US-China tariffs worsen ASEAN middle-income trap fears

Subject Economic impact of the US-China tariffs. Significance Research into the impact of the US-China trade tariffs on other economies suggests that South-east Asia will benefit, and especially so if the tariff rate on US-China trade increases to 25% on March 1. Trade diversion to ASEAN will more than offset the impact of tariffs increasing prices at various supply chain stages, directly and indirectly dampening demand in these economies. Impacts Lower-value supply chain shifts will be easier and more prevalent, raising the quantity but not quality of GDP and jobs in beneficiaries. US officials are heading to China this week; tariff increases may be delayed but old tariffs will persist, as will the threat of more. None of the research into the impact of the conflict suggests that it will meet the US aim of notably trimming the US goods imbalance.

Subject A possible second Trump-Kim summit. Significance Vietnam last week said it had not been told about the timing or location of a possible second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un but that it was confident it could host such an event. Washington earlier in January announced that a summit would be held in February, following landmark talks between Trump and Kim in Singapore last year. Impacts A summit in Vietnam would provide Trump with a distraction from investigations into his alleged links with Russia. The summit would bolster ASEAN’s claims to be crucial to promoting peace and security in the ‘Indo-Pacific’. A successful Trump-Kim meeting would be welcomed by Beijing but would not influence US-China trade talks. Trump would be unlikely to travel to South-east Asia for a second time this year to attend the East Asia Summit in Thailand in November.


Subject Outlook for Thai-US-China relations. Significance Chatchai Thipsunaree, Thailand’s permanent secretary in the Ministry of Transport, confirmed on May 17 that construction of the long-awaited Thai-China high-speed railway will begin this year. The project reflects the growing momentum in Thailand’s relations with China, and refiguring of ties with the United States. Impacts Trump administration officials see less strategic imperative in the US-Thailand alliance than previous administrations. China’s growing presence in South-east Asia, particularly on the Mekong, will trigger resistance from affected populations in Thailand. Thai officials will allow Chinese infrastructure projects to proceed despite local protests.


Subject Taiwan growth prospects. Significance Taiwan’s GDP grew by 3.38% year-on-year in October-December 2019. This is an acceleration from 2.6% year-on-year growth in the second quarter to 3.0% in the third. Consumer spending has grown steadily, while investment reshoring and exports to the United States have grown even more strongly due to trade diversion designed to mitigate the impact of US-China trade tensions. Impacts Taiwan is not currently part of the Asia Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and its exclusion may limit its trade opportunities. If Taiwan learns from Japan’s experience of adjusting to an ageing population, automated social services could emerge as leading sectors. The president has a renewed mandate to introduce reforms aimed at raising wages and creating jobs, especially in high-skill industries.


Subject Impact of COVID-19 crisis on US-China rivalry in South-east Asia. Significance Washington’s preoccupation with handling the COVID-19 crisis has undermined the operational readiness of US armed forces in the Indo-Pacific. China has capitalised on this situation by pushing its claims in the South China Sea. Impacts South-east Asian economies will be hit hard as US-China trade tensions rise and foreign investment falls. Infrastructure projects in the region that are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative will face delays and cancellations. Medical assistance from the United States, China and elsewhere will barely ease the strain on regional health systems caused by COVID-19.


Subject Prospects for South-east Asia in 2020. Significance Most South-east Asian governments are politically secure, but they face challenges regarding trade and diplomacy. Worsening trade conditions, partly due to the US-China tariff dispute, are slowing growth in region.


