate south to take advantage of the new and more competitive US tax regime. Canada’s efforts to diversify its foreign trade and decrease US dependence will further accelerate, but still face hurdles.

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