Focus of Taiwan-China diplomatic contest will change

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Common Ground ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Diplomatic Relations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sao Tome And Principe ◽  
Island State ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Necessity ◽  
Progressive Party

Subject Taiwan's 'diplomatic contest' with China. Significance Panama announced on June 12 that it was switching diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China, reducing the number of Taiwan’s diplomatic partners to 20. Panama is the second country to sever relations with Taipei since Tsai Ing-wen of the China-sceptic Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) became Taiwanese president in May last year. In late December, the small African island state of Sao Tome and Principe also switched recognition. Impacts Attitudes toward China in Taiwan will harden, but economic necessity will require Taipei to seek some common ground. As the next election approaches in 2020, the government will feel more pressure to be pragmatic towards China. China will be disinclined to cooperate, hoping that the China-friendly opposition will oust the current China-sceptic government.

Malawi’s Mutharika faces poll dispute storm

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Electoral System ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Court Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
Elite Level ◽  
The Government ◽  
Progressive Party

Significance Incumbent President Peter Mutharika of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) narrowly won re-election, ahead of the main opposition candidates, Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and former Vice-President Saulos Chilima of the United Transformation Movement (UTM). The elections were marred by accusations of rigging, and both Chakwera and Chilima have launched court cases to overturn the result amid sizable post-poll protests. Impacts The opposition has ruled out power-sharing, but this may re-emerge as a compromise option should legal challenges fail. Opposition and civil society groups will increase calls for an amendment to the electoral system, with likely increased public backing. International donors will maintain pressure on the government over persistent budget overruns and elite-level corruption.

Malawi’s Mutharika may struggle to be re-elected

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Cholera Outbreak ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
The Past ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Progressive Party

Subject Pressured Malawian president Significance Recurring corruption crises over the past year have seen President Peter Mutharika and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)’s popularity decline. Despite such travails, the DPP has recently attempted to consolidate its hold on parliament by co-opting members of the opposition People’s Party (PP). This comes soon after rebel PP members controversially supported DPP efforts to defeat an electoral reform bill that would have weakened Mutharika’s 2019 re-election hopes. Impacts The opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) will receive intensified overtures from the main parties ahead of the 2019 poll. Despite the recent parliamentary setbacks, a civil society push for electoral reform is unlikely to subside. Failure properly to combat a cholera outbreak in the Central and Northern regions would put further pressure on the government.

New government in Guyana will face challenges

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Social Progress ◽  
Consensus Building ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Tension ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Government ◽  
Progressive Party

Significance The government has changed hands only once since independence in 1966: in 1992 the People's Progressive Party (PPP), led by Cheddi Jagan, assumed power following 26 years of People's National Congress (PNC) government. Since the last election in 2011 the government has been hamstrung by a parliament in which a coalition of opposition parties, including the PNC, held a one-seat majority. The result has been gridlock, with no new legislation approved, and continuous disputes over the budget, government spending and agreements with foreign investors. Impacts The election could allow a new government to work toward consensus-building. This might facilitate policies to develop Guyana's potential, and narrow the socioeconomic gap with the rest of the region. If the result is close, political tension and deadlock will persist, undermining the business climate, investment and social progress.

Taiwan's new government will upset regional status quo

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Judicial Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Truth And Reconciliation ◽  
Trade Blocs ◽  
Progressive Party ◽  
Female President

Subject The outlook for Taiwan under the new administration. Significance Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was sworn in on May 20 as Taiwan's first female president and only its second leader not from the Kuomintang party, which has governed the island for all but eight years since 1945. In her inaugural address, Tsai outlined a five-point plan focused on reviving a stagnant economy, increasing social services for a rapidly aging population, and moving the export-driven economy away from a reliance on mainland China, Taiwan's largest market. Impacts Restructuring the economy will take time, and public pressure will build if global demand for exports does not rise quickly. Taiwan's bids to join regional trade blocs will meet resistance from China, which will press other countries to block it. Initiatives on judicial reform and 'truth and reconciliation' that discredit the Kuomintang will make domestic politics more acrimonious.

Party coup changes Taiwan election outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Progressive Party

Significance Eric Chu, the party chairman, was nominated to replace Hung Hsiu-chu, whose candidacy failed to rally support within the party. He will run against Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party. Impacts Cross-Strait relations will once again play the central role in the 2016 presidential and legislative elections. The Kuomintang's diplomatic stance will shift toward the DPP's in an attempt to assuage concerns over cross-Strait policy. Although Tsai has promised not to undo trade agreements with China, she is unlikely to press ahead with new ones. China will remain largely silent on the Taiwanese elections, to avoid reinforcing anti-China sentiment that is widespread in Taiwan.

