China may yet revive Western economies

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The World ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Stimulus Package

Subject China's economic growth prospects. Significance After the 2008 global financial crisis, China's resilience thanks to Beijing's large and rapid stimulus package was credited with making China the engine of growth for the world economy. Today, China is seen as the opposite, with diverse economic ills across the world routinely blamed on China's slowdown. Impacts Investment in heavy industry will not rebound, but there is still ample scope for investment in construction related to urbanisation. Consumption will make the largest contribution to economic growth. The rate of capital accumulation will remain high for some years, boosting labour productivity further. With wages still rising, inflation in China will pick up once commodity prices stop falling. Inflation in China will feed into inflation in the West, while a more affluent China demands more goods and services.

scholarly journals Foreword

10.26458/1810 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-21
Author(s):  
Elena GURGU
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Economic Growth ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Senior Director

Shanta Devarajan, who is the Senior Director at the Development Economics – World Bank, said recently, in a forecasting about global economic growth at the beginning of 2018, that currently there is a set of optimistic projections for economic growth around the world. Ten years after the global financial crisis, every economic region – from the U.S. to Europe to Asia, Africa, and Latin America – is seeing an uptick in growth. One reason for the optimism is that economic growth was surprisingly better than anticipated in 2017. Almost every growth forecast at the beginning of the year was revised upward by the end of the year. Global growth, projected by the World Bank to be 2.7 % in January 2017, was estimated at 3 percent in December, with expectation to be at 3.1 percent in 2018. Furthermore, stock markets are booming. And the factors that caused growth to be subdued in the past – a slowdown in investment and trade and low commodity prices – are rebounding. Consequently, developing country growth is forecasted at a robust 4.5 percent in 2018, accelerating to 4.7 percent in the subsequent two years. This growth is not just driven by China, although the country’s economy is projected to grow at a robust 6.4 percent in 2018. Low-income countries’ growth will rise to 5.4 percent in 2018, accelerating to 5.6 percent in 2019-2020, as metal and mineral prices strengthen.

Policy Wounds Leave Behind Scar Tissue, 2011–2013

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashoka Mody
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Scar Tissue ◽  
The United States ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
European Central ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The U.S

This chapter addresses the troubling legacies left by the global financial crisis: rising government debt burdens and slower economic growth prospects. In October 2009, debt burdens were surging at about an equal pace in the United States and in the euro area. However, growth prospects looked better in the U.S. than in the euro area because the U.S. Federal Reserve had proactively stimulated its economy while the European Central Bank (ECB) had kept monetary policy tight. Policymakers faced a dilemma. Solving the debt problem required governments to undertake austerity measures—raise taxes and reduce spending; but austerity would lower the demand for goods and services, which would cause incomes to fall and further set back growth prospects. Hence, some, including the International Monetary Fund's Research Department, believed it was important to jump-start economic growth.

Intensifying effects of COVID-19 on economic growth, logistics performance, environmental sustainability and quality management: evidence from Asian countries

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ikram ◽  
Yichen Shen ◽  
Marcos Ferasso ◽  
Idiano D’Adamo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Quality Management ◽  
Environmental Performance ◽  
Management System ◽  
Quality Management System ◽  
Iso 14001 ◽  
Iso 9001 ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services

Purpose This study aims to explore the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on exports of goods and services, logistics performance, environmental management system (ISO 14001) certification and quality management system (ISO 9001) certification in top affected Asian countries of India, Iran, Indonesia, Philippines, Bangladesh and Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach A novel grey relational analysis models’ approach is used to examine the inter-relationship between COVID-19 economic growth and environmental performance. Moreover, the authors applied a conservative (maximin) model to investigate which countries have the least intensifying affected among all of the top affected COVID-19 Asian countries based on the SS degree of grey relation values. The data used in this study was collected from multiple databases during 2020 for analysis. Findings Results indicate that the severity of COVID-19 shows a strong negative association and influence of COVID-19 on the exportation of goods and services, logistics performance, ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 certifications in all the six highly affected countries during a pandemic outbreak. Although the adverse effects of COVID-19 in exporting countries persisted until December 31, 2020, their magnitude decreased over time in Indonesia and Pakistan. During the COVID-19 outbreak, Pakistan showed comparatively better performance among the six top highly affected Asian countries due to its smart locked down strategy and prevents its economy from severe damages. While India and Iran export drastically go down due to a rapid increase in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Research limitations/implications The research findings produce much-required policy suggestions for leaders, world agencies and governments to take corrective measures on an emergent basis to prevent the economies from more damages and improve their logistics, environmental and quality performance during the pandemic of COVID-19. Originality/value This study develops a framework and investigates the intensifying effects of COVID-19 effects on economic growth, logistics performance, environmental performance and quality production processes.

