Prospects for Argentina to end-2018

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Spending ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Perceived Impact ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Imf

Subject Prospects for Argentina to end-2018. Significance Both political and economic prospects in the second half will be dominated by the newly announced stand-by agreement (SBA) with the IMF and its real and perceived impact. The return to the Fund is generally unpopular and may become more so if the near-term economic effects include lower growth and public spending.

Brexit increases trade uncertainties in Brazil

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Currency Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Severe Recession ◽  
The Eu

Subject Brexit's impact on Brazil's trade outlook. Significance The process of UK withdrawal from the EU (Brexit) will produce complex, uncertain and far-reaching economic effects. Brazil faces Brexit while undergoing a severe recession and profound political crisis. Trade has offered the only positive economic news in Brazil during 2016, owing largely to currency depreciation and depressed import demand. Impacts If Brexit reinforces the decline in Chinese growth, this will have a negative impact on Brazil's exports. Crucially, it is also likely to delay the conclusion of the free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur. Near-term, Brexit represents an additional source of uncertainty, with increased instability in financial and currency markets.

Angolan government will point to early reform progress

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuel Distribution ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Near Term ◽  
State Relations ◽  
The Imf

Significance The underperformance of the oil sector, coupled with a recent fuel distribution crisis, have combined to dampen growth forecasts for 2019. While President Joao Lourenco’s government has earned praise for recent fiscal consolidation efforts, economic frailties linger. Impacts The Angolan authorities will accelerate efforts to repay arrears to Portuguese companies amid improving state relations. A potential inflationary spike once value added taxation (VAT) is introduced may lessen the chance of an interest rate cut in the near term. Improving agricultural production will be a major diversification priority and agricultural spending has quadrupled in the revised budget. The IMF will maintain pressure on Luanda to reduce subsidies in sectors such as agriculture and fisheries.

Near-term IMF funds are ample, but more may be needed

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
First Responder ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
The Imf

Subject IMF funding dynamics. Significance The disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is putting emerging markets (EMs) and low-income Countries (LICs) under economic and financial stresses. The IMF has long served as the world’s first responder to crises, and some 90 countries have already turned to it, raising fears of whether it has adequate resources to play a systemic role in helping to support these countries. Impacts A second wave of COVID-19 infections and deaths would prolong the economic crisis and could sharply raise demands for IMF resources. The organisation needs a quota increase but the fastest way to raise more resources for EMs is by increasing bilateral borrowing. For low-income countries, additional IMF funding is being mobilised.

Gabon's president will overcome internal unrest

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Spending ◽  
State Agencies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Support ◽  
The Imf ◽  
At Home

Significance The ICC visit followed days after the IMF announced the approval of a 642-million-dollar, three-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF), which Bongo hopes will catalyse international support and boost his tarnished image both at home and abroad. An ongoing reconciliation initiative has garnered some opposition support, albeit without the key endorsement of Ping. Impacts Bongo will struggle to reduce public spending as he tries to appease opponents through new state agencies and commissions. The anti-corruption campaign “Operation Mamba” will be intensified to win back international support. Further opposition attempts to seize power by force will hurt Ping’s cause.

Argentina's domestic woes dictate diplomatic prudence

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Considerable Influence ◽  
Debt Restructuring ◽  
International Context ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Foreign Ministry ◽  
The Imf

Significance Fernandez is currently focusing diplomatic efforts on garnering support for a major debt restructuring proposal which is to be launched next month and requires the backing of the IMF and creditors. With debt and investment areas of key concern, the foreign ministry has recovered considerable influence over economic relations and foreign trade. Impacts Failure to show results on debt and investment could undermine efforts to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy. Debt talks are likely to advance but investment will be slow to follow. The international context will be largely unfavourable to Argentina in the near term at least.

Peru will struggle to maintain growth levels in 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Target Range ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Impact

Subject Declining growth prospects. Significance The impact of widespread flooding, coupled with the effects of the Odebrecht scandal on public works contracts, has made private analysts reduce their forecasts for GDP growth this year. Although up on 2015, last year’s growth rate, buoyed by higher mining exports, was already lower than initially anticipated. Impacts Lower growth will make it more difficult to tackle poverty and raise employment levels. Inflation this year should be within the government’s 1-3% target range. Increased public spending will be used to maintain growth levels.

