Nigerian government could secure elusive Delta peace

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Conflict ◽  
Niger Delta Region ◽  
Peace Initiatives ◽  
Nigerian Government ◽  
New Vision ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Borrowing

Subject Niger Delta peace initiatives Significance The Nigerian presidency on May 6 announced an increase of almost 30 billion naira (95 million dollars) in amnesty payments to militants in the Niger Delta region as part of the government's ‘New Vision for Niger Delta’. Last year, attacks on oil infrastructure saw production fall to an average 1.6 million barrels per day according to OPEC. In recent months, Acting President Yemi Osinbajo visited stakeholders in several Niger Delta states as the government seeks a lasting solution to the regional conflict. Impacts A fall in oil prices could undermine the government’s ability to meet its financial obligations in the Delta. Buhari's absence may embolden the opposition People’s Democratic Party in the Niger Delta, where they control all states. Proposed large external borrowing by the government could result in renewed fiscal indiscipline and corruption.

Nigeria's electoral body will face intense scrutiny

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Niger Delta Region ◽  
Run Off ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Social Media Presence ◽  
Election Commission

Subject Nigeria's election commission. Significance Nigeria's general elections are scheduled for February and March 2019, with campaigning officially starting in November. Amid worsening divides in the ruling All Progressives Congress, the main opposition People's Democratic Party is attempting to offer a more cohesive challenge at the polls. A recent dispute between the Senate (upper house) and presidency over the electoral timetable could undermine the preparedness of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) amid worsening insecurity nationwide. Impacts A possible presidential run-off seven days after a first poll could pose logistical challenges and threaten constitutional crisis. Outbreaks of election-related violence in the Niger Delta region could hinder oil production and curtail economic recovery. The INEC will need a strong online and social media presence to both engage voters and counter 'fake news' attacks on it.

Buhari offers few answers to Nigeria's economic woes

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Civil Service ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Niger Delta Region ◽  
Fiscal Space ◽  
The Government ◽  
Local Leaders

Significance While Buhari is likely to largely follow his previous term’s economic agenda, a squeezed fiscal space, including sizable debt service payments, will test the ability of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to fulfil its ambitious election promises. Impacts Oil production in the Niger Delta region could be impacted by heightened tensions between the federal government and local leaders. There is a heightened risk of an inflation bump due to the CBN indirectly financing the government. A minimum wage rise could be accompanied by an increase in all civil service wages as both have been increased together in the past.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

Nigerian oil rebound vital for economic recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
China And India ◽  
Relative Safety ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Interventions

Significance Despite such controversies, the government is pinning hopes for economic recovery on restoring hydrocarbons production alongside longstanding plans to reduce the country’s dependence on oil. While large international oil companies are retreating to the relative safety of the deep offshore, the government will look to new partnerships with China and India for large infrastructure projects. Impacts Employment gains in the oil sector will be marginal compared to increases in the agricultural sector. Recent state interventions against oil majors are unlikely to deter future investment. Counter-insurgency operations against Boko Haram could distract from government peace efforts in the Niger Delta.

Nigeria’s president will struggle to contain threats

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
Inner Circle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The bombing is the latest setback for the government. Recent military gains against Boko Haram and increasing oil production in the Niger Delta have failed to offset the distinct governance problems facing Abuja. Amid a deepening economic crisis, President Muhammadu Buhari is facing challenges within the ruling alliance and emergent political threats nationwide. Impacts Presidential succession manoeuvring could undermine unity, leading to ruling party infighting and a possible contested nomination process. Key members of Buhari’s inner circle will come under pressure to resign as new scandals emerge. Populist alternatives to the president will surface, as citizens grow frustrated with economic stagnation and high prices.

