Madagascar's presidential poll may not end instability

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Elected Officials ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Donor Support ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Additional Support ◽  
Governance Reforms

Significance Rajoelina was installed as president following a military coup that toppled Ravalomanana in 2009. Following four years of protracted negotiations and pressure from international mediators, neither individual was allowed to contest the 2013 election. Given the longstanding rivalry between the two, there are fears over post-poll insecurity. Impacts A protracted dispute over the election results could undermine solid economic growth prospects (5.4% for 2019). The runoff’s outcome will set the tone for the conduct of the scheduled legislative elections in April and municipal polls in August. Failure to pursue key governance reforms, such as tackling corruption or curbing subsidies, could jeopardise donor support. Hery's backing for Ravalomanana in the runoff would give the latter important additional support from a network of elected officials.

Burkina junta face battle consolidating takeover

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Old Regime ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constitutional Order ◽  
Donor Support ◽  
The Military

Significance The military coup, which began on September 16, has dealt a major blow towards restoring constitutional order. The 'soft coup' ousting last year of former President Blaise Compaore was on the back of a popular insurrection. This new coup represents a grab for power by old regime members. Presidential and legislative elections due on October 11 are unlikely to take place as scheduled. Impacts Prolonged unrest in Burkina will jeopardise the ability of France and the United States to use the country as a counterterrorism base. Compaore's possible role in the coup, from his current base in Ivory Coast, could embarrass the Ivorian president's own re-election bid. If the crisis persists, Burkina's steady economic performance will be imperilled from suspensions in donor support.

Sirisena win spells change and challenge for Sri Lanka

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Potential Game ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Game Changer

Significance Sirisena's victory is a potential game-changer: instead of entrenching the autocratic tendencies of his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa's administration, the election results hold out the promise of democratic consolidation under a new government with a robust mandate for constitutional and policy reform. However, the diversity of the coalition backing Sirisena and the sharing of power with newly appointed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe augur a period of volatility. Impacts If Tamil parties emerge as 'kingmakers' in April, governance of war-torn Northern and Western provinces is likely to be overhauled. Delhi, Washington and Brussels will welcome the political transition. Long-term growth prospects will turn on the precise rebalancing of budgetary allocations.

Political uncertainty will deter investment in Fiji

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Populations ◽  
Regional Demand ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Fiji. Significance Fiji has returned to political stability and a degree of international legitimacy in recent years, albeit in a context of poor to moderate economic growth. GDP growth of 4.0 % is forecast for 2015, but the outlook for Fiji's main industries (tourism, gold and services) remains stagnant as aggregate regional demand for resources slumps and Fiji's comparative advantage as a regional services hub erodes. Impacts The government will actively promote FDI to boost Fiji's lacklustre economic growth prospects. The government will promote agriculture and fisheries to provide opportunities for disadvantaged rural and ethnic populations. Foreign investment in tourism will probably increase slowly as demand from Asian countries grows. Fiji's dominance in the South Pacific economy will likely diminish as advances in ICT allow it to be bypassed. Ways must be found to prevent loss of trained and educated personnel if Fiji is to maintain its central role.

Thailand’s junta will face new governing pressures

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Biometric Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
The Government

Significance This is an early move back towards elected politics following the mid-2014 military coup, and comes as recent corruption allegations, the possibility of a fifth cabinet reshuffle and concerns about the outlook for Thailand’s labour market are raising new questions about the NCPO government’s competence. This also comes as Thailand looks to a general election by November 2018 for which the NCPO may form a political party. Impacts Inadequacies in collecting biometric data for fisheries workers could draw renewed EU scrutiny and criticism. A cabinet reshuffle will not slow Thailand’s recent gains in economic growth. Media self-censorship means corruption allegations will likely not have a great negative impact on the government. Investor confidence is unlikely to be affected by corruption allegations in the short term.

