Policy gaps to persist on regional migration in Horn

Subject Population movement trends in the Horn of Africa. Significance The Horn of Africa has for decades been affected by high levels of population displacement caused by conflict, poverty and repressive governments. However, the current focus on those attempting informal passage to Europe, of whom Eritreans are the second-largest number after Syrians, overlooks that more than 50% of regional people that migrate do so within the Horn itself. The contemporary debate also overlooks the fact that mobility in the Horn has long been central to regional economies. Impacts With the continent's focus on mega infrastructure projects, including dams, the number of IDPs can be expected to increase. However, where these projects threaten agro-pastoralist livelihoods, long-term forms of seasonal migration could decrease. Skilled migrants will remain the main source of emigration to developed-world destinations, hurting developmental progress.

Significance This falls just short of a 'famine' warning -- which would require 20% of households to face catastrophe levels, as well as heightened malnutrition and mortality rates. The UN has warned of famine risks in four countries -- including two in the Horn of Africa. Immediate risks -- such as famine -- tend to absorb most aid funds, including those aimed at building resilience that would reduce humanitarian needs in the long term. Impacts If rains fail in the second half of this year, food security pressures could spiral. If famine prevention fails despite high-profile fundraising, aid agencies may face donor fatigue when seeking new funds for famine response. Differences in institutional approaches will complicate efforts to link humanitarian, development and peacebuilding activities.


Subject Implications of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen for relation in the Horn of Africa. Significance The intervention of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen threatens to re-order strategic relationships between concerned Arab states and the Horn of Africa. The largest indication of this shift is the Red Sea security agreement between Eritrea and Saudi Arabia on April 30. The agreement has rankled Ethiopia and its regional allies, who are keen to 'contain' Eritrea and prevent its bid to emerge from international isolation. Given the range of other interests that Ethiopia shares with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Yemen, it is unlikely that a significant rupture will occur. However, the impact of these tensions could be significant, as Ethiopia will remain committed to thwarting closer relations between Asmara and Arab states. Impacts Riyadh's outreach to allies is a tactic for success in its Yemen campaign and may not necessarily indicate long-term strategic shifts. Such new relationships will be highly contingent on developments in Yemen. However, Saudi Arabia will not halt the campaign until a decisive victory against the Huthi rebels and forces loyal to the former president.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Creel

PurposeThe study aims to establish that religiosity has a positive link with government trust, making the secularization trend all the more likely to further erode this already fragile resource.Design/methodology/approachThrough the use of data from the World Values Survey and European Social Survey the link between religiosity and trust in government is examined.FindingsReligiosity and trust in government are positively linked in aggregate data.Research limitations/implicationsThe analysis is based on aggregated data, not individual countries, and religiosity is a complex concept to measure.Practical implicationsSecularization will have a long-term negative effect on government trust. Low levels of trust in government in the West are likely here to stay, or even worsen, as populations continue to secularize.Social implicationsWith less trust in government, it will be more difficult to govern effectively.Originality/valueThe author has not yet seen a full test on how secularization will impact trust in government. In fact, this study makes clear that the trend goes a long way explaining why trust in government has been falling in the developed world for decades.


Significance The move risks further exacerbating poor relations with Somalia. The UAE has a long-term commercial interest in the Somaliland port of Berbera, previously planned to include military facilities. However, the nature of Emirati engagement in the Horn of Africa is changing, as also reflected in the partial dismantling of the military base at Assab in Eritrea. Impacts The success of the UAE’s vaccination programme opens space for the export of vaccines to regional states to enhance its soft power. Emirati assets in the region may prove vulnerable to attacks by groups opposed to the UAE’s campaign against political Islam. In the post-Trump era, coercion of other regional countries to join the ‘Abraham Accords’ with Israel will be deprioritised.


