Sri Lanka’s new prime minister will be secure

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
National Party ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Development

Significance This came after Sirisena dissolved the National Unity Government (NUG) that included his Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP). Sirisena unseated Rajapaksa in the January 2015 presidential election and Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) splintered from the SLFP after the latter joined the NUG following the August 2015 parliamentary election. The SLPP, popular among Sinhalese Buddhist nationalists, wants 2020 parliamentary polls brought forward, for which two-thirds of lawmakers would need to be in favour. Impacts The crisis could derail efforts to promote reconciliation between ethnic Sinhalese and Tamil communities. A sustained Rajapaksa prime ministership would likely see Sri Lanka court more investment from China. Joint development projects involving India are likely to slow further, raising concerns in Delhi.

Sri Lanka opposition will struggle in upcoming poll

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
National Party ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
Provincial Councils ◽  
To Come

Subject Outook for Sri Lanka's opposition ahead of a parliamentary election. Significance President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on March 2 dissolved parliament and called a parliamentary election for April 25. Interim Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, Gotabaya’s brother, will be aiming to return to power. The main challenge to the pro-Rajapaksa alliance, the Sri Lanka Nidahas Podujana Sandanaya (SLNPS), is set to come from an alliance formed by members of the opposition United National Party (UNP), the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB). Impacts Concerns over COVID-19 are unlikely to disrupt the election. The SJB will likely win more votes in the north and east, where ethnic Tamil voters are concentrated, than in the south and west. Elections for provincial councils will probably be held after the parliamentary poll.

Sinhalese-Muslim tensions will rise in Sri Lanka

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Free Speech ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
National Party ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections

Significance President Maithripala Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP), which form the National Unity Government (NUG), performed poorly in last month’s local elections, in which former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) -- popular among Sinhalese Buddhist nationalists -- swept to victory. Sri Lanka’s next presidential and parliamentary elections are due in 2020. Impacts Tourism and foreign direct investment are likely to be adversely impacted by frequent communal clashes. Amid concern over social media’s use to orchestrate violence, Sri Lanka could introduce legislation that curbs free speech. Further violence would increase friction between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe, threatening the NUG’s stability.

Sri Lanka is likely to face early elections

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
National Party ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Party Discipline ◽  
Content Type

Subject Political instability in Sri Lanka. Significance Parliament resumed early last month after being prorogued by President Maithripala Sirisena. Sri Lanka’s National Unity Government (NUG), formed after the 2015 legislative elections, is a coalition between Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP). Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) leads the Joint Opposition (JO). According to the constitution, a two-thirds parliamentary majority would be required for Sirisena to bring forward the next legislative elections due in 2020. Impacts The breakdown in party discipline in parliament suggests instability will be a long-term feature of Sri Lankan politics. Judicial campaigns against the Rajapaksa family will intensify, despite its sustained political influence. Political uncertainty will cause the Sri Lankan rupee to fall further against the dollar.

Opposition is ahead in Sri Lanka's presidential race

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Party ◽  
Minority Communities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And India ◽  
Multilateral Institutions

Subject Sri Lanka's upcoming presidential election. Significance Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has in the last week held talks with various stakeholders as his United National Party (UNP) delays naming a candidate to contest the presidential election, due between November 9 and December 9. President Maithripala Sirisena, who leads the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), has previously expressed an interest in seeking a second term. The opposition Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), effectively an SLFP offshoot, last month nominated Gotabaya Rajapaksa as its candidate. Impacts There will likely be outbreaks of violence ahead of the election, with minority communities feeling especially vulnerable. Local businesses may be set back by limited productivity and demand during campaigning. Multilateral institutions and countries such as China and India will delay discussing new projects in Sri Lanka until the poll is over.

Sri Lanka will count on IMF help and debt rescheduling

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Full Term ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Strong Ties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Debt Rescheduling

Subject Impact of COVID-19 on Sri Lanka's debt situation. Significance Sri Lanka depends heavily for its foreign exchange on remittances and tourism, both of which have been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis. Even before the pandemic, the country was struggling with debt and reliant on IMF support to shore up its economy. Impacts President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government will pursue balanced diplomacy, seeking strong ties with both Beijing and Delhi. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa will likely secure a mandate for a full term as premier in a parliamentary election scheduled for June. Colombo will struggle to cast aside its dependence on short-term borrowing.

New Sri Lankan president will zero in on 2020 poll

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
National Party ◽  
Strong Ties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Concerns

Significance The front runners are Gotabaya Rajapaksa, from the opposition Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), and Sajith Premadasa, from Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's United National Party (UNP). The next elections to parliament, where no party or alliance currently has a majority, are due by end-2020. Impacts As president, Rajapaksa would be better able than Premadasa to negotiate the uncertain period between presidential and parliamentary polls. Delhi and Beijing will quickly congratulate the victor, eager to demonstrate a wish for strong ties with the new administration. Recent arrests in Malaysia of suspected sympathisers of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam will raise some security concerns in Sri Lanka.

Indian investment in Sri Lanka will proceed slowly

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Tank Farm ◽  
Chinese Military ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Oil Tank

Subject India's plans to invest in projects in Sri Lanka. Significance Burgeoning Chinese investment in Sri Lanka is prompting India to advance its economic and security interests in its island neighbour. Sri Lanka’s National Unity Government (NUG) -- a coalition between President Maithripala Sirisena’s faction of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP) -- is discussing with Delhi separate deals for Colombo to divest stakes in an airport in Hambantota and an oil-tank farm in Trincomalee. Impacts India is likely to step up investment plans in Nepal, vying with China for influence over the incoming leftist government. Any sign of Chinese military vessels docking at Hambantota would raise alarm in Delhi. Australia will likely join India, Japan and the United States in its annual naval drills in the Indian Ocean.

Rajapaksa party should easily win Sri Lanka election

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Full Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Mahinda Rajapaksa, a former president and leader of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), is seeking a mandate for a full term as prime minister; he was appointed premier last November after victory for his brother and party colleague, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, in a presidential election. Meanwhile, plans by certain politicians to consolidate the opposition challenge have foundered. Impacts The Rajapaksas will campaign for the election on a strongly nationalist platform. Muslim voters are more likely to back opposition parties, but some will support the SLPP. The agriculture sector will likely grow faster than other parts of the economy.

Sri Lanka constitutional reform will end in compromise

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Special Committee ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
The Government

Subject Outlook for constitutional reform. Significance About 18 months after a presidential election and nine months after securing a parliamentary majority, the 'national unity government' of President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe has begun the process of debating a potential new constitution. After some delay, a resolution in parliament was agreed upon by all parties, creating a special committee comprising all MPs to debate the reform. These sessions began in April, and reforms are expected to be agreed by year-end. Impacts The government is unlikely to push anti-graft probes aggressively, somewhat reducing the uncertainty surrounding China-funded projects. Failure to appease moderate Tamil leaders on devolution could embolden Tamil hardliners, sowing seeds for long-term political rifts. Economic reforms will be slow, especially those involving unpopular fiscal austerity measures.

Bulgarian elections will not ease government formation

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Eu

Significance While the presidential election is the scheduled five-yearly poll, the November parliamentary election comes about after elections in April and July failed to resolve political deadlock. Bulgaria is polarised around the personalities of former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov and incumbent President Rumen Radev. Impacts Rising COVID-19 infections and the lowest vaccination level in the EU create a context conducive to the search for quick fixes. The anti-Borisov protest wave is increasingly balanced out by polarisation around Radev’s alleged ambitions. A focus on the record of caretaker governments in charge since May will partially deflect scrutiny of Borisov’s eleven years in government.

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