Sinhalese-Muslim tensions will rise in Sri Lanka

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Free Speech ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
National Party ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections

Significance President Maithripala Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP), which form the National Unity Government (NUG), performed poorly in last month’s local elections, in which former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) -- popular among Sinhalese Buddhist nationalists -- swept to victory. Sri Lanka’s next presidential and parliamentary elections are due in 2020. Impacts Tourism and foreign direct investment are likely to be adversely impacted by frequent communal clashes. Amid concern over social media’s use to orchestrate violence, Sri Lanka could introduce legislation that curbs free speech. Further violence would increase friction between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe, threatening the NUG’s stability.

Sri Lanka is likely to face early elections

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
National Party ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Party Discipline ◽  
Content Type

Subject Political instability in Sri Lanka. Significance Parliament resumed early last month after being prorogued by President Maithripala Sirisena. Sri Lanka’s National Unity Government (NUG), formed after the 2015 legislative elections, is a coalition between Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP). Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) leads the Joint Opposition (JO). According to the constitution, a two-thirds parliamentary majority would be required for Sirisena to bring forward the next legislative elections due in 2020. Impacts The breakdown in party discipline in parliament suggests instability will be a long-term feature of Sri Lankan politics. Judicial campaigns against the Rajapaksa family will intensify, despite its sustained political influence. Political uncertainty will cause the Sri Lankan rupee to fall further against the dollar.

Sri Lanka’s new prime minister will be secure

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
National Party ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Development

Significance This came after Sirisena dissolved the National Unity Government (NUG) that included his Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP). Sirisena unseated Rajapaksa in the January 2015 presidential election and Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) splintered from the SLFP after the latter joined the NUG following the August 2015 parliamentary election. The SLPP, popular among Sinhalese Buddhist nationalists, wants 2020 parliamentary polls brought forward, for which two-thirds of lawmakers would need to be in favour. Impacts The crisis could derail efforts to promote reconciliation between ethnic Sinhalese and Tamil communities. A sustained Rajapaksa prime ministership would likely see Sri Lanka court more investment from China. Joint development projects involving India are likely to slow further, raising concerns in Delhi.

Neither side is ready to step back in Georgian crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
National Movement ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.

Indian attempts to curb media may deter investors

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Speech ◽  
Political Climate ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Media ◽  
Media Censorship ◽  
Central Level

Subject Media censorship in India. Significance The media represents one of the fastest-growing sectors of the Indian economy and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has striven to increase foreign direct investment (FDI) from the estimated 4.3 billion dollars in 2016 and 4.0 billion dollars in 2015. Yet potential investors may be wary of the difficult political climate currently surrounding the industry, as indicated by the recent case of NDTV, whose Hindi-language service was threatened with a 24-hour ban by the broadcasting authorities. Impacts Prospective foreign investors risk becoming involved in legal battles over freedom of speech. Firms advertising on television and in print could be affected by such battles. Media freedoms will be tested at both the regional and central level.

Sri Lanka opposition will struggle in upcoming poll

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
National Party ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
Provincial Councils ◽  
To Come

Subject Outook for Sri Lanka's opposition ahead of a parliamentary election. Significance President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on March 2 dissolved parliament and called a parliamentary election for April 25. Interim Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, Gotabaya’s brother, will be aiming to return to power. The main challenge to the pro-Rajapaksa alliance, the Sri Lanka Nidahas Podujana Sandanaya (SLNPS), is set to come from an alliance formed by members of the opposition United National Party (UNP), the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB). Impacts Concerns over COVID-19 are unlikely to disrupt the election. The SJB will likely win more votes in the north and east, where ethnic Tamil voters are concentrated, than in the south and west. Elections for provincial councils will probably be held after the parliamentary poll.

Indian middle class set to drive domestic tourism boom

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Middle Class ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Domestic Tourism ◽  
Foreign Tourism ◽  
The Impact

Subject Tourism outlook. Significance The tourism and leisure sectors are major employers in the Indian economy, accounting for 12.4% of employment and contributing an estimated 7.0% of GDP in 2014. Foreign tourism is the third-largest foreign exchange earner (generating 18.4 billion dollars in 2013) and among the top ten sectors for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). Accordingly, the 2015-16 budget identified tourism as a key part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's as yet unclear 'Make in India' campaign, expanded its budget and offered new measures to support it. Impacts The decline of the Russian economy will adversely affect Indian tourism, especially in key destination states such as Goa. Inadequate policy attention to women's safety will deter both domestic and foreign travellers. Domestic tourism will be fostered by the weak rupee and the impact of the financial crisis on Western tourists.

New year brings fresh challenges for Ecuador’s Moreno

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Natural Support ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Right

Subject Moreno's challenges. Significance President Lenin Moreno begins 2019 with a new vice-president -- his third so far -- and a deeply divided party. Worsening relations between himself and his predecessor are polarising his natural support base. While he has managed to consolidate his position by forming alliances with the right, he remains in a vulnerable position, and will face major political challenges over the coming year. Impacts Moreno’s continued drift to the right will please international investors and help his government attract foreign direct investment. Moreno’s line on Venezuela signals alignment with regional right-wing governments and a further break with Correa’s foreign policy. Political tensions will build as the local elections approach -- isolated episodes of violence will almost certainly occur.

Modi-Xi summit will foster goodwill but little more

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Jammu And Kashmir ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Chinese Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Constitutional Changes

Subject Upcoming informal summit between Indian and Chinese leaders. Significance Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to be in India on October 11-13 for a second ‘informal’ summit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The first such summit in Wuhan, China, in April 2018 prompted the two countries to tone down their differences following a border standoff the previous year. Since August this year, that rapprochement has come under pressure due to India’s constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir state, part of which is claimed by Beijing. Impacts Rivalry in the Indian Ocean could become a greater source of bilateral tension, depending on government transitions in the region. Since Indian majors are reportedly wary of using Huawei and ZTE core equipment in 5G trials, market barriers may expand in the tech sector. Chinese foreign direct investment in India will be constrained compared to China’s global outbound investment.

New Sri Lankan president will zero in on 2020 poll

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
National Party ◽  
Strong Ties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Concerns

Significance The front runners are Gotabaya Rajapaksa, from the opposition Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), and Sajith Premadasa, from Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's United National Party (UNP). The next elections to parliament, where no party or alliance currently has a majority, are due by end-2020. Impacts As president, Rajapaksa would be better able than Premadasa to negotiate the uncertain period between presidential and parliamentary polls. Delhi and Beijing will quickly congratulate the victor, eager to demonstrate a wish for strong ties with the new administration. Recent arrests in Malaysia of suspected sympathisers of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam will raise some security concerns in Sri Lanka.

Iraq faces a weak new government and rising insecurity

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Strife ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
New Phase

Significance The November 29 resignation of Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi has left a political vacuum. Demonstrations moved into a new phase in December, with militias supporting populist Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr acting as a ‘third force’ to protect the protest sites. Impacts Iranian-backed militias will attack US interests with missiles to demonstrate capability and deter, while aiming to avoid casualties. Unintentional killing of US personnel by Iran-backed militias would prompt a swift, forceful US military response. Increased civil strife is unlikely significantly to affect vital oil exports, which are well protected. The political standoff will discourage foreign direct investment.

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