Eastern Ukraine faces more months of no war or peace

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Military ◽  
Two Sides

Significance Despite frequent exchanges of fire, the conflict lines in eastern Ukraine remain static as the two sides hold entrenched military positions and are approximately evenly matched. The US delivery of Javelin anti-tank missiles will boost Ukrainian morale and irritate Moscow but does not substantively alter the military dynamics. Impacts With presidential and parliamentary elections due next year, Kyiv will opt for continuity over change in its eastern Ukraine policy. Painful concessions on political arrangements for the east could tip Kyiv into a damaging domestic political crisis. Kyiv’s relations with its Western backers will be shaped more by its willingness to reform than by conflict-related developments.

June summits signal progress on EU-US trade ties

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Taxation ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Security Technology ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transatlantic Cooperation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Nord Stream ◽  
High Level ◽  
Two Sides

Significance The two sides have suspended tariffs arising from their dispute over subsidies to Airbus and Boeing, are working on an international deal on corporate taxation and have established a high-level council to discuss issues at the nexus of security, technology and trade. Impacts A major aim of closer transatlantic cooperation is better coordination of policies with respect to China. Closer transatlantic cooperation over China might soften US opposition to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. It will be difficult for the US government to pass legislation concerning trade given the Democrats' precarious majority in both houses.

scholarly journals Turkey’s political crisis of the 1970s and the military coup on September 12, 1980

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 234-238
Author(s):  
Malika S. Tovsultanova ◽  
Rustam A. Tovsultanov ◽  
Lilia N. Galimova
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Coalition Governments ◽  
Political Events ◽  
The Us ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Military ◽  
The City

In the 1970s, Turkey was in a state of political turbulence. Weak coalition governments changed frequently and could not bring order to the country. The city streets turned into an arena of battles for various armed radical groups of nationalist, communist, Islamist and separatist persuasions. For 9 years from 1971 to 1980, 10 governments changed in Turkey. The political crisis was accompanied by an economic downturn, expressed in hyperinflation and an increase in external debt. Chaos and anarchy caused discontent among Turkish financial circles and generals with the situation in the country and led to the idea of a military coup, already the third in the republican history of Turkey. The US State Department was extremely concerned about the situation in Turkey, hoping to find a reliable cover against further exports of communism and Islamism to the Middle East, approving the possibility of a coup. The coup was led by the chief of the General Staff K. Evren. Political events of the second half of the 1970s allow us to conclude that, despite the interest of the financial and military circles of the United States in it, the military coup on September 12, 1980 had mainly domestic political reasons.

Ottawa extends terrorist entity list to neo-fascists

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Business Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
White Supremacists ◽  
The Military ◽  
Radical Element

Significance Some MPs called for this action in the wake of the storming of the US Capitol last month, but the move has been considered for some time following concerns about extremism within the military. Impacts The growth of extremism is linked to a growing divide between conservative white rural areas and cosmopolitan cities. Separatist sentiment in the western provinces may develop a newly radical element from links to extremism. The business sector may face some disruption from an increase in protests and demonstrations. Canada’s reputation for welcoming immigrants could be damaged if there are high-profile incidents involving white supremacists.

Central Europe external risks still outweigh internal

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Checks And Balances ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asset Purchases ◽  
Law And Justice

Significance Investors are brushing off mounting political risks in Poland despite an erosion of democratic checks and balances under the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) government. In Romania, despite the rapidly escalating political crisis, the leu has strengthened slightly against the euro since the start of this year, since when the yield on benchmark ten-year Romanian local bonds has risen by 25 bps to 3.6%. This is still significantly below the 5% level before the ‘taper tantrum’ in mid-2013, which stemmed from the unexpected decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to end its asset purchases. Impacts After post-US election outflows, EM mutual funds are once again enjoying sizeable inflows, with EM debt funds reaching a four-month high. Some of the strain on EM currencies will be relieved by the 2.5% fall in the dollar index against a basket of its peers since end-December. Smaller export-led CEE economies will benefit from factory orders in Germany rising in December at their fastest pace in 30 months.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

Congo army reform will inflame institutional rivalry

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Coalition Government ◽  
Political Climate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Capacity To Act ◽  
Eastern Congo ◽  
The Military ◽  
Two Sides

Significance The changes have stoked rising tensions within the fragile coalition government between Tshisekedi’s Camp for Change (CACH) platform and Kabila’s Common Front for Congo (FCC) coalition. Impacts The military situation in eastern Congo remains precarious and might be negatively influenced by the recent changes. Key generals removed from power, most notably John Numbi, have considerable capacity to act as spoilers. The polarised political climate between the two sides of the FCC-CACH coalition will spark tensions and periodic violence in major cities.

