Sri Lanka constitutional reform will end in compromise

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Special Committee ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
The Government

Subject Outlook for constitutional reform. Significance About 18 months after a presidential election and nine months after securing a parliamentary majority, the 'national unity government' of President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe has begun the process of debating a potential new constitution. After some delay, a resolution in parliament was agreed upon by all parties, creating a special committee comprising all MPs to debate the reform. These sessions began in April, and reforms are expected to be agreed by year-end. Impacts The government is unlikely to push anti-graft probes aggressively, somewhat reducing the uncertainty surrounding China-funded projects. Failure to appease moderate Tamil leaders on devolution could embolden Tamil hardliners, sowing seeds for long-term political rifts. Economic reforms will be slow, especially those involving unpopular fiscal austerity measures.

Kuwait's politics will stall economic reforms

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Extended Period ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Plan ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
International Assets

Significance With huge financial reserves, low public debt and a small population, Kuwait is one of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states best equipped to ride out an extended period of low oil prices. However, with the country registering its first budget deficit in 16 years, concerns about Kuwait's long-term fiscal sustainability have become more pressing, and the government has introduced a reform plan aimed at restructuring the economy. Impacts The government will step up capital spending, launching as many projects as possible before the 2017 election. The private sector is likely to face increased financial costs, eg, corporate taxes, higher utilities charges and employment of nationals. Kuwait will become further integrated into the international bond market, and rely more on its international assets as a source of income. Political tensions could rise ahead of the 2017 poll if the government takes more measures to reduce opposition electoral prospects. Kuwait will lag behind other GCC states in its progress on economic reforms.

French trade union rivalry is likely to intensify

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Movement ◽  
Trade Union ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject French trade unions. Significance French trade unions have found themselves at the centre of a continuing and powerful social movement against the labour reform proposed by the government under President Francois Hollande and Prime Minister Manuel Valls. However, the strong opposition is not just driven by the content of the reform but also by the power struggle among trade unions which are now split into 'reformist' and 'non-reformist' camps. Impacts The division between trade unions is likely to lead to a radicalisation of the non-reformist unions with violent strikes continuing. The government will be held responsible for the lock-down, which will weaken Hollande's re-election bid further. The labour reform dispute could relegitimise non-reformist trade unions in the long term, complicating future reform attempts.

US pressures may overshadow Canada's innovation budget

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Competitive Advantages ◽  
Rules Of Origin ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporation Tax ◽  
The Government ◽  
Regulatory Convergence

Significance The government tabled its budget at the end of March, announcing major investments in skills development, innovation, the environment and infrastructure. The budget aims to strengthen the long-term growth potential of the Canadian economy. However, more immediate economic challenges are likely to occupy the administration of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over the remaining three years of its electoral mandate. Impacts Washington's free-market and protectionist push will hinder regulatory convergence with Canada. A likely cut to US corporation tax could erode Canada's competitive advantages. NAFTA negotiations are more likely to focus on technical tweaks to procurement and rules of origin than dramatic overhaul of its structure.

Expansionary Jordanian budget will contain discontent

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Positive Signal ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Line ◽  
Public Scrutiny ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance That comes as the country’s own parliament prepares to vote on the 2020 fiscal bill before the end of the year. Amman is currently in the last year of a 723-million-dollar IMF credit line, which required it to cut debt levels. The budget is intended to stimulate growth and stave off further protests, while simultaneously persuading the IMF to extend its credit line for another three years during upcoming talks in January. Impacts There will be closer cooperation between the government and parliament over managing the economy. Signs of unrest and public discontent over economic reforms will ease, notably if a tax evasion crackdown features on social media. Razzaz will survive another year as prime minister, having already served 18 months, sending a positive signal to the IMF and investors. King Abdullah and Queen Rania will come under less public scrutiny and distance themselves further from day-to-day politics.

