Trump appointees will undercut US federal programmes

Significance Some hard-right members of the Republican congressional caucus argue that allowing federal spending to lapse and threatening a government shutdown could force legislators to approve steep cuts to the federal bureaucracy. As congressional factions, leaders and President Donald Trump’s administration weigh in on government spending, debates about the appropriate scope of federal agencies and programmes are likely to feature prominently. Impacts Costly entitlement programmes are unlikely to be targeted for cuts owing to their popularity. Congressional allies of USAID will block Trump’s plan to consolidate it into the State Department. Empty executive branch-appointed positions will hinder the effective functioning of the federal government. The proposed abolition of the state and local tax deduction for federal taxes will place pressure on sub-national government programmes.

Significance Plans for the next three years point to a rebalancing in the structure of expenditure, with greater emphasis on spending on health, education and support for the economy. Federal government spending is projected to remain approximately at current levels while declining as a proportion of GDP as the economy grows. Impacts Gains in living standards may be unevenly distributed across regions as welfare spending declines as a share of GDP. Financial pressures on local government may ease with higher federal spending on education and health. The Central Bank has been given a free hand to deal with banking sector stress, but this may change if the sector experiences a crisis.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumide Olusegun Olaoye ◽  
Ukafor Ukafor Okorie ◽  
Oluwatosin Odunayo Eluwole ◽  
Mahmood Butt Fawwad

PurposeThis study examines the asymmetric effect of government spending on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1980–2017. Specifically, this study investigates whether the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. In addition, the authors examine whether the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the linear fiscal reaction function in addition to the nonlinear regression model of Hatemi-J (2011, 2012), Granger and Yoon (2002), which allows us to separate negative shocks from positive shocks to government spending. Similarly, the authors adopt the generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques of Hansen (1982) to account for simultaneity and endogeneity problems inherent in dynamic model.FindingsThe authors’ findings reveal that there is evidence of asymmetry in the government spending–economic growth nexus in Nigeria over the period of study. Specifically, the authors find that the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. More specifically, the study established that the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Originality/valueUnlike the traditional method of modeling asymmetry, which adopts the simple inclusion of a squared government spending term or by the inclusion of a cubic government spending term, the model adopted in this study allows us to model shocks and show how the responses of economic growth to government expenditure differ according to the nature of shocks on them.


Significance The discovery of a new variant of the virus (P1) in Manaus has prompted renewed concerns as the city is suffering a severe second wave, months after a first wave that reportedly affected most of its population. The spread is set to continue, not least because of the difficulty of maintaining restrictions on movement. Impacts Problems with vaccine roll-outs are likely to lead to renewed outbreaks across Brazil. Fragmentation of policies at the state and local level will hamper an effective response. Obstacles to research programmes will hinder efforts to map the evolution of the virus.


Author(s):  
R. Kelso

Australia is a nation of 20 million citizens occupying approximately the same land mass as the continental U.S. More than 80% of the population lives in the state capitals where the majority of state and federal government offices and employees are based. The heavily populated areas on the Eastern seaboard, including all of the six state capitals have advanced ICT capability and infrastructure and Australians readily adopt new technologies. However, there is recognition of a digital divide which corresponds with the “great dividing” mountain range separating the sparsely populated arid interior from the populated coastal regions (Trebeck, 2000). A common theme in political commentary is that Australians are “over-governed” with three levels of government, federal, state, and local. Many of the citizens living in isolated regions would say “over-governed” and “underserviced.” Most of the state and local governments, “… have experienced difficulties in managing the relative dis-economies of scale associated with their small and often scattered populations.” Rural and isolated regions are the first to suffer cutbacks in government services in periods of economic stringency. (O’Faircheallaigh, Wanna, & Weller, 1999, p. 98). Australia has, in addition to the Commonwealth government in Canberra, two territory governments, six state governments, and about 700 local governments. All three levels of government, federal, state, and local, have employed ICTs to address the “tyranny of distance” (Blainey, 1967), a term modified and used for nearly 40 years to describe the isolation and disadvantage experienced by residents in remote and regional Australia. While the three levels of Australian governments have been working co-operatively since federation in 1901 with the federal government progressively increasing its power over that time, their agencies and departments generally maintain high levels of separation; the Queensland Government Agent Program is the exception.


Author(s):  
Laura Thaut Vinson

This chapter explores the problem of rising pastoralist–farmer and ethnic (religious and tribal) violence in the pluralistic Middle Belt region of Nigeria over the past thirty to forty years. In particular, it highlights the underlying issues and conflicts associated with these different categories of communal intergroup violence, the human and material costs of such conflict, and the broader implications for the Nigerian state. The federal government, states, local governments. and communities have not been passive in addressing the considerable challenges associated with preventing and resolving such conflicts. It is clear, however, that they face significant hurdles in resolving the underlying grievances and drivers of conflict, and their efforts have not always furthered the cause of conflict resolution and peacebuilding. Greater attention to patterns of inclusion and exclusion and to the allocation of rights and resources will be necessary, particularly at the state and local government levels, to create a more stable and peaceful Middle Belt.


2018 ◽  
Vol 678 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-123
Author(s):  
Kathy Stack

During the Obama administration, the White House Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) leadership helped to initiate and cement evidence-based policymaking reforms across the federal government, particularly in social services programs. Notable accomplishments were in the design of outcome-focused programs that use and build evidence, the strengthening of agency evaluation capacity, and interagency data-linkage projects to harness administrative data. Here, I review those accomplishments and catalog the key assets and tactics that OMB used to help federal agencies increase their use of evidence and innovation. I also assess the shortcomings and limitations of the Obama-era OMB approach and draw conclusions about what could be done in the current or a future administration to further advance evidence-based policymaking in the executive branch. Specifically, I propose that Congress and the administration should work to improve agency evaluation capacity, assess and report on agencies’ progress in using and building evidence, and establish an Intergovernmental Evidence and Innovation Council.


Subject US interagency procedures for sharing signals intelligence. Significance The administration of President Barack Obama is in the final stages of issuing new rules governing the sharing of signals intelligence (SIGINT) among federal agencies involved in national security. These rules, which the intelligence community has long expected, would clarify how the federal government may share communications-based intelligence, such as wiretaps and intercepts, among diverse agencies, and -- critically -- set boundaries on the use of such intelligence by agencies that did not originally collect it. Impacts The next administration -- whether Republican or Democratic -- will probably be less responsive to privacy groups in this area. The Obama administration's focus on executive orders governing emerging technologies has set precedent but offers few lasting restrictions. Privacy issues will hinder US international trade negotiations, further derailing TTIP talks for the foreseeable future.


Significance The move follows the Senate's failure again yesterday to agree on spending priorities and immigration, the same policy disagreements which prevented a spending deal being passed by midnight on January 19. This has thrown the federal government into its first shutdown since 2013. Impacts Trump's support for "comprehensive immigration reform" may not hold. If US economic growth continues, this may push up illegal immigration, absent security enhancements. Challenges from the state governments over immigration reforms are possible. If Republicans are seen as anti-immigrant, gaining non-traditional constituencies' votes, including minorities, will be hard.


Significance The main opposition party, the United Party for National Development (UPND), immediately rejected the official victory declaration, counting irregularities. No evidence was offered to support this allegation, but counting delays, the result's closeness and claims that a parallel vote count has Lungu losing could undermine the government's legitimacy. Impacts The expectation that the 2017 general election is likely to be close will encourage the PF to raise government spending. Slumping copper prices cutting government revenues could necessitate further borrowing -- contravening IMF recommendations. Public sector unions are likely to use the post-election period to demand an end to the state wage freeze in place for 2014-15.


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