Thailand’s junta will face new governing pressures

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Biometric Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
The Government

Significance This is an early move back towards elected politics following the mid-2014 military coup, and comes as recent corruption allegations, the possibility of a fifth cabinet reshuffle and concerns about the outlook for Thailand’s labour market are raising new questions about the NCPO government’s competence. This also comes as Thailand looks to a general election by November 2018 for which the NCPO may form a political party. Impacts Inadequacies in collecting biometric data for fisheries workers could draw renewed EU scrutiny and criticism. A cabinet reshuffle will not slow Thailand’s recent gains in economic growth. Media self-censorship means corruption allegations will likely not have a great negative impact on the government. Investor confidence is unlikely to be affected by corruption allegations in the short term.

Nigeria's hefty budget will not dispel investor unease

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
State Government ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Tax Compliance ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Short Term ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Final Text

Subject Outlook for Nigeria's 2016 state budget. Significance The Senate this week will forward President Muhammadu Buhari the revised 2016 state budget, which it passed on March 23. Buhari says that he will assess it "ministry by ministry" before signing it into law to ensure that there are no irregularities in the final text. The 6.06-trillion-naira (30.6-billion-dollar) spending plan is 17 billion naira lower than the initial budget proposed by the government in December 2015. Impacts Buhari is unlikely to consider raising the value added tax given its effect on living costs, which would hurt the APC electorally. The central bank will likely keep currency restrictions in place, at least in the short term, despite their negative impact on firms. The tax compliance drive will be most effective in Lagos, due to heavy investment in collection capacity by the state government.

New Ivorian government will struggle to stem unrest

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Popular Front ◽  
Hospital Workers ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
New Public ◽  
The Government

Significance The strike included teachers and hospital workers and was just the latest public unrest faced by the Ivory Coast government since the turn of the year. President Alassane Ouattara’s administration has also confronted two army mutinies and subsequent nationwide protests by citizens, including schoolchildren. Impacts The government will attempt to negotiate a new public-sector wage deal later this month, but grievances will persist. Investor confidence is unlikely to be significantly hampered in the short term, unless cocoa exporters face further shipping delays. The ability of the opposition Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) to capitalise is limited following poor legislative results in 2016.

Sousse attack risks authoritarian return in Tunisia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Religious Associations ◽  
The Government

Significance The administration also deployed more police to tourist resorts and promised to close Salafi mosques and to curb some religious associations. At least one religious political party may be closed, but there are concerns about a return to authoritarian policies. Impacts There will be damage to the wider economy, well beyond the already troubled tourism sector. The government will try to limit radicalisation with authoritarian-style policies, but this is unlikely to work in the short term. Popular mistrust of the government, already significant, will grow.

Supervision change could politicise banking in Georgia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Asian Development Bank ◽  
Banking Supervision ◽  
Development Bank ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Supervision ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Stability

Significance Tensions between the governing Georgian Dream (GD) coalition, President Giorgi Margvelashvili and Kadagidze have risen rapidly in recent months, sparked by the government's controversial bill on bank supervision. The GD bill would transfer supervision of banks and other financial institutions from the NBG to a new agency. The bill has been criticised by the NBG, the president and multilateral agencies, including the IMF, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Asian Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank. Impacts Members of the government will continue to blame the NBG for the lari's depreciation, in a bid to deflect criticism from themselves. Separating banking supervision from the NBG will lead to concerns over the stability of the financial sector. Investor confidence will be undermined, potentially weighing on foreign investment inflows in the short term.

Lebanon’s belated budget will face political hurdles

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Election Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance The government is struggling to agree a budget that will allow an increase in public-sector salaries, financed by higher taxes and duties. If passed, it would be the first budget to be approved since 2005, marking the end of the country’s lengthy political crisis. In the interim, the government has covered spending by ministries without a formal budget. Impacts If the tax and duty increases were implemented, this could be a drag on economic growth, which might also increase the debt/GDP ratio. Higher taxes on deposits, property and alcohol could have a negative impact on capital inflows and tourism. Failure to approve the budget would suggest similar difficulties in agreeing a new election law before parliamentary polls due in May.

Kazakh government will try to moderate oil reliance

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Declining Demand ◽  
The Government ◽  
Export Revenue ◽  
Poverty Levels ◽  
The Eu

Subject Kazakh economic update. Significance Kazakhstan's economic growth continued in the first half of 2019, driven primarily by stable oil exports and a gradual recovery in domestic demand. The economy ministry is forecasting GDP growth of 3.8% this year, compared with 4.1% in 2018. The national oil fund provides a safety cushion against short-term falls in export revenue, but the government wants to restrict its use of this resource. Impacts Anticipated increases in real disposable incomes this year will help reduce poverty levels. Declining demand from the EU, China or Russia could dampen economic growth. This year's bond issuances are intended to establish a benchmark sovereign yield curve that will help price future corporate issuances. The threat of US secondary sanctions increases the risks to Kazakh entities dealing with Russian investors.

Florida voters react to Biden's Caribbean policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Family Connections ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Government

Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.

Australian central bank holds rate as growth slips

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.

Energy reform will hit investor confidence in Mexico

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
International Trade Agreements ◽  
The Government ◽  
Energy Reform

Significance The government will appeal the rulings, which follow action by renewables firms. With constitutional battles over energy investments already unfolding, the future of Mexico’s energy framework has been thrown into turmoil. Impacts Increasing energy prices will probably push inflation above Banxico’s upper target limit of 4%. AMLO’s apparent disregard for international trade agreements will strain relations with the United States. AMLO’s pro-austerity fiscal stance could take a toll on his popularity.

Indonesia’s new investment ministry faces headwinds

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out

Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document