Argentina's domestic woes dictate diplomatic prudence

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Considerable Influence ◽  
Debt Restructuring ◽  
International Context ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Foreign Ministry ◽  
The Imf

Significance Fernandez is currently focusing diplomatic efforts on garnering support for a major debt restructuring proposal which is to be launched next month and requires the backing of the IMF and creditors. With debt and investment areas of key concern, the foreign ministry has recovered considerable influence over economic relations and foreign trade. Impacts Failure to show results on debt and investment could undermine efforts to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy. Debt talks are likely to advance but investment will be slow to follow. The international context will be largely unfavourable to Argentina in the near term at least.

Brazilian foreign policy faces new challenges

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Border Security ◽  
Foreign Affairs ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Opening ◽  
The Government ◽  
Foreign Ministry

Subject Brazilian foreign policy under Aloysio Nunes. Significance Senator Aloysio Nunes, who took office as foreign minister on March 7, is an experienced politician from the centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB). He led the bloc supporting the government of President Michel Temer in the Senate, where he was also since 2015 head of the Commission of Foreign Affairs and National Defence. Nunes replaces Jose Serra at the foreign ministry and will seek overall continuity of Serra's agenda focused on the pursuit of trade opening and border security. Impacts Brazil lacks a clear strategy for its crucial relationship with China. Border security, a key issue for Serra, will remain important for Nunes. Domestic politics may divert Nunes’s attention as the 2018 elections approach.

Russia prioritises ties with West despite its rhetoric

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Policy Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term

Subject Russia's new foreign policy document. Significance A new foreign policy concept presents Russia as a nation facing a range of security threats but nevertheless willing to play a global role in a multipolar, chaotic and unpredictable world. Replacing the 2013 foreign policy concept, the document also attempts to assuage fears of Russian expansionist intent. Impacts Assumptions about the United States may change rapidly under President Donald Trump. Moscow will strengthen its foothold in Syria as a bargaining chip with the West and to show its resolve not to back down under pressure. Russia will refuse to relax control over Ukraine's eastern regions. Asian policy will consist partly of courting China and partly of seeking alliances to counterbalance this. Economic cooperation with Japan will be constrained by lack of a near-term deal on territorial issues.

Angolan government will point to early reform progress

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuel Distribution ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Near Term ◽  
State Relations ◽  
The Imf

Significance The underperformance of the oil sector, coupled with a recent fuel distribution crisis, have combined to dampen growth forecasts for 2019. While President Joao Lourenco’s government has earned praise for recent fiscal consolidation efforts, economic frailties linger. Impacts The Angolan authorities will accelerate efforts to repay arrears to Portuguese companies amid improving state relations. A potential inflationary spike once value added taxation (VAT) is introduced may lessen the chance of an interest rate cut in the near term. Improving agricultural production will be a major diversification priority and agricultural spending has quadrupled in the revised budget. The IMF will maintain pressure on Luanda to reduce subsidies in sectors such as agriculture and fisheries.

Near-term IMF funds are ample, but more may be needed

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
First Responder ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
The Imf

Subject IMF funding dynamics. Significance The disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is putting emerging markets (EMs) and low-income Countries (LICs) under economic and financial stresses. The IMF has long served as the world’s first responder to crises, and some 90 countries have already turned to it, raising fears of whether it has adequate resources to play a systemic role in helping to support these countries. Impacts A second wave of COVID-19 infections and deaths would prolong the economic crisis and could sharply raise demands for IMF resources. The organisation needs a quota increase but the fastest way to raise more resources for EMs is by increasing bilateral borrowing. For low-income countries, additional IMF funding is being mobilised.

President’s absence will blunt Nigerian foreign policy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Islamic Movement ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Export Revenue

Subject Nigeria's foreign policy priorities Significance Nigeria’s foreign policy priorities are shaped by four key drivers: counterterrorism operations against Boko Haram; diversification of the economy away from oil; infrastructural development; and promoting local industrialisation in line with the Nigeria Industrial Revolution Plan (NIRP). However, the absence of ill President Muhammadu Buhari risks obscuring broader diplomatic goals. Impacts The United States is likely to remain the largest foreign investor in Nigeria in the near term -- despite growing Chinese investment. Despite diversification plans, oil export revenue will be the country’s main foreign exchange earner in the short-to-medium term. Tensions over the detention of the Shia Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN) leader are unlikely to lead to a break in Iran-Nigeria relations.