Abe's US visit tightens alliance ties

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Military Alliance ◽  
The Us ◽  
Japanese Prime Minister ◽  
The Military

Significance This is the first state visit extended to a Japanese prime minister since Junichiro Koizumi's in 2006 under the George W Bush administration. Abe was awarded the honour on April 29 of being the first Japanese prime minister to address together both houses of the US Congress. Impacts Abe has strengthened the military alliance, but fulfilling his promises to Washington will cost him political capital at home. History issues are increasingly able to cause Abe problems in the United States as well as East Asia. The economic alliance is shakier than the military one; the US Congress may still delay the TPP. Tokyo and Washington look isolated as the TPP stalls and regional governments sign up to China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Budgets may curtail US nuclear forces

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Retirement Savings ◽  
Nuclear Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Arsenal ◽  
Personnel Costs ◽  
Savings Accounts ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Military

Subject Upgrading the US nuclear arsenal. Significance The United States is undertaking the most comprehensive modernisation of its nuclear forces since the 1970s and 1980s. Over the next ten years, annual US spending on nuclear weapons is projected to increase from about 15 billion dollars to 25 billion dollars per year to upgrade the three legs of the US nuclear arsenal: land-based missiles, submarine-based missiles and strategic bombers. This recapitalisation is considered necessary to sustain deterrence against growing strategic threats from Russia and China and regional nuclear threats from North Korea, but will entail trade-offs among other military assets far more likely to be used in any conflict. Impacts Russian rhetoric towards Ukraine and eastern Europe will strengthen the hands of pro-nuclear lobbies in Washington. Greater nuclear spending will increase the drive to find savings in military personnel costs. By shifting pensions to retirement savings accounts, it will increase the attractiveness of the military as a mid-career employment option.

Abortive Venezuela uprising weakens Maduro and Guaido

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Contact Group ◽  
International Contact ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Military

Significance The military high command continues to back Maduro, contradicting Guaido’s claim that senior officials agreed to support his interim presidency. The failed uprising reveals major intelligence, strategic and communications failures within Guaido’s circle and the US government's ‘Venezuela transition’ team. Impacts Purges in the armed forces and security sector can be expected. Both the Lima Group and International Contact Group will convene emergency meetings to consider options for a peaceful solution. The leadership of both Guaido and Maduro will come under pressure from within their own blocks.

Back to the Barracks? Five Years ‘Revo’ in Suriname

1986 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Brana-Shute
Keyword(s):  
Civil Rights ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Cultural Exchange ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Coup D'etat ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Military

On 25 November 1985 the Republic of Suriname celebrated ten years of independent statehood. That decade witnessed a number of unexpected and quite extraordinary events in the former Dutch colony. Since the last free parliamentary elections in 1977, the country has endured: a military coup d'etat (1980) the arbitrary arrest and detainment of leaders of the “old” political parties (1980); the nullification of its constitution and civil rights (1980) and the imposition of a “state of emergency” (1982); the appointment by the military high command of five civilian cabinets (1981,1982,1983,1984, and 1985); a foreign and domestic policy that has swung erratically between far left and center; a cordial relationship with Cuba unceremoniously broken by Suriname following the US-led invasion of Grenada; the tragic and colossally stupid murder of 15 (possibly more) prominent Surinamers opposed to the revolution (1982); the suspension of more than US$1.5 billion dollars of Dutch foreign aid (1982); seven alleged counter-coups, one of which supposedly enjoyed the support of the CIA and several American mercenaries (1980-1984); deteriorating relations with the Netherlands, to the point where there is no ambassador in the Hague; a rather visionary attempt to dismantle the ethnic structure of pre-revo party politics by creating “one national party;” a cozy relationship with Libya under the guise of “cultural exchange;” and the rapid deterioration of a once booming economy. Now in 1986, in the midst of a dialogue with the “old” political parties, there is robust talk of a return to civilian government.

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