UK premier survives to deliver Brexit deal

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Authority ◽  
Adverse Impact ◽  
House Of Commons ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Market Turbulence ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Eu

Significance Prime Minister Theresa May's keynote address had been billed in advance as key to whether she would have the personal political authority to conclude any kind of deal with the EU before the end of this year and see it endorsed by the House of Commons. It was also viewed as a showcase for the support that former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson might have with Conservative activists as his positions himself for the succession to May. Impacts Although a deal is likely, a high level of drama and market turbulence around the United Kingdom can be expected between now and end-2018. Ambiguity of outcome in the overall EU-UK relationship is likely to persist through 2020. External investment is thus likely to be paused in the short term, with an adverse impact on UK growth.

May is unlikely to form a majority for her Brexit plan

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
House Of Commons ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Eu

Significance The rocky passage of both has laid out Prime Minister Theresa May’s key Brexit dilemma: she will struggle to secure a majority in the House of Commons for her eventual deal with the EU. Impacts The parliamentary victories have secured May's short-term future. There is a majority against no deal in parliament; its likelihood depends on whether MPs can find a route to assert this majority. The likelihood of other outcomes, such as a general election or a further referendum on EU membership before March 29, 2019, has increased.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

Japan's foreign policy caution will not last

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Korean ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
High Level ◽  
Economic Ties

Subject Recent developments in Japanese foreign policy. Significance This month has seen a flurry of high-level diplomatic activity. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has visited Germany, France, Italy, Belgium and the United Kingdom and Russia. Over the same period, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida visited China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and Vietnam. Impacts Except for Washington, G7 governments have more interest in economic ties with Beijing than in Tokyo's concerns about territorial issues. Japan's willingness to engage Russia may draw the West's ire in due course. The process of relocating the Futenma airbase may drag on for another decade. TPP ratification will be slower than Abe wanted, but US politics is the greatest obstacle. A weakened South Korean administration could find itself pushed into a more hostile approach to Tokyo.

An opening of the Brexit deadlock nears

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Political Change ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Alternative Plan ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Subject Brexit outlook. Significance If Prime Minister Theresa May can get the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and Political Declaration on future relations approved in Parliament this week, the United Kingdom should leave the EU on May 22. However, it remains unlikely that her deal will gain a parliamentary majority, setting up a different deadline. The United Kingdom must come up with an alternative plan by April 12 or face the prospect of crashing out of the EU with no deal. Impacts The United Kingdom could have a new prime minister within weeks; a general election cannot be ruled out. The EU will remain distracted by Brexit as it heads into a season of political change beginning with European Parliament elections in May. As a final option, May could commit to resigning to get support for the WA from Conservative Party MPs.

UK market bill poses internal and external risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
Political Survival ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Eu

Significance The bill establishes a new statutory regime for goods and services trade within the United Kingdom, which is essential for signing trade agreements. However, it also contains clauses on the Northern Ireland Protocol which threaten to override the legally binding EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement (WA), while giving London new powers over the devolved administrations, including on state aid. Impacts The EU is unlikely to collapse the trade talks with the United Kingdom. An EU-UK deal is still possible because the alternative would seriously threaten Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s political survival. The new bill, on top of COVID-19, will give the opposition Labour Party an opportunity to overtake the Conservatives in the polls.

Czech election result will depend on undecided voters

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Policy ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Common Currency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
The Common ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Eu

Significance A series of scandals surrounding Prime Minister Andrej Babis, including the newly released Pandora Papers, threaten to undermine ANO’s popularity. A challenge may come from the centre-right SPOLU coalition, campaigning on a strong anti-Babis programme. The key question is which way undecided voters will finally lean. Impacts The Communists, who are currently teetering on the 5% electoral threshold, could eventually disappear from high-level politics. If ANO retains power, the government's European policy will focus on defending Babis’s interests before the EU. Either of the two opposition blocs would pursue a more constructive European policy if they won. Introduction of the euro is unlikely in the foreseeable future, as supporters of the common currency are significantly in the minority.

The outlook for UK-EU relations is poor

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Future ◽  
Economic Relationship ◽  
The Eu

Significance They are intended to set the framework for the future economic relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU. However, they have become a source of deep political division and mistrust, exacerbating concerns about the future of their political and economic relationship. Impacts A further deterioration in UK-EU trade relations would threaten to undermine peace and stability in Northern Ireland. Negative trade news is unlikely to shift opinions significantly on Brexit or support for Prime Minister Boris Johnson. UK hostility towards defence and security cooperation underpinned by EU institutional arrangements will remain strong.

Hi-tech competition will colour EU-US friendly ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
State Aid ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Power ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance Earlier, on August 30, the Commission said the Irish government's tax arrangements with Apple constituted illegal state aid that required a payment of 13 billion euros (14.4 billion dollars) to the Irish authorities. The cases have given rise to suspicions that the EU authorities are unfairly targeting US companies. Impacts Short-term relations with the US government will deteriorate but -- if the Microsoft experience is any guide -- without lasting damage. The Apple ruling may bolster the Commission's reputation, as concerns over corporate power and inequality resonate with the EU public. Once it is outside the EU, the United Kingdom may have few attractions as a hub for US internet operations.

Financial innovations will evolve with global farming

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Agriculture Policy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wine Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Innovations ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Supply Chain Risks ◽  
The Eu ◽  
European Agriculture

Subject Financial innovation in European agriculture Significance Changes to Europe’s Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) are coinciding with increased political uncertainty to create new supply chain risks for farmers and agribusinesses. For financial services firms, there are opportunities to develop services and tools to manage and transfer critical risks. In 2015, European milk production quotas were abolished. Planting rights and quotas are due to be removed from sugar beet and wine production. Impacts Short-term uncertainty in trade agreements is likely to prompt firms to invest more in risk management. Brexit uncertainty may result in more variable demand, encouraging the use of financial services to stabilise incomes and price key risks. Ireland is exposed to the Brexit talks as the United Kingdom is a key importer of Irish products and Ireland is a land border with the EU.

A substantial US-UK trade agreement is unlikely

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Ability To Drive ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK-US trade talks. Significance Hard-line Brexiteers have long viewed a trade agreement with the United States as an important political and economic benefit for the United Kingdom from leaving the EU. With Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s determination to deliver Brexit by October 31 with or without a deal -- the latter appearing more likely -- the prospect of UK-US trade negotiations has risen up the political agenda. Impacts Washington knows a trade deal is politically important to the Conservatives, strengthening its ability to drive a deal favourable to itself. It will be very difficult for London to address regulatory obstacles with the United States without increasing them in trade with the EU. London’s positions on such issues as Iran and Huawei will likely affect the UK’s overall leverage with the United States.

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