Gabon's president will consolidate his power

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
African Union ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Government

Subject Gabonese constitutional controversy Significance The Gabonese parliament and senate, dominated by the ruling Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG), unanimously passed a revised constitution on January 10. The new constitution will reportedly not include term limits, while providing President Ali Bongo with immunity from future prosecution. The opposition, led by former African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson Jean Ping, has rejected the document and described it as a setback for democracy. Impacts The legislative elections could face a fourth postponement given the slow progress in poll preparations. The government could enter the Eurobond market once more after raising 200 million dollars in an oversubscribed August issue. Bongo's administration will likely prioritise domestic over external debtors as part of a broader plan to stimulate the economy.

Nigeria's opposition could pose renewed challenge

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South West ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
Food Inflation

Subject Nigerian opposition prospects. Significance Former President Olusegun Obasanjo on January 23 issued a scathing rebuke of President Muhammadu Buhari's performance and implored him not to run for re-election in 2019. Although yet to confirm his intentions, Buhari is expected to be the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) standard-bearer once more. Meanwhile, after four years of national opposition, the former ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP, in office 1999-2015) has overcome debilitating internal divisions and could become a serious electoral prospect once more. While this may lead to a competitive election, it could also potentially exacerbate the country’s manifold security challenges. Impacts The PDP could benefit from a proposed alteration to the electoral timetable to hold gubernatorial ahead of presidential elections. Fuel shortages and food inflation, combined with persistent underemployment and unemployment, will undermine Buhari's economic credentials. Violent election flashpoints are likely to include the central states, parts of the south-west (including Lagos) and the Niger Delta.

Moon’s legacy will last as his presidency winds down

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Korea ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
The Government

Significance Despite all this, his ruling Democratic Party (DP) has used its rare parliamentary majority to force through a raft of far-reaching legislation affecting politics, the economy and relations with North Korea. Impacts Labour and ‘fair economy’ legislation will increase costs for businesses. A third wave of COVID-19 -- the largest yet -- may finally force the government to impose a lockdown. Hopes that banning cross-border propaganda balloon launches by activists will lure Pyongyang back to engagement are unduly optimistic.

Italian stability hinges on M5S future and Salvini

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Coalition ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Litmus Test

Subject Italian political outlook. Significance On January 26, Italy’s co-ruling Democratic Party (PD) defeated Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party by 51.4% to 43.6% in elections in Emilia Romagna, a prosperous region of northern Italy. In what was a litmus test for the fragile national coalition between PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S), the PD victory has reduced the risk of a government collapse. Impacts Risk-averse investors will remain cautious about Italy over the next year. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hopes the result will give the government the stability to cut taxes to boost private sector investment. Salvini’s support could decline if he continues to personalise the League’s election campaigns.

Latent geotechnical pathogens inducing cost overruns in highway projects

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alolote Ibim Amadi ◽  
Anthony Higham
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Delta Region ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Highway Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Niger Delta Region ◽  
Geotechnical Risk

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the statistical validity of geotechnical risk factors in accounting for cost overruns in highway projects. The study hypothesises that “latent pathogens” because of mismanaged geotechnical risk, which lay dormant in organisational practices of highway agencies, trigger cost overruns. Design/methodology/approach To test this hypothesis, cost and geotechnical data gathered for 61 completed highway projects, executed in the Niger Delta, recording unusually high cost overruns, along with qualitative data from 16 interviews with the project commissioners, were comprehensively analysed via regression modelling, to statistically explain recorded cost variance. Findings The results provide empirical evidence supporting a cause–effect relationship between the extent of cost overrun and key geotechnical factors. It is suggested that positive changes made in the geotechnical practices of the highway agencies will produce an expected exponential decrease in the level of cost overruns recorded in highway projects. Research limitations/implications The study is limited to explaining the propagation of unusually high cost overruns in the geologic setting of the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. As such there is a need to test the generalisability of the theory presented. Practical implications The emergent view of geotechnical practice calls for further research, necessary to align geotechnical best practice into highway project delivery in the Niger Delta region. Originality/value The study used a robust methodological approach to understanding the propagation of cost overruns in highway projects, based on a characterisation of geotechnical intricacies, which is unprecedented in cost overrun research.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document