scholarly journals Changes of China’s agri-food exports to Germany caused by its accession to WTO and the 2008 financial crisis

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhichao Guo ◽  
Yuanhua Feng ◽  
Thomas Gries
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Middle Part ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Before And After

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes of China’s agri-food exports to Germany caused by China’s accession to WTO and the global financial crisis in a quantitative way. The paper aims to detect structural breaks and compare differences before and after the change points. Design/methodology/approach – The structural breaks detection procedures in this paper can be applied to find out two different types of change points, i.e. in the middle and at the end of one time series. Then time series and regression models are used to compare differences of trade relationship before and after the detected change points. The methods can be employed in any economic series and work well in practice. Findings – The results indicate that structural breaks in 2002 and 2009 are caused by China’s accession to WTO and the financial crisis. Time series and regression models show that the development of China’s exports to Germany in agri-food products has different features in different sub-periods. Before 1999, there is no significant relationship between China’s exports to Germany and Germany’s imports from the world. Between 2002 and 2008 the former depends on the latter very strongly, and China’s exports to Germany developed quickly and stably. It decreased, however suddenly in 2009, caused by the great reduction of Germany’s imports from the world in that year. But China’s market share in Germany still had a small gain. Analysis of two categories in agri-food trade also leads to similar conclusions. Comparing the two events we see rather different patterns even if they both indicate structural breaks in the development of China’s agri-food exports to Germany. Originality/value – This paper partly originally proposes two statistical algorithms for detecting different kinds of structural breaks in the middle part and at the end of a short-time series, respectively.

Interactive effects of human capital in finance–economic growth nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 1192-1210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muazu Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Interactive Effect ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Ssa Countries

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the interactive effect of human capital in financial development–economic growth nexus. Relative to the quantity-based measure of enrolment rates, the main aim was to determine how quality of human capital proxied by pupil–teacher ratio influences the relationship between domestic financial sector development and overall economic growth. Design/methodology/approach Data are obtained from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank for 29 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1980–2014. The analyses were conducted using the system generalised method of moments within the endogenous growth framework while controlling for country-specific and time effects. The author also follows Papke and Wooldridge procedure in examining the long-run estimates of the variables of interest. Findings The key finding is that, while both human capital and financial development unconditionally promotes growth in both the short and long run, results from the interactive terms suggest that, irrespective of the measure of finance, financial sector development largely spurs growth on the back of quality human capital. This finding is also confirmed by the marginal and net effects where the interactive effect of pupil–teacher ratio and indicators of finance are consistently huge relative to the enrolment. Statistically, the results are robust to model specification. Practical implications While it is laudable for SSA countries to increase access to education, it is equally more crucial to increase the supply of teachers at the same time improving on the limited teaching and learning materials. Indeed, there are efforts to develop rather low levels of the financial sector owing to its unconditional growth effects. Beyond the direct benefit of finance, however, higher growth effect of finance is conditioned on the quality level of human capital. The outcome of this study should therefore reignite the recognition of the complementarity role of human capital and finance in economic growth process. Originality/value The study makes significant contributions to existing finance–growth literature in so many ways: first, the auhor extend the literature by empirically examining how different measures of human capital shape the finance–economic growth nexus. Through this the author is able to bring a different perspective in the literature highlighting the role of countries’ human capital stock in mediating the impact of financial deepening on economic growth. Second, the author makes a more systematic attempt to evaluate the relative importance of finance and human capital in growth process while controlling for several ancillary variables.

Growth Prospects for Advanced and Emerging Market Economies

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 599-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominick Salvatore
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Emerging Market Economies ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Secular Stagnation ◽  
Market Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Growth Prospects

This paper examines the reasons for the slow growth in the advanced countries since the recent global financial crisis, the slowdown in growth or recession in emerging market economies, the danger that the world may be drifting toward a new global financial crisis, and that it may face even secular stagnation. The paper concludes that growth is likely to remain slow for the rest of this decade in advanced countries and to continue to decline in emerging market economies. It also examines the danger that with interest rates at the zero-bound level in advanced nations, a new financial bubble may be in the making as investors, in search of returns, undertake excessively risky investments, and that this may lead to a new global financial crisis. It is not certain, however, that the world is facing secular stagnation and, if so, that a new massive fiscal stimulus (as advocated but some) would prevent it or correct it.