2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Singhania ◽  
Piyush Mehta

Purpose Excessive working capital or paucity of the same can impair the profits and health of an organization. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of working capital management (WCM) on the profitability of firms for a sample comprising of non-financial companies in countries of South East Asia, South Asia and East Asia. Design/methodology/approach Analytical modeling has been used to estimate the impact of WCM on profitability with the help of financial data of the companies listed in major indices of the target countries (India, Pakistan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan). The mathematical model presented in the paper has been tested using two-step-generalized method of moments. Findings The study reveals a non-linear relationship between profitability of a firm and WCM for 11 economies of the Asia Pacific region. Research limitations/implications The results are subject to the differences in the market dynamics of different economies (countries). Moreover, the limitations of the specific statistical method used to verify the model apply to the model too. Practical implications The research can be used as a tool by the firms (global as well as local) to ameliorate their performance by understanding the effects of WCM on profitability in different global markets and adjusting their working capital accordingly. Originality/value The research on the impact of WCM on profitability of the firms of South East Asia, South Asia and East Asia is a new effort and tries to make the importance of WCM more luciferous.


Subject Wage politics in South-east Asia. Significance In July, Malaysia will raise the mimimum wage by 11-15%. The country is one of five in South-east Asia, along with Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia and Myanmar, increasing minimum wages in 2016. Impacts Labour costs in Vietnam are rising faster than in Indonesia, its primary competitor in the region. Non-compliance will limit the impact of recent increases on domestic consumption. A sizeable part of the ASEAN workforce is informally employed and is, therefore, unaffected by wage increases.


Significance The preferential US trade programme faces renewal or lapse by December 31. South-east Asia’s economies are structured to take advantage of the GSP and many of the products exported to the United States under GSP (such as light manufactures and seafood) are important for South-east Asia’s supply chains. Impacts Vietnam may make another application for inclusion in the US GSP programme. The more authoritarian South-east Asian countries could find it easier to gain US GSP preferences under Trump. The Trump administration could use the GSP as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations or renegotiations.


2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (9) ◽  
pp. 1003-1021
Author(s):  
Slobodan Aćimović ◽  
Veljko Mijušković ◽  
Vesna Rajić

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explain what determines the influence of reverse logistics onto green supply chain competitiveness and to find out if that influence is always uniform.Design/methodology/approachThe paper contains an empirical research conducted using a survey-based study, which encompassed a sample size of 228 participants and final consumers that have experience in buying/using products derived from the reverse logistics process.FindingsThe results indicate that the influence of reverse logistics onto green supply chain competitiveness is dependent on the product return option and is mainly negative with Serbian consumers, since the perceived quality of each of the three return options is considered to be inferior compared to new products.Practical implicationThe study's empirical results show the there is a generally negative perception among consumers regarding the perceived quality of each of the three product return options, thus directly questioning the general justification of using reverse logistics in Serbian business practice. That is a sign for Serbian managers to enhance their efforts to raise future awareness of the green initiatives importance among business partners, but also final consumers.Originality/valueThe study`s contribution is twofold: first, it helps to additionally test the established and known methodology created by Hazen et al. (2011), thus contributing to the practical dimension of international comparability concerning consumer perceptions. Second, the study adds to research by addressing the gap in practical surveys regarding the reverse logistics practices.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicky Chang Bi ◽  
Yanqin Lu ◽  
Louisa Ha ◽  
Peiqin Chen

PurposeSocial media have become an increasingly important source for people to learn about politics and public affairs. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of social media news sharing as a reasoning process of the O-S-R-O-R model and the moderation role of social media news performance on the association between news consumption and attitudinal changes.Design/methodology/approachA national survey was conducted in the US. The researcher recruited participants in the Qualtrics national panel by following the census adult demographic breakdown.FindingsThis study finds that social media news consumption on the US-China trade conflict is likely to lead Americans to change attitudes toward Chinese, and this relationship is mediated by social media news sharing. In addition, the indirect relationship via news sharing is found particularly strong among individuals who perceive social media news fair and balanced.Originality/valueThis study extends the literature by examining social media news engagement on the ongoing trade conflict between the US and China. It reveals that the impact of social media news consumption on people's attitudinal and behavioral changes depends on people's perceived news quality on these platforms. Theoretical contribution to the O-S-R-O-R model and practical implications to social media news are discussed in terms of the role that social media platforms play in attitude change.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/OIR-05-2020-0178


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