Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-49
Author(s):  
Ivan S. Grigoriev

Abstract Of the 206 amendments introduced to the Russian constitution and adopted on July 1, 2020, 24 deal directly with the Constitutional Court, its organization, functioning, and the role it plays in the political system. Compared to many other, these are also rather precise and detailed, ranging from the number of judges on the bench, their nomination and dismissal, to the Court’s inner procedures, new locus standi limitations, and the primacy of the Constitution over Russia’s international obligations. Most changes only reproduce amendments brought to the secondary legislation over the last twenty years, and are therefore meant to preserve the status quo rather than change anything significantly. At the same time, a number of amendments aim at politicizing and instrumentalizing the Court for the president’s benefit, marking a significant departure from the previous institutional development.


1979 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 331-349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian L. D. Forbes

In recent times the historiography of the Wilhelmine Reich has clearly reflected the influence of Eckart Kehr and of later historians who have adopted and developed his work. The Rankean dogma of the Primat der Aussenpolitik (primacy of foreign policy) has been replaced by a new slogan, Primat der Innenpolitik (primacy of domestic policy). The resultant interpretive scheme is by now quite familiar. The social structure of the Bismarckean Reich, it is said, was shaken to its foundations by the impact of industrialization. A growing class of industrialists sought to break the power of the feudal agrarian class, and a rapidly developing proletariat threatened to upset the status quo. The internecine struggle between industrialists and agrarians was dangerous for both and for the state, since the final beneficiary might be the proletariat. Consequently agrarians and industrialists closed their ranks against the common social democrat enemy and sought to tame the proletariat, which had grown restive under the impact of the depression, by means of a Weltpolitik which would obviate the effects of the depression, heal the economy, and vindicate the political system responsible for such impressive achievements. Hans-Ulrich Wehler and others call this diversionary strategy against the proletarian threat social imperialism; and this, it is said, is the domestic policy primarily responsible for Wilhelmine imperialism.


Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.


Significance The military leadership has seized control of the political process, but has shown little interest in assuming formal power, often demonstrating sympathies with protesters while preserving the constitutional order. Impacts The prime minister and interim president may be pushed to quit as a concession. Elections planned for July 4 may be postponed if unrest grows. The economy may suffer as tourism will decline and foreign investors will hesitate to become involved in an uncertain energy sector.


Significance Decades of one-party rule by the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) ended at the August 30 elections, which delivered a stinging rebuke to veteran strongman Milo Djukanovic. For 30 years he has dominated the political landscape, alternating between the roles of prime minister and president, occasionally exercising power from behind the scenes. Impacts Brussels in particular will seek reassurance that the new government will adhere to Djukanovic’s generally pro-Western line. The election shows that, contrary to external assessments, democracy is alive in Montenegro and even a long-standing autocrat can be ousted. Despite its leaders’ protestations, the coalition’s composition suggests a closer relationship with Serbia and Russia. The change from the familiar Djukanovic regime with its favoured client links can be expected to weaken FDI, already reduced by COVID-19. Attacks on Bosniaks in Montenegro may lead to demonstrations by co-religionists in Bosnia, destabilising an inherently unstable country.


Subject New coalition government. Significance Three months on from early elections, Kosovo has a new coalition government comprising the incumbent Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), the Initiative for Kosovo (Nisma), the New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) and Srpska List, headed by Prime Minister and AAK leader Ramush Haradinaj. Its prospects for survival are not good. Impacts Excluding Vetevendosje from government may bring further unrest, motivated by persistent poverty and anger with the political establishment. Serbia has charged Haradinaj with war crimes; his appointment will therefore complicate relations between Prishtina and Belgrade. Kosovo’s dynamics will have read-across in Macedonia, where the second-largest party has also gained power with ethnic minority support.


Significance In the political battle between Prime Minister Edi Rama and President Ilir Meta, parliament -- which is dominated by Rama’s Socialist Party (PS) -- wants to impeach the president following his attempt to cancel the June 30 local elections. Meta’s move was prompted by the decision of the main opposition parties, including the centre-right Democratic Party (PD), to boycott the poll. Impacts Failure to resolve the political crisis will delay the opening of Albania’s accession talks with the EU. The political uncertainty will dampen economic growth, which slowed markedly in the first quarter of 2019. A deteriorating business environment will weaken foreign direct investment inflows. If economic performance remains subdued, it could result in more Albanian migrants seeking work abroad.


Subject A profile of Pedro Castillo. Significance Pedro Castillo has emerged as the unexpected winner of Peru’s 2021 presidential election. A schoolteacher far removed from the political establishment, his victory had led to concerns about what his presidency would look like and, indeed, whether it would last a full term. His challenge to the status quo has the political class deeply rattled. Impacts A Castillo government can be expected to increase company taxation, especially in the all-important mining sector. Most businessmen will prefer to wait and see what his government will bring before seeking to subvert it. If he moves far to the centre, Castillo will open up space for criticism on the left, not least from his own party.


Author(s):  
Sheldon S. Wolin

Tocqueville claimed that American democracy had eliminated the causes of revolution. He believed that the revolutionary impulse would wither because for the first time in Western history the masses of ordinary human beings had a tangible stake in defending the status quo. This chapter, however, asks, is it right for the democratic citizen to undertake revolutionary action when the political system retains some of the formal features of democracy but is clearly embarked on a course that is progressively antidemocratic without being crudely repressive? What are the precise ways in which a system that is formally democratic conceals its antidemocratic tendencies? Are pseudo-democratic substitutes introduced that create the illusion of democracy? Was the idea of a democratic citizen partially skewed at the outset so that its development in America was truncated? And, finally, does it make sense even to discuss the possibility of revolution under the circumstances of an advanced, complex society? In what terms would it make sense to talk of revolution today—what would revolutionary action by democratic citizens be?


Author(s):  
Pier-Luc Turcotte ◽  
Dave Holmes

Abstract Introduction Despite struggling to establish itself as an autonomous profession, occupational therapy remains extensively regulated and controlled by discursive authorities inside and outside the discipline. After overcoming the profession’s reformist ideals, the military governance that supported its rapid expansion morphed into civil institutions but both were based on similar grounds: occupational therapists should obey a strict set of rules while disobedience and dissent are consistently repressed or silenced. Objective The objective of this article is to deconstruct dominant (consensual) discourses that shape the status quo in occupational therapy and envision alternative paths for the development of the discipline. Method Drawing on the work of Erich Fromm and Jacques Rancière, we propose a (critical) theoretical analysis of the concepts of disobedience and dissensus as they apply to occupational therapists. Results The concepts of disobedience (Fromm) and dissensus (Rancière) can be used to revisit the consensus shaped by discursive authorities inside and outside occupational therapy and expose the political nature of such processes. We argue that remaining oppressive forces similar to those of a warfare regime persist in regulating occupational therapy practice and knowledge by enacting a form of ‘disciplinary propaganda.’ Rather than threatening the development of the discipline, disobedience and dissensus constitute critical responses to disrupt dominant discourses and give rise to healthier concepts. Conclusion The use of politically charged terms such as disobedience or dissensus can be seen as controversial and unsettling for a profession like occupational therapy but we believe they are necessary for the future of our discipline.


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