Zambia debt crisis faces imminent tipping point

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Tipping Point ◽  
Debt Restructuring ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Interventions ◽  
Recent Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance President Edgar Lungu and his Patriotic Front (PF) government are increasingly struggling to mobilise resources to meet repayments amid continued high public spending. Meanwhile, the IMF recently concluded a virtual mission with Lusaka but the outcome remains pending. Impacts Recent government interventions in the energy sector will cause additional investor unease. An IMF programme will likely be predicated on commitments to debt restructuring with creditors; both may need to happen in tandem. With elections next year, public spending and repressive measures will likely continue, if not increase.

Impacts of high-speed railway on the industrial pollution emissions in China

Kybernetes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (11) ◽  
pp. 2713-2735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaomin Fan ◽  
Yingzhi Xu ◽  
Yongqing Nan ◽  
Baoli Li ◽  
Haiya Cai
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Effects ◽  
Industrial Pollution ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
High Speed Railway ◽  
Central Cities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pollution Emissions ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of high-speed railway (HSR) on industrial pollution emissions using the data for 285 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2016. Design/methodology/approach The research method used in this paper is the multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model, which is an effective policy effect assessment method. To further address the issue of endogeneity, the DID integrated with the propensity score matching (PSM-DID) approach is employed to eliminate the potential self-selection bias. Findings The results show that the HSR has significantly reduced industrial pollution emissions, which is validated by several robustness tests. Compared with peripheral cities, HSR exerts a greater impact on industrial pollution emissions in central cities. In addition, the mechanism test reveals that the optimised allocation of inter-city industries is an important channel for HSR to mitigate industrial pollution emissions, and this is closely related to the location of HSR stations. Originality/value Previous studies have paid more attention to evaluating the economic effects of HSR, however, most of these studies overlook its environmental effects. Consequently, the impact of HSR on industrial pollution emissions is led by using multi-period DID models in this paper, in which the environmental effects are measured. The results of this paper can provide a reference for the pollution reduction policies and also the coordinated development of economic growth and environmental quality.

Technology revolutions and social development

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 454-482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter L. Daniels
Keyword(s):  
Energy Saving ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Production Factor ◽  
Human Welfare ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy And Environment ◽  
Socioeconomic System ◽  
Trade Competitiveness ◽  
Development Approach

PurposeAims to assess the potential for a broad “green” technoeconomic paradigm (TEP) to effectively achieve and sustain higher levels of welfare from economic and environmental sources in manylower income countries (LIC). A green TEP comprises a new socioeconomic system based upon a set of inter‐related technologies that increase human welfare, but focus upon saving material, energy and other environmental resources. TEPs have pervasive social and economic effects that include substantial productivity, trade competitiveness, and environmental quality advantages. The desirability of such economic change must incorporate the general approach of social economics and alternative notions of well‐being.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is largely discursive in nature and provides a systematic identification of the LIC conditions that are likely to promote, and benefit from, the pervasive adoption of material‐ and energy‐saving technologies. Some results of an exploratory cross‐country study of the empirical link between technology capability and the human development index (HDI) are utilized in the discussion.FindingsThe paper concludes that a green TEP may well provide a viable alternative development approach in the LICs. The main advantages are derived from related resource efficiency gains and reductions in the socioeconomic metabolism, and the benefits of a relative production factor shift toward labor (and away from materials, energy, and environment‐intensive capital). The potential for LICs is also facilitated by the positive spillovers and decreasing cost of green TEP‐related knowledge and technology diffusion in the expanding, decentralizing global communication network. The higher income nations would need to play a significant role in this process.Originality/valueEcological modernisation and material and energy‐saving technologies are widely viewed as essential for achieving long‐term economic and social well‐being improvements in the twenty‐first century and beyond. Discussion of this promising approach typically assumes that this transformation is only viable in the technological and economic context of the higher income nations. However, this paper provides a detailed case for the strategic encouragement and adoption of a green TEP for sustainable economic development and environmental conditions in LICs.

Alberta's economic woes have political consequences

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Oil Sands ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Structural Unemployment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Remaining Oil ◽  
Keystone Xl

Significance With steep reductions in public spending affecting education and social programmes, the budget signals an era of austerity in what had been Canada’s wealthiest province. One consequence is likely to be greater tension between the provincial government and the federal government in Ottawa. Impacts Major international funds will continue to divest from the oil sands sector, further depressing output as subsidies are cut. Remaining oil sands production will be increasingly automated, meaning that structural unemployment will persist. Ottawa’s refusal to contest US cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline has raised tensions with the UCP government in Edmonton. The national broad-based economic recovery expected this year will largely bypass Alberta.

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