Challenges for Vietnam in the Globalization Era

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dong Phong Nguyen ◽  
Viet Tien Ho ◽  
Xuan Vinh Vo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Global Value Chain ◽  
Domestic Markets ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The World ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
Emerging And Developing Countries

Abstract Emerging and developing countries around the world are playing an increasingly important role in the global economy. They move up in the global value chain very quickly. However, these countries constantly facing a plethora of challenges covering a wide range of issues. This paper addresses some key challenges confronting Vietnam economy which potentially deteriorate its economic growth prospects. These include economic slowdown, credit booming, the rise of protectionism around the world, and risk from greater opening of the domestic markets. Addressing these challenges are important for Vietnam to maintain its comparative advantage and foundation for economic growth.

How does finance influence labour market outcomes? A review of empirical studies

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 1197-1232
Author(s):  
Mark Heil
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
National Income ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Managers ◽  
Labour Market Outcomes

PurposeThis paper reviews economic studies on the effects of various aspects of finance on labour market outcomes.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is a systematic literature review that reviews the weight of the evidence on the relationships between specific elements of finance and labour outcomes. The review is divided into three major sections: (1) job quantity and job quality; (2) distributional effects; and (3) resilience and adaptability.FindingsFinance interacts with labour market institutions to jointly determine labour outcomes. Firm financial structures influence their labour practices – highly leveraged firms show greater employment volatility during cyclical fluctuations, and leverage strengthens firm bargaining power in labour negotiations. Bank deregulation has mixed impacts on labour depending upon the state of prior bank regulations and labour markets. Leveraged buyouts tend to dampen acquired-firm job growth as they pursue labour productivity gains. The shareholder value movement may contribute to short-termism among corporate managers, which can divert funds away from firm capital accumulation toward financial markets, and crowd out productive investment. Declining wage shares of national income in most OECD countries since 1990 may be driven in part by financial globalisation. The financial sector contributes to rising income concentration near the top of the distribution in developed countries. The availability of finance is associated with increased reallocation of labour, which may either enhance or impede productivity growth. Finally, rising interest rate environments and homeowners with mortgage balances that exceed their home's value may reduce labour mobility rates.Originality/valueThis review contributes to the understanding of the effects of finance on labour by reviewing and synthesising a large volume of literature.

scholarly journals The US dollar and new imperialism under the logic of capital accumulation

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 98-107
Author(s):  
Haiping Qiu ◽  
Min Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
International Monetary System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Usa ◽  
New Imperialism ◽  
Us Dollar

Purpose The world currency is endowed with two inherent contradictions, namely, the general contradiction of all currencies and the special contradiction between the quality and quantity of the world currency. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach In the wake of the Second World War, the USA, with its strong economic and military strength, established an international monetary system centered on the US dollar (USD). This gave USD the status of “world currency” and bounded it to the US imperialist hegemony with mutual integration and interaction, making it possible for USD capital to conduct international exploitation and wealth plundering extensively around the world. Findings The contradiction between the capital logic and the power logic, which is inherent in capital accumulation models of the new imperialism, also indicates the inevitable decline of USD. Originality/value This constitutes an important feature of the new imperialism. However, as a sovereign currency, USD has inextricable and inherent contradictions while exercising its function as the world currency.

Financial development, human capital and its impact on economic growth of emerging countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaqib Sarwar ◽  
Muhammad Asif Khan ◽  
Zahid Sarwar ◽  
Wajid Khan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the critical aspect of financial development, human capital and their interactive term on economic growth from the perspective of emerging economies. Design/methodology/approach Data set ranged from 2002 to 2017 of 83 emerging countries used in this research and collected from world development indicators of the World Bank. The two-step system generalized method of moments is used to conduct this research within the endogenous growth model while controlling time and country-specific effects. Findings The findings of the study indicate that financial development has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. In emerging countries, human capital also has a positive impact on economic growth. Financial development and human capital interactively affect economic growth for emerging economies positively and significantly. Research limitations/implications The data set is limited to 83 emerging countries of the world. The time period for the study is 2002 to 2017. Originality/value This research contributes to the existing literature on human capital, financial development and economic growth. Limited research has been conducted on the impact of financial development and human capital on economic growth.

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