Afghanistan-Pakistan hostility will increase

Subject Cross-border tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Significance President Donald Trump’s August 21 statement, which outlined the United States' new Afghan strategy, drew attention to long-strained ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Mutual attempts to improve regional security are often at cross purposes. Impacts Some 2 million Afghan refugees in Pakistan may face accelerated repatriation. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will be at risk from political violence and terrorist attack. India-Pakistan tensions will worsen if Kabul appeals to Delhi for political and economic support.

Significance The government is aligning itself with the emerging international strategy against ISG in Syria. Its push to participate in airstrikes in part reflects a wish to reassert the United Kingdom's role as an international security partner, especially to the United States and France. Impacts The government envisages airstrikes as being needed for at least 12-18 months. The United Kingdom will be important but secondary in the anti-ISG coalition, with the United States continuing to conduct most operations. In the interests of its anti-ISG strategy, the government will temper its insistence on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stepping down. The risk of an Islamist terrorist attack in the United Kingdom will increase. If Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn comes to be seen as correct in his anti-airstrikes stance, it will further envenom relations on the left.


Significance Following the victory of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in elections late last month, he expressed a wish to improve relations with Pakistan's neighbour and traditional enemy India, especially on the disputed Kashmir valley. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek to retain power in elections early next year, congratulated Khan on his poll win. Impacts Pakistan’s military may try to influence the Afghan parliamentary election in October. The security of Indian-administered Kashmir will deteriorate. India will lobby the United States to exert further political and economic pressure on Pakistan over cross-border militancy.


Significance Obama will seek to gain their support for a final deal on Iran's nuclear programme and reassure them that the United States remains committed to regional security. This is likely to fall short of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders' expectations that the summit will formalise and deepen US security commitments in the Gulf. Moreover, Gulf rulers remain convinced that Iran has continued to spread its influence across the region, and they will resist any US attempt to narrow the focus of the summit onto the benefits of a nuclear agreement alone. Impacts GCC distrust of Iranian objectives and US policies in the region means they will develop more assertive approaches to regional security. Any normalisation of international policy on Iran following a final nuclear agreement will test GCC cohesion. United States faces inking Iran deal without support of any of its regional allies, Israel and the Gulf. Oman, Qatar and Dubai will move swiftly to build closer economic and commercial ties with Iran.


Significance The hearing was part of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer’s investigation of China under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, initiated in August. The US delegation to the WTO submitted in September a request for China to delay implementation of its Cybersecurity Law, citing its anticipated impact on cross-border technology transfers. Both of these developments reflect increasing technology trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Impacts US allies are likely to face pressure from Washington over procurement of Chinese ICT in government facilities. The US government is likely to use power over contracts, regulation and informal pressure to shape tech companies’ behaviour. Espionage fears will drive harsher US and European scrutiny of Chinese investment in their domestic tech sectors.


Significance European-backed negotiations in Vienna to bring the United States and Iran back into compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal have changed the strategic environment for the Gulf states. They look to the US-promised ‘follow-on negotiations’ to meet their regional security concerns, but are also opening direct lines to Tehran. Impacts If direct Iran-GCC negotiations proceed, they will likely focus on practical confidence-boosting measures within the Gulf itself. Reconciliation with Qatar and a new Kuwaiti GCC Secretary General may allow the GCC to play a larger role in any follow-on talks. Emirati and Bahraini (and possibly Saudi) representatives may coordinate US messaging on Iran with Israeli counterparts.


Subject Rise of Islamist parties in Pakistan. Significance A three-week protest led by Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP) calling for the resignation of the law minister from the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) came to an end on November 27, with the Islamists apparently emerging victorious from the standoff. Earlier in the month, several religious parties agreed to revive the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) alliance which contested polls in the 2000s. Impacts Pakistan will face greater pressure from the United States to act against militants, straining bilateral relations. India will reiterate claims that Pakistan is not serious about containing cross-border terrorism. Attacks on religious minorities, and cases of blasphemy, are likely to increase.


2015 ◽  
Vol 81 (21) ◽  
pp. 7350-7359 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. H. Ogden ◽  
E. J. Feil ◽  
P. A. Leighton ◽  
L. R. Lindsay ◽  
G. Margos ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTIn North America, Lyme disease (LD) is a tick-borne zoonosis caused by the spirochete bacteriumBorrelia burgdorferisensu stricto, which is maintained by wildlife. Tick vectors and bacteria are currently spreading into Canada and causing increasing numbers of cases of LD in humans and raising a pressing need for public health responses. There is no vaccine, and LD prevention depends on knowing who is at risk and informing them how to protect themselves from infection. Recently, it was found in the United States that some strains ofB. burgdorferisensu strictocause severe disease, whereas others cause mild, self-limiting disease. While many strains occurring in the United States also occur in Canada, strains in some parts of Canada are different from those in the United States. We therefore recognize a need to identify which strains specific to Canada can cause severe disease and to characterize their geographic distribution to determine which Canadians are particularly at risk. In this review, we summarize the history of emergence of LD in North America, our current knowledge ofB. burgdorferisensu strictodiversity, its intriguing origins in the ecology and evolution of the bacterium, and its importance for the epidemiology and clinical and laboratory diagnosis of LD. We propose methods for investigating associations betweenB. burgdorferisensu strictodiversity, ecology, and pathogenicity and for developing predictive tools to guide public health interventions. We also highlight the emergence ofB. burgdorferisensu strictoin Canada as a unique opportunity for exploring the evolutionary aspects of tick-borne pathogen emergence.


Significance Trump asserted that the decision was necessary to promote regional security and stability. As with his 2017 decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the president is breaking with an international consensus on the status of the Golan Heights, which was captured from Syria in 1967. Impacts The decision will further undermine Palestinian confidence that the United States is an impartial broker. It will raise questions over the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Forces (UNDOF). A limited campaign of rocket attacks into the Golan Heights by Hezbollah or other Iran-backed groups is possible. The move will further highlight policy towards Israel as a partisan issue in US domestic politics. Some right-wing Israeli and US politicians will use the momentum to push for Israeli annexation of the West Bank.


Subject Vietnam's handling of COVID-19. Significance The ruling Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) has considerably relaxed the country's COVID-19 lockdown, within just three weeks of imposing it. Vietnam is the most populous country to have reported no deaths from the disease, although its strikingly low number of confirmed cases may reflect limited testing. Impacts Vietnam will try to present its apparent success in managing the pandemic as a vindication of its one-party system. Hanoi will likely announce more packages of economic support for businesses and vulnerable individuals. Vietnam will have less scope to export to Europe and the United States, where recovery from the pandemic looks set to be slower.


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