Sri Lanka opposition will struggle in upcoming poll

Subject Outook for Sri Lanka's opposition ahead of a parliamentary election. Significance President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on March 2 dissolved parliament and called a parliamentary election for April 25. Interim Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, Gotabaya’s brother, will be aiming to return to power. The main challenge to the pro-Rajapaksa alliance, the Sri Lanka Nidahas Podujana Sandanaya (SLNPS), is set to come from an alliance formed by members of the opposition United National Party (UNP), the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB). Impacts Concerns over COVID-19 are unlikely to disrupt the election. The SJB will likely win more votes in the north and east, where ethnic Tamil voters are concentrated, than in the south and west. Elections for provincial councils will probably be held after the parliamentary poll.

Significance This came after Sirisena dissolved the National Unity Government (NUG) that included his Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP). Sirisena unseated Rajapaksa in the January 2015 presidential election and Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) splintered from the SLFP after the latter joined the NUG following the August 2015 parliamentary election. The SLPP, popular among Sinhalese Buddhist nationalists, wants 2020 parliamentary polls brought forward, for which two-thirds of lawmakers would need to be in favour. Impacts The crisis could derail efforts to promote reconciliation between ethnic Sinhalese and Tamil communities. A sustained Rajapaksa prime ministership would likely see Sri Lanka court more investment from China. Joint development projects involving India are likely to slow further, raising concerns in Delhi.


Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.


Subject Impact of COVID-19 on Sri Lanka's debt situation. Significance Sri Lanka depends heavily for its foreign exchange on remittances and tourism, both of which have been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis. Even before the pandemic, the country was struggling with debt and reliant on IMF support to shore up its economy. Impacts President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government will pursue balanced diplomacy, seeking strong ties with both Beijing and Delhi. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa will likely secure a mandate for a full term as premier in a parliamentary election scheduled for June. Colombo will struggle to cast aside its dependence on short-term borrowing.


Significance President Maithripala Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP), which form the National Unity Government (NUG), performed poorly in last month’s local elections, in which former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) -- popular among Sinhalese Buddhist nationalists -- swept to victory. Sri Lanka’s next presidential and parliamentary elections are due in 2020. Impacts Tourism and foreign direct investment are likely to be adversely impacted by frequent communal clashes. Amid concern over social media’s use to orchestrate violence, Sri Lanka could introduce legislation that curbs free speech. Further violence would increase friction between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe, threatening the NUG’s stability.


Subject Political instability in Sri Lanka. Significance Parliament resumed early last month after being prorogued by President Maithripala Sirisena. Sri Lanka’s National Unity Government (NUG), formed after the 2015 legislative elections, is a coalition between Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP). Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) leads the Joint Opposition (JO). According to the constitution, a two-thirds parliamentary majority would be required for Sirisena to bring forward the next legislative elections due in 2020. Impacts The breakdown in party discipline in parliament suggests instability will be a long-term feature of Sri Lankan politics. Judicial campaigns against the Rajapaksa family will intensify, despite its sustained political influence. Political uncertainty will cause the Sri Lankan rupee to fall further against the dollar.


Significance The front runners are Gotabaya Rajapaksa, from the opposition Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), and Sajith Premadasa, from Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's United National Party (UNP). The next elections to parliament, where no party or alliance currently has a majority, are due by end-2020. Impacts As president, Rajapaksa would be better able than Premadasa to negotiate the uncertain period between presidential and parliamentary polls. Delhi and Beijing will quickly congratulate the victor, eager to demonstrate a wish for strong ties with the new administration. Recent arrests in Malaysia of suspected sympathisers of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam will raise some security concerns in Sri Lanka.


Subject Sri Lanka's ambitions for its tourist industry. Significance Sri Lanka is aiming to attract 3 million tourists this year. The sector was, surprisingly, not much affected by the country’s constitutional crisis last October-December. However, Chinese tourist numbers dipped in 2018 for the second consecutive year. Impacts Sri Lanka will likely open the tourism industry to labour from the rest of South Asia and possibly further afield. There will be fewer tourists visiting the north and east compared to the south and west. The country’s poor international credit ratings will make fresh borrowing even more expensive.


Subject Sri Lanka's upcoming presidential election. Significance Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has in the last week held talks with various stakeholders as his United National Party (UNP) delays naming a candidate to contest the presidential election, due between November 9 and December 9. President Maithripala Sirisena, who leads the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), has previously expressed an interest in seeking a second term. The opposition Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), effectively an SLFP offshoot, last month nominated Gotabaya Rajapaksa as its candidate. Impacts There will likely be outbreaks of violence ahead of the election, with minority communities feeling especially vulnerable. Local businesses may be set back by limited productivity and demand during campaigning. Multilateral institutions and countries such as China and India will delay discussing new projects in Sri Lanka until the poll is over.


Significance The report comes as Prime Minister Scott Morrison lobbies his National Party partners in the governing coalition to back a target of net zero emissions by 2050 prior to next month’s COP26 climate conference in Glasgow. Impacts Much-needed investment in the renewables sector may not materialise without a more positive government approach to the sector. Australian businesses may face trade sanctions as a result of the government’s failure to adopt binding emission targets. Public subsidies for investment in coal and gas could lead to higher power bills for consumers.


1917 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-60
Author(s):  
John Casper Branner

Summary The area over which the shock was felt by persons at rest was 27,000 square miles or more, extending from Fresno on the north to San Diego on the south, and from Mojave to the coast. The epicenter seems to have been near the summit of the Tejon Pass, where the intensity reached VII or a little more, of the Rossi-Forel scale. At many places the shock was preceded by a pronounced roar like thunder or a high wind. Wherever the direction of the sound was noted it appeared to come from the epicentral area. The region is too thinly populated and our data are too meager to enable us to outline the area of high intensity with confidence, but the following facts seem to be fairly well established: The shock or shocks were produced by movement on the fault line that passes through the Tejon Pass and follows thence east-southeast along the axes of Leonas Valley and Anaverde Valley and northwestward through Cuddy Canyon and Cuddy Valley. The topographic evidence of the fault in the Tejon Pass is very pronounced, but there is topographic evidence of another fault that branches off from the Tejon Pass fault about a mile and a half northwest of Tejon Pass and runs east-northeast from the northwest corner of Los Angeles county, passing along the north side of Castac Lake. The depression occupied by Castac Lake seems to have been formed by a downthrow on the south side of this fault. It has been supposed that the fault through Tejon Pass was a southward prolongation of the San Andreas fault near San Francisco. The identity of these faults is far from being evident. The topography, the distribution of earthquake shocks, and the method of fracture along the fault zones all suggest a series of overlapping faults rather than one continuous fault. Mr. Hamlin says on this subject: “This fault is not a long continuous fracture, but rather a fault zone with numerous branches. Dropped blocks are not uncommon along this zone, some being a mile or more wide and twice as long.” The forms of the isoseismals of this particular earthquake, however, suggest definite relations to this fault zone.


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