Oil sanctions will not bring rapid change in Venezuela

Significance President Nicolas Maduro’s beleaguered government will seek to sidestep sanctions on the Venezuelan oil sector announced by the United States on January 28. Some technical aspects of the sanctions remain unclear, but the move will most immediately impact Caracas’s access to dollars and bilateral energy supplies. Impacts The US squeeze on the Venezuelan economy risks exacerbating social crisis and migratory outflows. Russia and China will continue to align with Maduro. The impact on international oil markets will be modest given already collapsed Venezuelan output.

Subject The impact of the US-China trade wars on US manufacturers. Significance The United States and China reached a tentative agreement in trade negotiations on October 11 that President Donald Trump described as "a substantial phase one deal". The deal, which is yet to be finalised, centres on China's agreement to purchase some 40-50 billion dollars' worth of additional US agricultural goods annually, and Trump's agreement to suspend a planned increase in tariffs on 250 billion dollars' worth of Chinese goods, from 25% to 30%, that was due to take effect tomorrow. However, existing tariffs on both sides remain in place. Impacts A manufacturing recession could lead to greater upper Midwest voters’ discontent. Midwestern voter discontent could help a Democrat win the presidency in 2020, and a populist win the party’s nomination. US-based manufacturers could benefit from new contracts as supply lines are revised, but costs would rise. A second Trump tax cut in 2020 could temporarily help US-based firms avoid competitiveness gaps.


Significance While there is moderate optimism among European, Latin American and Caribbean countries about a negotiated solution to Venezuela’s crisis, the United States remains sceptical. The US position strengthens more hawkish but domestically unpopular elements in the opposition that support a military intervention to remove President Nicolas Maduro. Impacts Progressing dialogue will put pressure on Guaido, whose appeasement of both pro- and anti-negotiation factions is unsustainable. Growing concern as to the impact of US sanctions on the humanitarian situation will intensify efforts to resolve the impasse. Amid a worsening humanitarian crisis, it will become morally and politically difficult to hold out for Maduro’s departure.


Author(s):  
Aref Emamian

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States


Significance Follow-on action from Washington and responses from foreign actors will shape the US government’s adversarial policy towards China in semiconductors and other strategic technologies. Impacts The Biden administration will likely conclude that broad-based diversion of the semiconductor supply chain away from China is not feasible. The United States will rely on export controls and political pressure to prevent diffusion to China of cutting-edge chip technologies. The United States will focus on persuading foreign semiconductor leaders to help develop US capabilities, thereby staying ahead of China. Washington will focus on less direct approaches to strategic technology competition with China, notably technical standards-setting. Industry leaders in the semiconductor supply chain worldwide will continue expanding business in China in less politically sensitive areas.


Significance The growing numbers of senior citizens in the United States, their rapidly increasing adoption of social media and their high levels of voter turnout make their vulnerability to disinformation a matter of special concern. Other advanced democracies likely mirror the US experience. Impacts Older US adults' use of television as their primary news source may provide some bulwark against being targeted by disinformation online. The rapid evolution of news distribution technologies will challenge older adults used to a more slowly changing media landscape. Further research is necessary to determine the causes of age-based vulnerability and levels of resilience.


2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Nir Gazit ◽  

The murder of George Floyd by a police officer in the United States in May 2020 and the subsequent turmoil, as well as the violence against migrants on the US-Mexican border, have drawn major public and media attention to the phenomenon of police brutality (see, e.g., Levin 2020; Misra 2018; Taub 2020), which is often labeled as ‘militarization of police’. At the same time, in recent years military forces have been increasingly involved in policing missions in civilian environments, both domestically (see, e.g., Kanno-Youngs 2020; Schrader 2020; Shinkman 2020) and abroad. The convergence of military conduct and policing raises intriguing questions regarding the impact of these tendencies on the military and the police, as well as on their legitimacy.


Author(s):  
Earl H. Fry

This article examines the ebb and flow of the Quebec government’s economic and commercial relations with the United States in the period 1994–2017. The topic demonstrates the impact of three major forces on Quebec’s economic and commercial ties with the US: (1) the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which became operational in 1994 and was fully implemented over a 15-year period; (2) the onerous security policies put in place by the US government in the decade following the horrific events of 11 September 2001; and (3) changing economic circumstances in the United States ranging from robust growth to the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The article also indicates that the Quebec government continues to sponsor a wide range of activities in the United States, often more elaborate and extensive than comparable activities pursued by many nation-states with representation in the US. 1 1 Stéphane Paquin, ‘Quebec-U.S. Relations: The Big Picture’, American Review of Canadian Studies 46, no. 2 (2016): 149–61.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Shah Azami

As part of its “War on Terror”, the United States (US) provided immense sums of money and advanced equipment to Afghan warlords in order to defeat and dismantle the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Nearly two decades after the 2001 US-led intervention in Afghanistan that toppled the Taliban regime, the US continues supporting the warlords in various ways. As the intervention was also aimed at establishing a functioning state and reconstruction of the war-torn country, the US needed the support of local warlords to achieve its goals. However, over time, warlords and warlordism became a major challenge to the postTaliban state-building project and in many ways undermined the overall security and the state monopoly on violence. These warlords, who had been mostly expelled and defeated by the Taliban regime, returned under the aegis of the B52 bombers, recaptured parts of the country and reestablished their fiefdoms with US support and resources. They not only resist giving up the power and prestige they have accumulated over the past few years, but also hamper the effort to improve governance and enact necessary reforms in the country. In addition, many of them run their private militias and have been accused of serious human rights abuses as well as drug trafficking, arms smuggling, illegal mining and extortion in the areas under their control or influence. In many ways, they challenge the government authority and have become a major hurdle to the country’s emerging from lawlessness and anarchy. This paper explores the emergence and reemergence of warlords in Afghanistan as well as the evolution of chaos and anarchy in the country, especially after the US-led intervention of late 2001. It also analyzes the impact of the post-9/11 US support to Afghan warlords and its negative consequences for the overall stability and the US-led state-building process in Afghanistan.


Significance The US-led diplomatic boycott of the Winter Olympics in February will increase the pressure on US companies to decide whether China or the United States is their more valuable market. Some of that pressure to decide is coming from employees and customers in both countries. Impacts More frequent and sharper confrontations between US companies and China could accelerate the decoupling of the two economies. Renewed emphasis on human rights concerns will encourage the further shifting of some supply chain elements out of China. Consumer brands are particularly vulnerable to human rights concerns, as are their suppliers.


Author(s):  
Rafael Marquese

Chapter 1 by Rafael Marquese compares the impact of the demise of slavery in the US and Brazil and the transformation of the coffee economies and cotton economies. Marquese connects American Reconstruction with larger global processes to explore the reorganization of the national state and American capitalism that took place in the Era of Globalization (1870–1914). He shows how “Second Slavery,” a concept articulated by Dale Tomich, provides a model for understanding both the integrated trajectory of slavery in Brazil and the United States and the ways the coffee plantationa and economies and the cotton plantations and economies of these nations interacted after emancipation.


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