Dubai’s African expansion carries major risks

Significance DP World, the leading state-owned port operator and logistics company of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), is aggressively expanding its foothold across Africa. As DP World continues to scale its African operations, it seeks to plug into the continent’s long-term growth trajectory and create synergies with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, with Middle East tensions deepening, DP World also faces growing political risks to its investments. Impacts DP World is in a good position to profit in particular around the Horn of Africa, in light of the Ethiopia-Eritrea peace deal. Its strategy could stimulate long-term development along the Berbera Corridor, Dakar-Bamako axis and Kigali-Mombasa-Dar-es-Salaam axis. DP World’s growing presence in many African countries is likely to go hand in hand with greater UAE political and cultural influence. Investments will largely serve the interests of African governments, with most economic gains likely to be captured by a narrow elite. Growing competition between Middle Eastern and global rivals could increase existing domestic tensions and competition across Africa.

Significance After initial support by US President Donald Trump for the measures launched by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt on June 5 against Qatar, Washington has shifted towards a push for dialogue. However, it has little leverage. The boycotting states maintain their list of 13 demands on Qatar, which include the closure of satellite network Al Jazeera, a key instrument of Qatar’s ‘independent’ foreign policy since 1996, as well as other media outlets. Impacts There is no chance Doha would close down Al Jazeera without regime change, given how humiliating that would be for the ruling family. The diplomatic focus will be almost entirely on Al Jazeera Arabic, with little interest in the English-language editorial line. Efforts to ban or exclude Al Jazeera from various Middle Eastern and African countries may gather pace, but with limited success.


2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (10) ◽  
pp. 1117-1136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naima Lassoued ◽  
Mouna Ben Rejeb Attia ◽  
Houda Sassi

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether ownership structure affects earnings management in the banking industry of emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach The empirical study is conducted using a sample of 134 banks from 12 Middle Eastern and North African countries. Econometrically speaking, the study used a panel data regression analysis. Findings The authors found convincing evidence that banks with more concentrated ownership use discretionary loan loss provisions to manage their earnings. The authors also found that state and institutional owners encourage earnings management, while family owners reduce this practice. Practical implications The findings would be valuable for investors since they should take into account ownership structure in order to reach a better investment decision. Moreover, regulatory reforms in emerging markets should push for more transparency about ownership structure, high levels of supervision, and external audit quality. Originality/value This study presents international evidence on the prominent role of owners in earnings management in emerging markets with weak shareholder rights protection.


Headline UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Economic ambitions are serious


2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjay Tolani ◽  
Ananth Rao ◽  
Genanew B. Worku ◽  
Mohamed Osman

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze significant determinants to assess the probability of insureds’ intent to buy (ITB) insurance and willingness to pay (WTP) quantum of dollars for security benefits. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the Double Hurdle Model (DHM) and Neural Network (NN) architecture to analyze the insureds’ behavior for ITB and WTP. The authors apply these frameworks to all the 503 insureds of a branch of a leading insurer in the United Arab Emirates. Findings The DHM identified age, loans & liabilities, body mass index, travel outside the UAE, salary and country of origin (Middle Eastern and African) as significant determinants to predict WTP for social security benefits. In addition to these determinants, NN architecture identified insurance replacement, holding multiple citizenship, age of parents, mortgages, country of origin: Americas, length of travel, income of previous year and medical conditions of insured as additional important determinants to predict WTP for social security benefits; thus, NN is found to be superior to DHM due to its lowest RMSE and AIC in the holdout sample and also its flexibility and no assumptions unlike econometric models. Research limitations/implications Insureds’ data used from one UAE Branch limit the generalizability of empirical findings. Practical implications The study findings will enable the insurers to appropriately design the insurance products that match the insurers’ behavior of ITB and WTP for social security benefits. Social implications The study findings have the potential for insurance institutions to be more flexible in their insurance practices through public–private partnerships. Originality/value This is the authors’ original research work.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fauzia Jabeen ◽  
Maryam Al Hashmi ◽  
Vinita Mishra

Purpose This study aims to explore the antecedents that may lead to turnover intentions among police personnel in the United Arab Emirates. Design/methodology/approach The data were collected from police personnel (n = 176) through a questionnaire survey, and structural equation modeling was used to test the relationships. Findings The findings revealed that the work-family conflict and job autonomy significantly correlate with turnover intentions. Alternatively, perceived organizational support does not predict turnover intentions. Research limitations/implications This research is limited by the study’s subjective assessment of police personnel turnover intentions through self-reported questionnaires. It provides implications for policymakers, organizational behavioral experts and those interested in formulating effective strategies to reduce turnover among police personnel. Originality/value This study offers a novel context as it assesses police personnel in an emerging Middle Eastern country. It provides insights to policymakers and academia concerning the factors strongly linked with police personnel turnover intentions and will help them formulate strategies for improving personnel satisfaction and advancing relationships between police and the community.


Significance The bombing represents the latest setback to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)'s efforts to stabilise southern Yemen and reinstall the government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. ISG is just one of a number of sub-state actors that have been empowered by the conflict and that will seek to challenge central government authority. Impacts Insecurity in Aden will deal a blow to the legitimacy of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. A major setback in the south will reflect badly on the reputation of Saudi Defence Minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Reconstruction efforts in southern Yemen will place increased long-term strain on the Saudi budget in particular. Southern Yemen could emerge as a key battleground in the rivalry between al-Qaida and ISG for leadership of the global jihad.


Significance This falls just short of a 'famine' warning -- which would require 20% of households to face catastrophe levels, as well as heightened malnutrition and mortality rates. The UN has warned of famine risks in four countries -- including two in the Horn of Africa. Immediate risks -- such as famine -- tend to absorb most aid funds, including those aimed at building resilience that would reduce humanitarian needs in the long term. Impacts If rains fail in the second half of this year, food security pressures could spiral. If famine prevention fails despite high-profile fundraising, aid agencies may face donor fatigue when seeking new funds for famine response. Differences in institutional approaches will complicate efforts to link humanitarian, development and peacebuilding activities.


Author(s):  
Zhang Chun

The Horn of Africa (HoA) is on the threshold of a long-term transformation as the result of a confluence of political, economic, and social changes, namely, generational political leadership turnover as a reflection of the rise of a younger population; a palpable shift in governance approach from a “security-first” model to a “development-centered” one; and the return of geopolitics across the Red Sea, following global and regional political realignments. To steer the transformation in a sustainable and peaceful direction, the HoA has to enlist the assistance of external actors both as a source of trade and investment and as guarantors of regional peace and stability. This region-wide transformation presents challenges and opportunities for the implementation of the Chinese-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing should better align the economic connectivity-focused BRI with the development-centered approach of regional states, build national and regional capacity for HoA security governance, and join local and external actors in a multilateral effort to ensure a peaceful, secure, and economically dynamic HoA.


Subject Population movement trends in the Horn of Africa. Significance The Horn of Africa has for decades been affected by high levels of population displacement caused by conflict, poverty and repressive governments. However, the current focus on those attempting informal passage to Europe, of whom Eritreans are the second-largest number after Syrians, overlooks that more than 50% of regional people that migrate do so within the Horn itself. The contemporary debate also overlooks the fact that mobility in the Horn has long been central to regional economies. Impacts With the continent's focus on mega infrastructure projects, including dams, the number of IDPs can be expected to increase. However, where these projects threaten agro-pastoralist livelihoods, long-term forms of seasonal migration could decrease. Skilled migrants will remain the main source of emigration to developed-world destinations, hurting developmental progress.


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