Risks of armed conflict are mounting in Venezuela

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Conflict ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Road ◽  
Rapid Decomposition ◽  
Ongoing Support ◽  
Official Recognition ◽  
The Eu

Significance The political conflict in Venezuela appears to be moving decisively in favour of the opposition, with vocal, official recognition from the United States, Canada, Brazil, the EU and the Organization of American States (OAS) for ‘interim president’ Juan Guaido. However, expectations of rapid decomposition of the Maduro government have proved optimistic, most particularly given the ongoing support for Maduro from the Venezuelan armed forces. Even if the situation unravels quickly and Maduro takes flight, the road ahead remains perilous. Impacts The Venezuelan military is the critical actor; an institutional declaration for Guaido would render Maduro’s position untenable. Amid intense speculation of a US-backed military intervention, Washington has called for a weekend meeting of the UN Security Council. Russia and China have issued statements supportive of Maduro and are expected to block US efforts to convene the Security Council.

Markets are overreacting to US price and rates risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Ongoing Support

Significance The continuation of the modest manufacturing downturn follows the recent report of slower third-quarter GDP growth. Despite slower growth, bond markets are challenging an attempt by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to delink tapering from tightening by bringing forward their forecasts for rate increases: futures markets are pricing in two 25-basis-point rate hikes by end-2022. Impacts Equities are at a record high in the United States; providing ongoing support for this, real US bond yields remain in negative territory. The Brent crude oil price is near its highest since 2014; further upside will be limited but it is likely to stay high well into 2022. Germany’s ten-year bond yield, negative since April 2019, has risen by 40 basis points since end-August and will soon turn positive.

Russia may entrench its influence in CAR

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Security Council ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Sites ◽  
Un Security Council

Significance Russia on June 28 rejected as “lies” similar allegations by the United States, United Kingdom and France at the UN Security Council. The exchanges come against the backdrop of rising diplomatic tensions between Russia and France in CAR. Impacts Touadera’s ongoing offensive against rebel forces threatens to deliver a fatal blow to the peace deal he struck with them in 2019. Expanding Russian control over key mining sites could be a persistent source of frictions absent sophisticated local arrangements. Human rights concerns will deter some African leaders from engaging with Russia, but not all.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

EU may struggle to enforce social standards via trade

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Environmental Standards ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Standards ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
First Time ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
The Eu

Significance In 2020 the European Commission appointed a Chief Trade Enforcement Officer for the first time, signalling that Brussels is intent on enhancing its capacity to enforce standards agreed in trade deals. However, the EU's experience with South Korea suggests that holding trade partners to account over breaching standards will be difficult. Impacts Relations with trade partners could deteriorate if the EU is seen to be aggressive in enforcing its standards. Concern over China’s willingness to improve labour and environmental standards could impede ratification the EU-China investment agreement. The EU may be reluctant to sanction some partners, such as the United States, that breach labour or environmental standards.

China-US deal sets stage for new climate change regime

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Agreement ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Game Changer

Significance The United States has already committed, in an unprecedented deal with China in November 2014, to reducing its emissions to 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025 (an improvement on its previous 17% goal). China in return pledged that its emissions would peak around 2030. This agreement is a game-changer for combating global climate change, since the two countries are the world's largest sources of carbon emissions, together accounting for 40% of the total, and were not covered under the now-expired Kyoto Protocol. Impacts Washington is poised to reclaim its place, lost after Kyoto, as a leader in global efforts against climate change. US-China climate cooperation initiatives could serve as templates for other developing countries. There are new opportunities for trilateral cooperation involving the EU. Fears that the bilateral agreement makes the UNFCCC obsolete are unwarranted, but it could preclude more ambitious efforts.

Global R&D policy will shift toward industrial needs

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
The United States ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
Industrial Needs ◽  
D Investment ◽  
The Eu

Subject Outlook for R&D policies across OECD countries. Significance China has just announced new rules that greatly expand its visa programme for allowing foreign scientists to settle in the country, the People's Daily reported on January 25. Rising research and development (R&D) expenditure in BRICS countries is reducing the lead of OECD economies and deepening the interdependence between regions occupying key niches in global value chains. The 2008 financial crisis has reframed the importance of R&D policies as a means of responding to low productivity growth in OECD economies and for tackling major policy issues with limited funds. The oil price fall will affect green innovation adversely, but could spur further R&D investment in emerging economies dependent on fossil fuel exports. Impacts Advances in vehicle telematics, wearable technology and mobile payment will fuel developments in big data. The United States will invest more in R&D than the EU, as it has stronger foundations in the digital economy. The BRICS economies will see growing importance, as China's gross R&D overtook the EU in 2012.

Investment will strengthen Danish-US defence ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Force ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fourth Generation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fifth Generation ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Northern European ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
Out Of Area ◽  
The Eu

Subject Denmark's defence policy. Significance Denmark's decision to acquire a new fleet of fifth-generation F-35 stealth joint-strike fighter jets to replace its ageing and non-stealthy fourth-generation F-16s ends a long period of uncertainty around the future of the Danish air force. The purchase of the F-35s will also solidify and deepen Denmark's political-military links to the United States and could open the door for increased cooperation with other northern European countries operating F-35s such as the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Norway. Impacts The decision will increase the chances of Finland also selecting the F-35 in its upcoming competition to replace its current fleet of F-18s. Participation in future out-of-area operations may be limited, owing to the need to increase the share of the procurement budget. The deal will help solidify Denmark's orientation towards NATO and Washington and away from defence cooperation under the EU.

European Parliament vote will raise more TTIP doubts

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Deep Integration ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
The Eu

Subject The European Parliament and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. Significance The last-minute decision of the European Parliament (EP) to postpone a June 10 debate and vote on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has exposed important divisions among its members (MEPs) over whether and how closer EU-US economic ties can be secured. While non-binding at this stage, the debate and vote would have provided important guidance to the European Commission on its priorities and room for manoeuvre as it engages in further negotiations with the United States. TTIP must ultimately be ratified by the EP, which has voted down international agreements in the past. Impacts The EP's difficulties in finalising its views could constrain the Commission in the TTIP negotiations. However, given the EP's ultimate veto over the deal, time spent now on hammering out an ISDS formula it could accept may not be wasted. Any rejection of TTIP, particularly over ISDS, could raise questions over future international trade deals premised on deep integration. TTIP rejection could even jeopardise concluded trade deals awaiting ratification, such as that between the EU and Canada. Progress on TTIP is among the measures sought by UK Prime Minister David Cameron before his EU membership referendum.

ECJ ruling further dims EU-US data protection outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Data Storage ◽  
Data Protection ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
Data Flows ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
The Eu

Significance The ECJ ruling could add to potential disruptions to transatlantic commercial data flows arising from the EU's developing data protection regime that a study for the US Chamber of Commerce valued at 0.8-1.3% of EU GDP. The ruling weakens the United States in negotiations over the new EU regime, as well as over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Impacts The ruling may bolster development of EU-based cloud facilities as EU users seek to avoid the risks of US-based data storage. This could reduce US firms' estimated 76% share of the EU cloud market. It would also lead to further fragmentation of the internet as a global resource.

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