Prospects for US foreign policy in 2018

Subject Prospects for US foreign policy in 2018. Significance As Donald Trump’s presidency enters its second year, the administration’s foreign policy dynamics are settling into regular patterns. A set of senior US national security officials seek to promote conventional US foreign policy aims, but the president’s ‘America First’ vision, rhetorical interventions and political focus on rolling back his predecessor’s accomplishments will constrain their ability to reassure allies and signal to adversaries what Washington’s intentions are. However, the White House prioritising hard power and transactional diplomacy over soft power and working with allies will change how Washington operates on the international stage.

Significance In the race to nominate a Democratic presidential candidate, one of the major dividing lines has been whether to return to the party’s 2016 agenda or advocate systemic overhaul. While the race so far has not dwelt much on foreign policy, a similar debate is being held among thought leaders. One of the main questions is what the fundamental infrastructure of US foreign policy should be if the Democrats win the White House next November -- updated liberal internationalist or ‘neo-progressive’ -- and how, therefore, to respond to precedents set by Trump. Impacts A Democratic administration would prioritise rehabilitating existing international institutions before creating new ones. This would likely mean re-establishing (if possible) the Iran nuclear talks. New institutions would be most likely for newer areas, two of these being climate change and global corruption. Economic sanctions would continue as a foreign policy tool but may be weakened.


Subject Prospects for US foreign policy in 2016. Significance President Barack Obama will leave office in January 2017, following the election of his successor on November 8, 2016. With most of his domestic agenda stalled in the face of a hostile Republican Congress, Obama is likely to turn to the international stage in 2016 to cement his political legacy. Meanwhile, the White House will also have to manage an array of international crises during an election year.


Subject Germany's soft power. Significance Chancellor Angela Merkel's Germany is the undisputed leader in Europe today, relying largely on a set of soft-power tools. Germany's, and Europe's, problem is that there is an increasing mismatch on two fronts: first, between the interests of Germany and its key partners; and second, between overall German goals and available means, especially as far as soft-power resources are concerned. Impacts Germany's hard power is slowly recovering in the wake of resurgent military threats in NATO's main theatre of operation. The recent wave of terrorist attacks in southern Germany adds pressure to refocus attention on domestic concerns. Parties have started positioning themselves for next year's federal election, affecting domestic and foreign policy agendas.


Significance The White House has indicated that President Donald Trump will sign the legislation authorising the new measures, despite the fact it limits presidential discretion to waive the sanctions as an instrument of US foreign policy. Congress overwhelmingly voted in favour of the bill, which expands sanctions on Iran, North Korea and Russia. Impacts Mulled US plans to provide arms to Ukraine would spur a more hostile line from Moscow towards Trump if carried out. There are few voices in Washington advocating an activist approach to European firms’ minor dealings with Russia. The bill’s focus on past grievances, rather than clear changes in behaviour sought, will hinder its effectiveness as a policy tool.


Significance The news comes at a difficult time for President Donald Trump: he needs foreign policy wins to contribute to his chances of re-election in November 2020, and he has invested political capital in improving ties with North Korea. Moreover, foreign policy related controversies have seen Trump put under formal impeachment investigation. Impacts Trump will likely take a less hawkish tone towards Iran and North Korea with the departure of John Bolton as national security adviser. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s foreign policy influence will grow, provided he maintains the president’s favour. The administration will renew its push to emphasise religious freedom as a foreign policy objective. If the impeachment investigations turn up damaging evidence, Trump will have to divert more time to fighting allegations.


Subject UK 'Brexit' referendum's impact on US foreign policy. Significance President Barack Obama lobbied hard for the United Kingdom to remain in the EU, citing the need for a strong and trusted US partner within the organisation. The referendum results in favour of leaving ('Brexit') are clearly a setback that could curtail long-standing US economic, political and security interests in Europe. Impacts The United Kingdom may seek to use the upcoming NATO summit to regain some international stature following the Brexit vote. Brexit will complicate UK-US as well as EU-UK data transfer arrangements. Some Republicans' pro-Brexit positions are more likely to reflect political manoeuvring against the White House than a firm policy position.


Subject Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2016. Significance The June 12 mass shooting in Orlando will sharpen US partisan divisions ahead of November's elections, making it more challenging for President Barack Obama to focus on international developments in his final months in office. Before his successor is inaugurated in January 2017, Obama will seek to build political support in Washington for his distinctive view of the United States' global role, convey steady stewardship of US national security ahead of the election, preserve the foreign policy achievements of his presidency and manage any regional challenges.


2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (73) ◽  
pp. 25-56
Author(s):  
Miloš Hrnjaz ◽  
Milan Krstić

Abstract This paper analyses the highly contested concept of American exceptionalism, as described in the speeches of Barak Obama. The authors of the paper use discourse analysis to show that Obama is using the idea of American exceptionalism on two levels: US foreign policy and the US stance towards international law. Our conclusion is that Obama uses an implicit dual discourse in both these fields. Obama favours active US foreign policy, based on soft power instruments and multilateralism. He insists that American exceptionalism does not mean that the US can exempt itself from the norms of international law, however, he does not think the US should always have a very active foreign policy. He makes room for unilateral acting and the use of hard power instruments in foreign policy. He allows for the use of force even if is not in accordance with the norms of international law, when US national interests are threatened.


Author(s):  
Aleksey Vladimirovich Borisov

The article contains the critical analysis of the understanding of “soft power” in Russia as a state’s foreign policy instrument. The author notes that the strategic planning guidelines defining the fundamental principles, priorities, goals and tasks in the field of foreign policy and national security contain numerous references to the importance of “soft power” and emphasize the necessity of increasing Russia’s role in the global humanitarian space. However, the instrumental understanding contradicts the initial understanding of “soft power” as a way to legitimize a state’s foreign policy efforts and leads to refocusing from the evaluation of the effect of using humanitarian technologies to the evaluation of the humanitarian activity itself. In the author’s opinion, such approach hampers the appropriate usage of Russia’s resources of “soft power” for the purposes of its foreign policy, and sidetracks from the understanding that the efforts aimed at the cultivation of soft power are directed towards a state’s internal policy, whereas being only projected outwardly.   


2018 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 11-21
Author(s):  
Matthew Dotzler

The conflict between Turkey and the Kurds is once again reaching a boiling point. Following the defeat of ISIL in northern Iraq and Syria, Turkey is now concerned that the returning Kurdish militias pose a threat to its national security. The United States, as an ally to both parties, finds itself in a unique position to push for diplomatic solutions and to mediate the conflict before it grows out of control once again. This paper will examine the history of the Turkish-Kurdish conflict, the actors involved, and how US foreign policy can be used to try and deter yet another war in the region.


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