Russian budget plan points to shift in priorities

Significance Plans for the next three years point to a rebalancing in the structure of expenditure, with greater emphasis on spending on health, education and support for the economy. Federal government spending is projected to remain approximately at current levels while declining as a proportion of GDP as the economy grows. Impacts Gains in living standards may be unevenly distributed across regions as welfare spending declines as a share of GDP. Financial pressures on local government may ease with higher federal spending on education and health. The Central Bank has been given a free hand to deal with banking sector stress, but this may change if the sector experiences a crisis.

Significance Some hard-right members of the Republican congressional caucus argue that allowing federal spending to lapse and threatening a government shutdown could force legislators to approve steep cuts to the federal bureaucracy. As congressional factions, leaders and President Donald Trump’s administration weigh in on government spending, debates about the appropriate scope of federal agencies and programmes are likely to feature prominently. Impacts Costly entitlement programmes are unlikely to be targeted for cuts owing to their popularity. Congressional allies of USAID will block Trump’s plan to consolidate it into the State Department. Empty executive branch-appointed positions will hinder the effective functioning of the federal government. The proposed abolition of the state and local tax deduction for federal taxes will place pressure on sub-national government programmes.


2017 ◽  
Vol 117 (2) ◽  
pp. 176-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irene Torres ◽  
Venka Simovska

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the debate concerning community participation in school-based health education and health promotion, with regard to food and nutrition. Design/methodology/approach Based on empirical data generated over the course of one year of fieldwork in three rural communities and schools in Ecuador, the study examines community participation related to the implementation of the school feeding programme (SFP) in rural schools in Ecuador. The conceptual framework for the study is shaped by the concepts of student and community participation within the health promoting school (HPS) paradigm. Findings The findings help identify and portray different forms of community participation, ranging from a total absence of meaningful participation, though very limited, to consequential participation determined as community influence on the SFP practices to meet the community needs, priorities and systems of meanings. Research limitations/implications The study shows that the meaningful participation of the parents and community members in small rural schools in a low- to middle-income country such as Ecuador can be linked to an empowered stance towards the SFP so that it is better tuned to local conditions, priorities and systems of meaning. School leadership, geographical characteristics and internal community organization seem to influence how participation is valued and enacted. Challenges remain in the interpretations of community participation, including counter- and non-participation of members. Originality/value The study contributes to an understanding of policy implementation and the implications of a HPS approach to health education and health promotion in small rural schools.


2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 246-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Novignon ◽  
Justice Nonvignon ◽  
Richard Mussa

Purpose Understanding the linkages between poverty and inequality is vital to any sustainable development and poverty reduction strategies. In Ghana, while poverty has reduced significantly over the years, inequality has increased. The purpose of this paper is to examine the linkages between inequality in household expenditure components and overall inequality and poverty in Ghana. Design/methodology/approach Using microdata from the sixth round of the Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS 6) conducted in 2012/2013, marginal effects and elasticities were computed for both within- and between-component analysis. Findings The results suggest that, in general, reducing within-component inequality significantly reduces overall poverty and inequality in Ghana, compared with between-component inequality. Specifically, inequality in education and health expenditure components were the largest contributors to overall poverty and inequality. The findings imply that policies directed toward reducing within-component inequality will be more effective. Specifically, the findings of the study corroborate recent policies on education and health in Ghana aimed at inequality within these components. Sustaining and scaling up these policies will be a step in the right direction. Originality/value The study contributes to existing studies in several ways: first, this study becomes the first attempt to examine inequality-poverty nexus using household expenditure components in Ghana. Second, the use of expenditure in place of income is an addition to the literature. Income is usually subject to reporting biases and is minimal in expenditure. Finally, the findings highlight the need for poverty reduction strategies to focus on specific household components including education and health. Blanket interventions may not be effective in reducing inequality and poverty.


