Ottawa extends terrorist entity list to neo-fascists

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Business Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
White Supremacists ◽  
The Military ◽  
Radical Element

Significance Some MPs called for this action in the wake of the storming of the US Capitol last month, but the move has been considered for some time following concerns about extremism within the military. Impacts The growth of extremism is linked to a growing divide between conservative white rural areas and cosmopolitan cities. Separatist sentiment in the western provinces may develop a newly radical element from links to extremism. The business sector may face some disruption from an increase in protests and demonstrations. Canada’s reputation for welcoming immigrants could be damaged if there are high-profile incidents involving white supremacists.

Obama's push on nuclear arms control faces hurdles

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Arms Control ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nuclear Material ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nuclear Security ◽  
Nuclear Opacity ◽  
Nuclear Arms Control

Subject The US arms control agenda. Significance Despite having less than a year in office, President Barack Obama's administration is sustaining a high-profile arms control agenda in 2016. The administration wants to restore several damaged treaties with Russia, broaden Russia-China-US cooperation on various non-proliferation issues and leave Obama's successor a firm nuclear security architecture. Arms control is a consultative, long-term diplomatic process, and is susceptible to the political imperatives of more immediate regional crises. Impacts Tacit US support of Israeli nuclear opacity will undermine arms control efforts in the Middle East. Post-Obama arms control efforts are likely to focus on the security of nuclear material, rather than strategic arms reductions. Senate retirements will undermine US arms control advocacy in Congress. The United States will retain its nuclear arsenal indefinitely despite criticism from its allies.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Trump highlights pitfalls of election prediction

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Models ◽  
Analytical Quality ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
Election Prediction ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Winner Take All ◽  
Take All

Subject Elections analysis versus prediction. Significance The nomination of Donald Trump as the Republican Party's candidate for the US presidency raises questions for how analysts ought to respond to unlikely scenarios and how 'analysis' differs in its construction from prediction. His victory raises the question whether the low probability assigned by many observers to his chance of winning was accurate, and he nevertheless won due to the inherent volatility of primary politics, or if it was the result of fundamentally flawed modelling from the outset. Impacts Past elections suggest Republicans will face hurdles in the Midwest and Northeast against Clinton, but Trump argues he has unique appeal. Gauging analytical quality on the basis of a single high-profile event may encourage misleading deference to previously correct analysts. Including uncertainty levels is a key, but often neglected, part of creating sound predictive models. Threshold events, such as a 'winner-take-all' primary or 'first-past-the-post' election, can see minor shifts lead to outsized outcomes.

Nigerian insecurity could worsen after polls

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
North Central ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
The Military

Significance Attacks by Boko Haram’s two factions pose the greatest immediate danger, but insecurity from banditry in Zamfara and Sokoto states and inter-communal conflicts across much of the north-central ‘Middle Belt’ could impinge on the elections and after. Impacts An over-extended military and partisan political divisions will hamper the development of a coordinated counterinsurgency response. Journalists and human rights groups could face a growing clampdown over critical reporting on the military. Ethnic and religious-inspired Middle Belt clashes risk disrupting polling in rural areas and fuelling worsening cycles of reprisal violence.

Partners will struggle to save the Iran nuclear deal

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Dispute Settlement ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Dispute Settlement Mechanism ◽  
Nuclear Facilities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Partner

Significance Trump described the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as "defective at its core". Iran's compliance has repeatedly been verified, but the agreement has never operated as intended. Uncertainty over Washington's future commitment reduced economic benefits to Tehran and blocked Iran's reintegration into the global economy. Impacts Except for a few high-profile deals, Europe is eclipsed as an Iranian trade partner by China, which could gain from a JCPOA breakdown. A US or Israeli strike on Iran might target utility infrastructure rather than nuclear facilities, given the environmental risks. If Iran used the dispute settlement mechanism against the US violation, it could risk automatic 'snapback' of multilateral sanctions.