Beirut will need IMF support, despite political costs

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Pragmatic Approach ◽  
Debt Restructuring ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Force ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Costs ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Imf

Significance This followed the government’s decision to default, for the first time ever, on bonds maturing on March 9. There is a mounting controversy over whether to seek financial support from the IMF for a comprehensive debt restructuring programme, especially as COVID-19 further intensifies the economic crisis. Hezbollah, Lebanon’s dominant political force, initially vetoed any such recourse, but may be softening its stance. Impacts One possible source of support could be Qatar, which has shown a pragmatic approach to working alongside Hezbollah in the past. IMF-agreed reforms would likely impose further hardship on an already-suffering population. IMF and donor finance would at least put dollars back in the market, albeit at a higher price, and safeguard imports.

Prospects for Russian foreign policy in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Economic Power ◽  
Russian Foreign Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Relations

Subject Prospects for Russian foreign policy in 2020. Significance Moscow cannot compete with US or Chinese economic power, so is maximising local advantages and expanding its footprint in selected foreign theatres, particularly the Middle East, and trying to supplant US interests where it is able. Russia is still looking for openings to repair economic relations with major partners despite the constraints of Western sanctions.

Ethiopian conflict may intensify rather than ease

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Debt Restructuring ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Regional Governments

Significance Although Demeke also referenced the possibility of resolving Ethiopia’s conflicts through a national dialogue, the government’s wider rhetoric and military build-up instead signal a likely intensification of the conflict over the near term. Impacts The humanitarian situation will deteriorate further, with famine likely in Tigray and parts of northern Amhara. The economy will continue to face tremendous pressure from high inflation, forex shortages and debt restructuring challenges. The ruling party may try to bring some opposition figures into national and regional governments in a nod to inclusivity.

Yugoslavia’s Foreign Policy in Balkan Perspective: Tracking between the Superpowers and Non-Alignment

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 97-113
Author(s):  
John R. Lampe
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
The Us ◽  
European Trade ◽  
Special Relationships ◽  
Soviet Invasion ◽  
Foreign Ministry

From 1960 forward, Yugoslavia based its independent foreign policy on three “special relationships”, balancing its accommodation with the Soviet Union by close relations with the United States and the new Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). Paying special attention to the roles of Yugoslavia’s Foreign Ministry and the US State Department as well as President Tito, this article addresses three crucial periods in which the intersection of Yugoslavia’s relations with the US, the USSR and the NAM prompted a decisive turn in its foreign policy. In 1961–63, Tito’s support for the NAM damaged its US relations to Soviet benefit. But in 1967–71, NAM indifference to the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia turned Tito back toward the US, as advocated by his Foreign Ministry. And in 1976-79, Soviet and Bulgarian efforts to coopt the NAM through Cuba’s Presidency prompted a successful rebuff led by Yugoslavia and appreciated in Washington. After 1979, however, Belgrade’s post Tito reliance on economic relations with the NAM members had unintended and damaging domestic consequences, obstructing the Slovenian and Croatian commitment to West European trade while also dividing Bosnian Muslims from Bosnian Serbs.

IMF inclined to shun third Greek bailout

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Capital Cost ◽  
Debt Restructuring ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Greek Government ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
Interest Costs ◽  
The Imf

Significance EU institutions have offered modest debt restructuring but are demanding higher levels of repayments for a decade, financed by tax hikes and spending cuts that would be legislated in advance to ensure commitments are met and sustained. The IMF has argued instead for greater debt reduction, a more relaxed fiscal policy to promote growth and for structural changes to improve competitiveness, but also demanded prior legislation. The Greek government insists it will not ‘pre-legislate’ what would be tantamount to a fourth bailout. Impacts Greece must secure its next bailout tranche before July/August when it faces debt redemptions of 7.5 billion euros. The Europeans want to ensure the Greek debt issue does not roil markets or anger voters during pending Dutch, French and German elections. They also are pursuing a stepped-up repayment schedule starting next year. The IMF restructuring proposal would postpone income but have no capital cost for European creditors while cutting Greek interest costs.

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