Subject Modest outlook for consumption in Russia Significance Data from the official statistics agency Rosstat suggest that the recession that began in late 2014 is coming to an end, but no one is predicting a spurt in growth. Consumers have been harder hit than during the 2008-09 recession, and falling real incomes have depressed retail sales. While the economy is improving overall, the picture varies widely by geography. Impacts Government spending plans indicate that welfare will be shielded from cuts affecting other areas. Social spending is important to stability ahead of the 2018 presidential election. A relaxation of Western sanctions may boost living standards if it leads to increased capital inflows. However, finance ministry plans to buy foreign currency to preserve exchange rate competitiveness may limit these gains.


Subject Iran’s banking sector in urgent need of reform. Significance Tehran's banks face major corruption scandals, and a complex policy environment. In July 2016, the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) announced major plans to reform the country’s banking system in line with global standards. Iranian banks have been cut off from the international financial system since 2012, owing to sanctions. After the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran expected that the lifting of sanctions would reverse this situation. However, despite interest among Central Asian and Turkish banks, progress has been limited. Impacts European banks will be slow to engage with Iran, fearing unpredictable US penalties. Differing US and Iranian interpretations of sanctions lifting under the nuclear deal may come up before the dispute resolution mechanism. Macroeconomic strains will put depreciatory pressure on the currency. If President Hassan Rouhani fails to win re-election in May, the chances of banking reform would be much lower.


Subject Oil and COVID-19 shocks in Azerbaijan. Significance The COVID-19 pandemic and oil price collapse present a dual challenge to the government, whose economic or political responses are likely to mirror its behaviour in past crises. Despite reasonable fiscal strength, there are policy risks in areas such as defending the national currency at the cost of depleting foreign currency reserves. Impacts Demands for healthcare and welfare spending will rise, as will unemployment. The banking sector looks vulnerable: four major banks are already in temporary administration. The size of the shadow economy makes it difficult to assess numbers of lay-offs and the resulting demand for welfare assistance.


Significance The IMF also approved an increase in social welfare spending to 0.3% of GDP from 0.2% in light of the impact of the economic slump and high inflation, implying a total of 60 billion pesos (1.5 billion dollars) this year. However, the Fund warned that meeting the zero primary deficit target for 2019 would “require further restraint in government spending”. Impacts Spending cuts could be achieved through greater efficiency, but this would imply unpopular public-sector job losses. The presidential election will go to a second round and is likely to be lost rather than won. Policy uncertainty will undermine investment this year.


Subject Myanmar banking reform outlook. Significance Myanmar's central bank will issue additional banking licences to an undisclosed number of foreign banks in 2016, it announced on December 14. This is part of the wider effort to modernise and build the capacity of Myanmar's banking sector. Impacts Greater banking sector modernisation and liberalisation would aid domestic business sector growth. International donor support will be needed to help Myanmar's banking sector development. Banking sector reform requires the support of Myanmar's central bank personnel, and consumer and foreign investor confidence.


Subject Short- and longer-term prospects for recovery in Russia. Significance In April, Russia's economic development minister, Alexey Ulyukaev, predicted that Russia's recession was about to end. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR), previously more sceptical, came to the same view in late May. Policymakers are focusing their attention on the longer-term issue of whether Russia can achieve more than very sluggish growth over the next few years. Impacts The prolonged dip in living standards will persist, although protests will not be serious enough to destabilise the government. The economic development ministry has a plan to increase funds available for investment, in part by prolonging caps on wages and pensions. Such a move would increase the risk of unrest and dampen consumer demand.


Subject Banking sector prospects. Significance Private sector banks in Ecuador enjoyed strong double-digit loan growth last year -- a reflection of the troubled economy’s gradual emergence from recession. That economic recovery, and the pragmatic willingness of President Lenin Moreno to work with the private sector, is generating optimism regarding the prospects of the country’s banking sector. Impacts Strong bank lending is key for economic recovery, allowing firms to increase investments and consumers to spend more. Taking the E-money system from the central bank shows Moreno’s pragmatism vis-a-vis the private sector. The planned sale of state-owned lender Banco del Pacifico could attract the interest of foreign banks.


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