Eastern Ukraine faces more months of no war or peace

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Military ◽  
Two Sides

Significance Despite frequent exchanges of fire, the conflict lines in eastern Ukraine remain static as the two sides hold entrenched military positions and are approximately evenly matched. The US delivery of Javelin anti-tank missiles will boost Ukrainian morale and irritate Moscow but does not substantively alter the military dynamics. Impacts With presidential and parliamentary elections due next year, Kyiv will opt for continuity over change in its eastern Ukraine policy. Painful concessions on political arrangements for the east could tip Kyiv into a damaging domestic political crisis. Kyiv’s relations with its Western backers will be shaped more by its willingness to reform than by conflict-related developments.

Abe's US visit tightens alliance ties

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Military Alliance ◽  
The Us ◽  
Japanese Prime Minister ◽  
The Military

Significance This is the first state visit extended to a Japanese prime minister since Junichiro Koizumi's in 2006 under the George W Bush administration. Abe was awarded the honour on April 29 of being the first Japanese prime minister to address together both houses of the US Congress. Impacts Abe has strengthened the military alliance, but fulfilling his promises to Washington will cost him political capital at home. History issues are increasingly able to cause Abe problems in the United States as well as East Asia. The economic alliance is shakier than the military one; the US Congress may still delay the TPP. Tokyo and Washington look isolated as the TPP stalls and regional governments sign up to China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Budgets may curtail US nuclear forces

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Retirement Savings ◽  
Nuclear Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Arsenal ◽  
Personnel Costs ◽  
Savings Accounts ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Military

Subject Upgrading the US nuclear arsenal. Significance The United States is undertaking the most comprehensive modernisation of its nuclear forces since the 1970s and 1980s. Over the next ten years, annual US spending on nuclear weapons is projected to increase from about 15 billion dollars to 25 billion dollars per year to upgrade the three legs of the US nuclear arsenal: land-based missiles, submarine-based missiles and strategic bombers. This recapitalisation is considered necessary to sustain deterrence against growing strategic threats from Russia and China and regional nuclear threats from North Korea, but will entail trade-offs among other military assets far more likely to be used in any conflict. Impacts Russian rhetoric towards Ukraine and eastern Europe will strengthen the hands of pro-nuclear lobbies in Washington. Greater nuclear spending will increase the drive to find savings in military personnel costs. By shifting pensions to retirement savings accounts, it will increase the attractiveness of the military as a mid-career employment option.

US anti-trafficking push will align with Trump goals

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Undocumented Immigrants ◽  
State Department ◽  
Trafficking In Persons ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
Reporting Process ◽  
Forced Labour

Subject The 2017 Trafficking in Persons Report. Significance The US State Department released its 2017 Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report on June 29 in a high-profile launch that featured Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Senior White House Advisor Ivanka Trump and Ambassador Susan Coppedge, the department’s anti-trafficking office chief. The 2017 reporting process straddled two administrations: the Obama White House compiled the data, but the rankings of individual countries were ultimately decided by the administration of President Donald Trump. Impacts Congress may restrain outreach to Malaysia and Myanmar (both upgraded) over the trafficking of Myanmar’s Rohingya minority. Trump is unlikely to exercise his legal ability as president to grant protection to trafficked undocumented immigrants. Washington may raise the trafficking of North Koreans for forced labour in China if the White House sees little progress on weapons testing.

US prison population will increase under Trump

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prison Population ◽  
Attorney General ◽  
Department Of Justice ◽  
Private Prisons ◽  
Market Mechanisms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Incarcerated Population

Subject Politics of the US criminal justice system. Significance On February 23, Attorney General Jeff Sessions rescinded a memorandum issued by his predecessor aimed at phasing out Department of Justice contracts with companies for operating private prisons. Stocks of these companies rose following President Donald Trump's November 2016 election win, and his administration is pursuing policies that will increase the size of the incarcerated population. Impacts Election-driven pressures to cut costs will dissuade officeholders from funding recidivism-reducing education and job programmes. Lack of competition in the private prison sector will undercut market mechanisms for better service delivery at lower cost. Voters are likely to focus on memorable high-profile crimes when establishing policy preferences rather than overall statistical declines. Conservatives are more likely to overestimate crime trends than liberals, which will limit political dividends for pro-reform Republicans. Federal detention of gang members and deportation to their countries of origin could consolidate transnational criminal networks.

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