Radical US Israeli-Palestinian peace plan will fail

Significance This partly reflected fears that the Trump administration’s promised “ultimate deal” to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict may include neither element. US envoy and principal author Jason Greenblatt said on September 13 that work on the secret plan had entered the “pre-launch phase”, despite Palestinian opposition. Impacts Unilateral Israeli annexation of large parts of the West Bank is becoming increasingly plausible as right-wing discourse changes. Tel Aviv will resist a return to Palestinian Authority control in Gaza, with many politicians preferring the existing split with Hamas. Despite half-promises to Trump, Saudi Arabia cannot afford to abandon the Palestinian cause. Russia may partly move into the abandoned US mediation role but lacks the commitment and leverage to force a solution.

Significance Encouraged by a supportive US administration, Israel is pressing ahead with plans to expand existing Jewish settlements in the West Bank and even to regularise outposts established without the government’s sanction. Palestinians complain that this policy is steadily eroding the prospects for a two-state solution. Impacts Rising despair and internal divisions could stoke a new round of violent Palestinian protest. The dispute over the legitimacy of settlements could assist right-wing efforts to limit the power of Israel's Supreme Court. Controversy over settlements may undermine US attempts to forge an alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia against Iran.


Significance The allegations against Netanyahu involve the acceptance of expensive gifts from wealthy businessmen and an attempt to close a confidential deal on coverage with the publisher of a major newspaper, who until now has been considered his arch-rival. Police are also investigating accusations relating to the role of Netanyahu’s personal lawyer in major procurement contracts between the Israeli navy and a German manufacturer. Impacts Public support for Netanyahu by ministers from his Likud party could be undercut in private. Netanyahu is likely to resist increased right-wing pressure to annex parts of the West Bank, fearing a US response. The accusations have put the premier under extreme political pressure, which might affect his responses to rising tensions with Gaza.


Headline QATAR/PALESTINIANS: Doha will isolate the West Bank


Significance The ‘Abraham Peace Accords’ between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and between Israel and Bahrain, were signed in September, after being brokered by the US Trump administration. Deals with Sudan and Morocco have since followed. Impacts Palestinian complaints will become more pointed as other Arab-Israeli ties strengthen and tourism increases. The Biden administration could engage in more scrutiny of right-wing Israeli claims, especially over the West Bank settlements. As right-wing politicians entrench their dominance, archaeological finds will drive more nationalistic interpretations of the past.


Significance The new law faces challenge in the Supreme Court, as it imposes Israeli law in the occupied territories, where Palestinian residents have no right to vote. Israel’s right-wing cabinet has also announced plans to authorise new West Bank settlements, reducing the contiguous land available for a potential future Palestinian state -- still the declared aim of the two parties and the international community. Impacts The new US administration could withdraw funds from UN agencies that recognise Palestine. The Palestinian Authority may face a funding crisis in 2017 as aid dries up. Another round of Gaza-Israeli conflict is possible if internal instability leads to more rocket firings.


Significance This came after US Special Envoy Jason Greenblatt set conditions for the engagement of a future Palestinian unity government in peace negotiations that closely echoed Israeli demands, including acceptance of non-violence, recognition of the state of Israel and disarmament. Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, on October 12 signed a reconciliation agreement in Cairo with the Fatah party, which controls the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank. Impacts Israel will never allow Hamas to play any significant role in the West Bank, whatever the terms of the deal. Easing the blockade on Gaza could bring a construction boom that would boost Egypt’s economy as well. Even if the agreement breaks down, another round of fighting with Israel in Gaza is unlikely, as it would benefit no party.


Significance Popular anger in Jordan over the settlements has increased since the publication of US President Donald Trump’s Israeli-Palestinian peace plan on January 28, which no longer allows Israeli rule in East Jerusalem and the West Bank to be understood as temporary. Despite its deep financial and military dependence on Washington, Amman was forced to follow the Palestinians in immediately rebuffing the proposal. Impacts Jordan’s traditional role as custodian of Jerusalem’s holy sites could be threatened, possibly in favour of Saudi Arabia. Any undermining of the royal family’s religious authority would weaken its domestic legitimacy. The plan’s demand that Jordan enable the deal by policing transit into and out of the West Bank would further stretch scarce resources.


Significance Trump asserted that the decision was necessary to promote regional security and stability. As with his 2017 decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the president is breaking with an international consensus on the status of the Golan Heights, which was captured from Syria in 1967. Impacts The decision will further undermine Palestinian confidence that the United States is an impartial broker. It will raise questions over the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Forces (UNDOF). A limited campaign of rocket attacks into the Golan Heights by Hezbollah or other Iran-backed groups is possible. The move will further highlight policy towards Israel as a partisan issue in US domestic politics. Some right-wing Israeli and US politicians will use the momentum to push for Israeli annexation of the West Bank.


Significance The pledge is the latest in a string of Israeli policy announcements that further undermine the purpose of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to pave the way for an independent state. Bitter disputes in recent months with Israel -- and the United States -- have left the PA virtually bankrupt and generated a deep economic crisis in the West Bank. Impacts An August fuel tax agreement will tide the PA over financially for a short while. The PA’s refusal to accept financial transfers from Israel offer a popularity boost, disincentivising reconciliation. Pressures on UN refugee funding, on which many Palestinians rely, will grow.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Joel Singer

Abstract This article tells the story of how and why, when negotiating the Israeli-Palestinian Oslo Accords in 1993–95, the author developed the concept of dividing the West Bank into three areas with differing formulas for allocating responsibilities between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in each. The origin of how these areas were named is also discussed. This negotiation demonstrates that parties are prepared to modify ideological positions when detailed and practical options are presented that constitute a hybrid to the parties’ former positions.


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