Significance Yet relatively few parliaments have been fully able to do so. Countries with low levels of parliamentary scrutiny are much more likely to have implemented limited responses to COVID-19, with fewer social distancing restrictions and financial assistance programmes put in place. Impacts Countries with lower scrutiny face a greater risk of corruption in the management of COVID-19 equipment and resources. Lack of provision for marginalised communities during the pandemic will deepen their long-term structural disadvantages. Post-pandemic, weaker parliaments will struggle to roll back emergency powers assumed by government to fight the current crisis.


foresight ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 35-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Soojung‐Kim Pang

PurposeFuturists have tended to take little interest in the hard work of implementing changes necessary to reach particular futures. This paper aims to argue that the field should pay more attention to these issues, and to use the challenge of weight loss to illustrate how tools can be developed to help both individuals and organizations deal with futures. It also aims to argue for the importance of mindfulness in managing long‐term futures challenges.Design/methodology/approachThe paper describes how the author applied concepts outlined in Futures 2.0 to his own program of weight loss, and lost 50 pounds (22.7 kilograms).FindingsThe paper shows how futurists could use concepts from behavioral economics and design in personal futures and futures work more generally. It also suggests that mindfulness – a concept borrowed from Buddhism and other contemplative practices – can give perspective necessary see the long‐term consequences of decisions they face in the present, and the self‐discipline necessary to make good choices.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper argues that futurists should not just focus on helping clients see unexpected trends or wild cards, or thinking about the future in new ways, or reframing their underlying strategic assumptions. Complex, intractable futures subvert the best efforts of rational actors; clients are most interested in getting help on the problems they are least likely to solve.Practical implicationsMore value for clients can be delivered by helping them understand common roadblocks and designing the means to reach long‐term future goals.Social implicationsFor a profession accustomed to thinking about big issues and megatrends like nanotechnology and global warming, losing weight may seem trivial and beneath its interest. But by any objective measure, in much of the developed world obesity is a substantial public health problem: it affects the lives of tens of millions of people, increases chronic diseases like hypertension and diabetes, and costs governments hundreds of billions of dollars. More generally, weight loss is a microcosm of the kinds of problems that can only be managed through the collective action of large numbers of people.Originality/valueThe paper is a contribution to the literature on personal futures, and to the ongoing discussion of the scope and methods of futures.


2003 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 2-2
Author(s):  
David H. Skuse

Trauma can have both acute and insidious effects upon children's mental health. We present four articles, each of which offers a new perspective on this important topic. As Daniel Pine points out, in the first paper, as many as one in five children in the developed world can expect to experience a truly traumatic event, while half those in developing countries may do so. Such experiences can be either personal – such as emotional or sexual abuse – or impersonal – being shot or blown up in a conflict of which one understands little, except the misery it brings. How do children cope? We know that there are at least two important influences that moderate the impact of trauma on the developing child: the persistence and severity of the experience, and the degree of social support available. Beyond these broad generalisations, little is understood about what should be done or what could be done to minimise the long-term consequences of growing up in an environment characterised by cruelty, exploitation and death.


Significance In responding to COVID-19, the Fed, working with the Treasury, is making massive fiscal interventions. Congress has also appropriated 3 trillion dollars in aid so far. Impacts The HEROES Act will not pass the Senate either in its current form, or before June 2020, given debt concerns. President Donald Trump has suggested the Fed introduce negative interest rates, but it is unlikely to do so. The debt overhang from Fed balance sheet expansion will shape monetary policy for a decade.


Significance DP World, the leading state-owned port operator and logistics company of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), is aggressively expanding its foothold across Africa. As DP World continues to scale its African operations, it seeks to plug into the continent’s long-term growth trajectory and create synergies with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, with Middle East tensions deepening, DP World also faces growing political risks to its investments. Impacts DP World is in a good position to profit in particular around the Horn of Africa, in light of the Ethiopia-Eritrea peace deal. Its strategy could stimulate long-term development along the Berbera Corridor, Dakar-Bamako axis and Kigali-Mombasa-Dar-es-Salaam axis. DP World’s growing presence in many African countries is likely to go hand in hand with greater UAE political and cultural influence. Investments will largely serve the interests of African governments, with most economic gains likely to be captured by a narrow elite. Growing competition between Middle Eastern and global rivals could increase existing domestic tensions and competition across Africa.


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