US-China tariffs worsen ASEAN middle-income trap fears
Subject Economic impact of the US-China tariffs. Significance Research into the impact of the US-China trade tariffs on other economies suggests that South-east Asia will benefit, and especially so if the tariff rate on US-China trade increases to 25% on March 1. Trade diversion to ASEAN will more than offset the impact of tariffs increasing prices at various supply chain stages, directly and indirectly dampening demand in these economies. Impacts Lower-value supply chain shifts will be easier and more prevalent, raising the quantity but not quality of GDP and jobs in beneficiaries. US officials are heading to China this week; tariff increases may be delayed but old tariffs will persist, as will the threat of more. None of the research into the impact of the conflict suggests that it will meet the US aim of notably trimming the US goods imbalance.