Internal disarray may create explosive Congo elections

Significance However, despite their public unity and insistence that they are ready for elections, the opposition leaders only repeated their vow to appoint a single opposition candidate, without delivering a name, suggesting that factional differences have not yet been overcome. Meanwhile, insecurities across the political spectrum are beginning to coalesce into what could be a recipe for a deeply turbulent election period -- or even no election at all. Impacts The government will try to endow the elections with a veneer of legitimacy, as long as this does not threaten its own survival. Whoever wins the elections will struggle to assert control of a deeply factionalised political system with entrenched loyalties. Should the ruling coalition emerge from elections, it will likely intensify its calls for the withdrawal of UN peacekeepers.

Significance The region’s current tax and spending policies redistribute very little. The COVID-19 pandemic brought a deep and persistent recession, despite new spending, tax cuts and monetary easing aimed at limiting the damage. In December, the government of Argentina, which was particularly hard hit, passed a temporary (and additional) net wealth tax on the very richest households. Impacts OECD-led transparency efforts offer the long-sought possibility of taxing the foreign assets of wealthy Latin Americans. The pandemic will increase both existing inequalities and the need for tax revenues to finance social welfare and stimulus spending. Efforts to strengthen tax collection more broadly will likely be undertaken by governments across the political spectrum.


Significance This is a crucial step for the government before year-end, together with long-term banking issues and slowing economic recovery. The European Commission has allowed Italy considerable fiscal flexibility; the government promises to start reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio this year. However, the slowdown could delay achieving this goal. Under this scenario, the government has to campaign for the referendum on its Senate reform. A 'yes' vote is key not only for reforming the political system, but the government's survival. Impacts A 'no' outcome would pull Italy into deep uncertainty concerning its political leadership. It would also end Renzi's premiership; a new majority could follow up to the 2018 general election. However, since Renzi is the PD leader, he is unlikely to support a new government; early elections are likely. In case of a 'yes' outcome, Renzi's premiership will be reinforced, marking a turning point to his declining popularity.


Significance The new government will have only 34 of the 179 seats, because policy differences among the right-wing parties, and the political strategy of the electorally strengthened anti-immigration, Euro-sceptic Danish People's Party (DF), mean DF will remain outside. Policy-making will be difficult. The government will be more economically liberal and pro-EU than it would have been with DF, but to make policy it will rely on partners across the political spectrum, especially the ousted Social Democrats -- who remain the largest party -- and DF. Impacts If DF is seen as a welfarist protector of ordinary citizens, it is more likely to repeat, at least, its 22% vote in the next election. The much-tighter immigration regime which is in prospect could taint Denmark's image and make it less attractive to foreign investment. The new government is likely to be an ally for much of UK Prime Minister David Cameron's EU reform agenda.


Significance The National Liberation Front (FLN) and Democratic National Rally (RND) received the most seats, as expected, amid widespread voter apathy. Impacts The government will continue its austerity strategy in response to the low oil price, and face more social tension and protests. The young generation will lose even more trust in the political system and opt for protest, resignation and emigration. The supporters of security and economic cooperation with the United States within the regime were strengthened.


Significance Seven months after a general election, the country remains without a government amid a dispute between Hezbollah, a Shia group, and the Sunni Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri. Yet the government formation crisis is not only a product of Sunni-Shia tensions in the region; it stems equally from deep schisms in the Christian community. Impacts Continued confrontation will keep Christians divided and weak in the political system. If Aoun is incapacitated, the interim government would disagree over the process to replace him, triggering a much deeper governing crisis. If Washington implements a full range of sanctions against Hezbollah-linked activities, the financial system would threaten to collapse.


Significance Two major earthquakes hit southern and central Mexico on September 7 and 19, killing at least 340 people and damaging thousands of buildings. The disaster has sparked a public backlash against the political system (in particular the high level of public financing for political parties) which could see the government review its 2018 budget proposals, published on September 8. Impacts The fiscal cost, though substantial, should not dent Mexico's investment grade ratings. Any popularity boost Pena Nieto might receive due to the government’s swift disaster response will be fleeting. The army’s performance in the rescue efforts should help improve its tarnished image. Any more disasters, whether earthquakes, hurricanes or volcanic eruptions could push state funds and logistical capacity to breaking point.


2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 98-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Can Küçükali

This article explores how specific narratives of the past can be functionalized/instrumentalized as discursive strategies in order to gain political power. To investigate this issue, four relevant governmental and non-governmental texts about the main opposition party in Turkey are analysed. The Republican People’s Party (CHP), which played a historic role by becoming a state party between 1923 and 1946, and which later adopted a social democratic position in the political system, has frequently been criticized by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) for its historical identity. The article illuminates how discursive strategies of argumentation, nomination and predication are used to portray the CHP as an enduring bureaucratic-militarist state party and the ways in which these strategies are functionalized by AKP politicians as well as by public intellectuals in favour of the government.


Subject The government of President Juan Orlando Hernandez faces major challenges. Significance Pressure has been growing on President Juan Orlando Hernandez as a result of a corruption scandal and potential constitutional reform. Even if he is not forced to accede to calls for his resignation, political weakness may force him to make deals with his opponents. Impacts Continuing protests over corruption will erode the legitimacy of the government. The government will appear increasingly open to the possibility of an international anti-corruption body. Constitutional reforms offer potential for deals to be struck across the political spectrum.


2017 ◽  
pp. 110-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elżbieta Kużelewska

This article analyses the impact of constitutional referendums on the political system in Italy. There were three constitutional referendums conducted in 2001, 2006 and 2016. All of them have been organised by the ruling parties, however, only the first one was successful. In the subsequent referendums, the proposals for amending the constitution have been rejected by voters. The article finds that lack of public support for the government resulted in voting „no” in the referendum.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peshraw Mohammed Ameen

In this research we dealt with the aspects of the presidential system and the semi-presidential system, and he problematic of the political system in the Kurdistan Region. Mainly The presidential system has stabilized in many important countries, and the semi-presidential concept is a new concept that can be considered a mixture of parliamentary and presidential principles. One of the features of a semi-presidential system is that the elected president is accountable to parliament. The main player is the president who is elected in direct or indirect general elections. And the United States is a model for the presidential system, and France is the most realistic model for implementing the semi-presidential system. The French political system, which lived a long period under the traditional parliamentary system, introduced new adjustments in the power structure by strengthening the powers of the executive authority vis-à-vis Parliament, and expanding the powers of the President of the Republic. In exchange for the government while remaining far from bearing political responsibility, and therefore it can be said that the French system has overcome the elements of the presidential system in terms of objectivity and retains the elements of the parliamentary system in terms of formality, so it deserves to be called the semi-presidential system. Then the political system in the Kurdistan Region is not a complete parliamentary system, and it is not a presidential system in light of the presence of a parliament with powers. Therefore, the semi-presidential system is the most appropriate political system for this region, where disputes are resolved over the authority of both the parliament and the regional president, and a political system is built stable. And that because The presence of a parliamentary majority, which supports a government based on a strategic and stable party coalition, which is one of the current problems in the Kurdistan region. This dilemma can be solved through the semi-presidential system. And in another hand The impartiality of the head of state in the relationship with the government and parliament. The head of state, with some relations with the government, can participate in legislative competencies with Parliament.


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