Radical US Israeli-Palestinian peace plan will fail
Significance This partly reflected fears that the Trump administration’s promised “ultimate deal” to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict may include neither element. US envoy and principal author Jason Greenblatt said on September 13 that work on the secret plan had entered the “pre-launch phase”, despite Palestinian opposition. Impacts Unilateral Israeli annexation of large parts of the West Bank is becoming increasingly plausible as right-wing discourse changes. Tel Aviv will resist a return to Palestinian Authority control in Gaza, with many politicians preferring the existing split with Hamas. Despite half-promises to Trump, Saudi Arabia cannot afford to abandon the Palestinian cause. Russia may partly move into the abandoned US mediation role but lacks the commitment and leverage to force a solution.