Bank caution will make Russian firms draw on own funds

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Mergers And Acquisitions ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Fixed Asset ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
Investment Rates ◽  
Growth Prospects

Subject Financing sources for Russian companies. Significance Low investment rates in the last three years have led to substantial fixed asset deterioration. Russian companies are trying to make better use of existing assets instead of renewing productive capacity, and the main source of investment is their own funds. Impacts As EU and US sanctions persist, Russia will strive to boost domestic capital markets. Prolonged low investment will restrict economic growth prospects for the medium-to-long term. Insufficient investment will limit productivity and undermine product competitiveness. Signs of economic recovery may boost mergers and acquisitions.

China may yet revive Western economies

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The World ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Stimulus Package

Subject China's economic growth prospects. Significance After the 2008 global financial crisis, China's resilience thanks to Beijing's large and rapid stimulus package was credited with making China the engine of growth for the world economy. Today, China is seen as the opposite, with diverse economic ills across the world routinely blamed on China's slowdown. Impacts Investment in heavy industry will not rebound, but there is still ample scope for investment in construction related to urbanisation. Consumption will make the largest contribution to economic growth. The rate of capital accumulation will remain high for some years, boosting labour productivity further. With wages still rising, inflation in China will pick up once commodity prices stop falling. Inflation in China will feed into inflation in the West, while a more affluent China demands more goods and services.

New Gambian president will re-engage the West

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
The Military

Significance If Barrow is inaugurated, it will mark the first peaceful transfer of power since the country gained independence. Incumbent Yahya Jammeh, who seized power in a 1994 military coup, was widely expected to claim victory, despite widespread frustration. With the economy stagnant and the unemployment rate among the highest in West Africa, Barrow successfully united much of the political opposition. Jammeh's concession was unexpected given the repression that his security services employed prior to the election. Impacts A new administration will look to draw prominent figures from across The Gambia's ethnic groups. Security will remain taut ahead of the upcoming inauguration and legislative elections scheduled for April. The new government could renew its commitment to the International Criminal Court (ICC). There could be widespread calls for the prosecution of Jammeh, which may provoke unrest within the military and new coup fears.

South African parastatal reforms may underwhelm

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South African ◽  
Power Supply ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Senior Executives ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Growth Prospects

Significance More bailouts for Eskom and other cash-strapped SOEs come amid an ongoing exodus of senior executives. This has raised renewed questions about the willingness and ability of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration to implement the bold reforms needed to make SOEs financially and operationally sustainable. Impacts The increasingly politically charged nature of SOE leadership will make recruitment of competent officials and directors more difficult. New SOE bailouts may require further tax hikes and put pressure on the electricity regulator for even higher electricity price increases. Concerns about power supply will continue to weigh on investment and already subdued economic growth prospects.

Election losses may imperil Malian president's agenda

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Election Results ◽  
First Time

Subject Mali election results. Significance In two rounds on March 29 and April 19, Mali held legislative elections for the first time since 2013. Official results show that President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita’s Rally for Mali (RPM) party won the largest number of seats in the 147-member parliament, with 51 deputies, down from 70, amid low turnout. Protests erupted in some cities against the final results, while authorities faced substantial criticism for moving ahead with elections even as COVID-19 cases swelled, and after the kidnapping of opposition leader Soumaila Cisse shortly before the elections. Impacts The results of the legislative elections do not inherently disrupt Keïta’s wider plans. The crystallisation of a broadly popular opposition party appears more remote than ever. The role of the elite in Kidal and Menaka as intermediaries in talks between the presidency and northern ex-rebel blocs is strengthened.

Jordan will struggle to attract investors and more aid

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Tax Collection ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Donor Support ◽  
Return Home ◽  
To Receive

Significance However, Jordan continues to receive ongoing donor support and is beginning to make progress on some structural weaknesses, such as energy imports and poor tax collection, while investing in growth initiatives. Impacts Iraq and Syria both stand to benefit from increased trade with Jordan. If progress is made on economic growth in Jordan this would be a further disincentive for Syrian refugees to return home. Jordan’s political and economic stability will likely be a factor in any efforts to forge an Israel-Palestine peace deal.

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