Referendum 'no' vote could trigger crisis in Italy

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Political Leader ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constitutional Reforms ◽  
Silvio Berlusconi ◽  
Excessive Deficit Procedure

Significance Renzi's government will fight two existential battles in the coming weeks: winning the constitutional reform referendum on December 4, and obtaining from the Commission the necessary fiscal flexibility to implement the 2017 budget and avoid an excessive deficit procedure. Impacts A resignation by Renzi would probably lead to political chaos as there is no obvious alternative to him. Renzi's PD is divided over the proposed constitutional reforms and may split in case of a 'no' vote in the referendum. Forming a national unity or technocratic government in case of a 'no' vote may be impossible owing to M5S's unwillingness to compromise. The centre-right is fragmented and no political leader is emerging to fill the void left by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

Sri Lanka is likely to face early elections

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
National Party ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Party Discipline ◽  
Content Type

Subject Political instability in Sri Lanka. Significance Parliament resumed early last month after being prorogued by President Maithripala Sirisena. Sri Lanka’s National Unity Government (NUG), formed after the 2015 legislative elections, is a coalition between Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP). Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) leads the Joint Opposition (JO). According to the constitution, a two-thirds parliamentary majority would be required for Sirisena to bring forward the next legislative elections due in 2020. Impacts The breakdown in party discipline in parliament suggests instability will be a long-term feature of Sri Lankan politics. Judicial campaigns against the Rajapaksa family will intensify, despite its sustained political influence. Political uncertainty will cause the Sri Lankan rupee to fall further against the dollar.

Sri Lanka’s new prime minister will be secure

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
National Party ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Development

Significance This came after Sirisena dissolved the National Unity Government (NUG) that included his Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP). Sirisena unseated Rajapaksa in the January 2015 presidential election and Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) splintered from the SLFP after the latter joined the NUG following the August 2015 parliamentary election. The SLPP, popular among Sinhalese Buddhist nationalists, wants 2020 parliamentary polls brought forward, for which two-thirds of lawmakers would need to be in favour. Impacts The crisis could derail efforts to promote reconciliation between ethnic Sinhalese and Tamil communities. A sustained Rajapaksa prime ministership would likely see Sri Lanka court more investment from China. Joint development projects involving India are likely to slow further, raising concerns in Delhi.

Stability and risk-aversion mark Sri Lanka's outlook

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
First Year ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Political Challenge ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political and economic outlook. Significance The national unity government of President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe completed its first year in July. After a phase of poor cohesion and unpopular decisions, the government is regaining public support. Sirisena, leader of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and Wickremesinghe, leader of the United National Party (UNP), have extended their alliance to 2020, boosting political stability. Yet significant economic and political challenges remain. Impacts Dependence on Chinese investment is unavoidable, but Colombo will seek new partners. Rajapaksa will remain the most important political challenge for the government. Ethnic reconciliation is a distant dream, but overt tensions are subsiding.

Reforms will strengthen Singapore opposition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Constitutional Changes ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Constitutional reform in Singapore. Significance Parliament is expected in August to receive recommendations on electoral and constitutional changes that will affect opposition politics and executive powers. The government raised the initiatives in parliament in January; Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said they would be beneficial to Singapore and its government. However, the measures are also likely to benefit the People's Action Party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore since independence in 1965. Impacts Presidential elections are unlikely to become more competitive. Opposition parties would gain parliamentary exposure if the reform recommendations are enacted. Government scrutiny of corporations' activities in the community and local politics will intensify.

Burundian constitutional reform will deepen crisis

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Basic Needs ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Extrajudicial Killings ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Constitutional Changes

Subject Burundi constitutional reform Significance President Pierre Nkurunziza's third term has been marred by accusations of state-sponsored extrajudicial killings, a regional refugee crisis and international ostracism. Recently, he has launched a campaign to amend the constitution to allow him to run for the presidency again. The government has also hinted at other significant constitutional changes and restructurings of laws governing parties and politics. This would further contract Burundi’s democratic space, already in peril since a 2015 coup attempt and contested presidential election. Impacts Nkurunziza’s plans will face little opposition either from non-partisans within the ruling party or from the formal opposition. Despite deteriorating conditions, most international donors will provide only minimal levels of aid to meet basic needs. Without significant intervention, assassinations and disappearances linked to the regime will likely continue.

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