Belarus tilts foreign policy towards Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Force ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Necessity ◽  
Integration Project ◽  
Political Alignment

Subject Belarus's move towards EU and away from Moscow. Significance The EU's recognition of President Alexander Lukashenka's re-election as a legitimate process has given impetus to an emerging rapprochement. The government in Minsk is presenting this shift in foreign policy in neutral terms, as a matter of economic necessity, but the Westward reorientation has broader implications for the long-standing political alignment with Russia. Impacts The diversification of Belarus's foreign policy will be seen by Russian hardliners as proof of Lukashenka's disloyalty. The fractured opposition will be further marginalised as a political force. Russia may be pressured to change the format of its Eurasian integration project to take greater account of neighbours' interests.

Taiwan-China city-level ties bypass central government

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
National Level ◽  
Decisive Role ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
National Governments ◽  
Progressive Party

Subject Relations between sub-national governments in Taiwan and China. Significance China is attempting to bypass Taiwan’s central government -- with which it has severed formal ties -- and forge better relations with major municipalities and locally elected leaders. These efforts have found greater success since recent local elections that dealt major setbacks to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Impacts Politicians from both parties will be emboldened to turn to Chinese investment to stimulate local economies. Han Kuo-yu, newly elected mayor of Kaohsiung city, could lead the main opposition party’s comeback at the national level. Relations with China are likely to play a decisive role once again in Taiwan’s 2020 national elections.

Somali political parties' fate hinges on ballot model

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Universal Suffrage ◽  
Electoral Corruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
Progressive Party ◽  
New Phase

Subject Political parties in democracy. Significance Amid a divisive standoff with the federal government, the leaders of Somalia’s federal member states on October 24 resolved to establish their own political party, the National Progressive Party, to advocate for a "federalist, progressive and consultative agenda". This development could represent a new phase in efforts to institutionalise the role of political parties in Somali politics. However, like other recent formations, it could ultimately remain more firmly grounded in existing models of political competition. Impacts Alliances among Hawiye clan-led political parties may incentivise other elites to create clan-centric formations. Universal suffrage would enhance the agency of political parties and increase the costs of electoral corruption. Conflict between the government and federal member states could derail efforts to adopt a new system in the next elections.

Opposition will target Skopje's ethnic Albanian allies

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Common Ground ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
Common Interest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The North ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Democracy

Significance In an interview to Alsat, the TV channel that has most influence among North Macedonia's Albanians, Mickoski argued that overcoming the present government was of common interest to both the North Macedonian and Albanian electoral blocs. Mickoski and VMRO are clearly buoyed by the opposition New Democracy (ND) victory in Greek parliamentary elections on July 7. They are trying to emulate ND's winning tactic by capitalising on the weaknesses of Prime Minister Zoran Zaev's government and growing dissatisfaction in North Macedonia. Impacts The government has been unable to stabilise the country, with government and opposition failing to agree on even minimal common ground. This is likely to lead to a new bout of external pressure and initiatives to break the internal political deadlock. Skopje's stalling on reform and the chill in relations with neighbours weaken its chances to get a date for EU membership negotiations.

Taiwan election race stalls cross-Strait engagement

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legislative Yuan ◽  
Progressive Party ◽  
Female President ◽  
Party Congress

Subject Electoral politics in Taiwan. Significance At the party congress of the ruling Kuomintang on June 19, Hung Hsiu-chu, deputy speaker of the Legislative Yuan, was formally recommended to represent the party in the presidential election on January 16, 2016. Hung will face Tsai Ing-wen, the chairwoman and presidential nominee of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 2012. Barring a strong showing by an independent candidate, Taiwan will elect its first female president in 2016. Impacts Cross-strait agreements will stall during the election season and are unlikely to progress quickly under a DPP administration. Taiwan-US relations will improve as a result of Washington's growing frustration with Beijing. Unlike last time, Tsai will not face the perception that Washington favours the Kuomintang. A Tsai presidency would mean less business-friendly economic policies and moves toward decommissioning Taiwan's nuclear power plants. However, the Kuomintang is likely to retain control of the legislature, which would curtail Tsai's power considerably.

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