Investment will drive solid Taiwanese growth in 2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
The Impact

Subject Taiwan growth prospects. Significance Taiwan’s GDP grew by 3.38% year-on-year in October-December 2019. This is an acceleration from 2.6% year-on-year growth in the second quarter to 3.0% in the third. Consumer spending has grown steadily, while investment reshoring and exports to the United States have grown even more strongly due to trade diversion designed to mitigate the impact of US-China trade tensions. Impacts Taiwan is not currently part of the Asia Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and its exclusion may limit its trade opportunities. If Taiwan learns from Japan’s experience of adjusting to an ageing population, automated social services could emerge as leading sectors. The president has a renewed mandate to introduce reforms aimed at raising wages and creating jobs, especially in high-skill industries.

South-east Asia will further champion free trade

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Community Integration ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Asean Economic Community ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Subject South-east Asia's push for trade agreements. Significance Late last month, an Indonesian delegation led by Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita began a week of negotiations in Washington to lobby against the withdrawal of trade preferences for Indonesian exports to the United States. Meanwhile, South-east Asian states are involved in two major trade agreements: the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the 16-state Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Impacts US trade reprisals against Indonesia could weaken Jakarta’s support for Washington’s diplomatic pressure on North Korea. The US-China tariff escalation could prompt partners to redirect some of their trade, boosting trade between Taiwan and South-east Asia. ASEAN Economic Community integration will be slow despite progress in RCEP and the CPTPP.

Vietnam’s new leaders will prioritise economy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Central Committee ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Step Down ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
General Secretary

Significance CPV members will elect a 200-person Central Committee, which in turn will elect a Politburo, the party’s highest-ranking body. It is widely expected that Nguyen Phu Trong will step down as CPV general secretary, as party rules limit senior officials to two terms in office. Impacts Vietnam will promptly ratify the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which it signed with 14 other countries in November. Hanoi will count on the United States dialling down pressure over trade-related disagreements during Joe Biden’s presidency. Vietnam will continue to attract foreign investors looking to relocate capital from China.

Asia-centred trade pacts will proceed with weaknesses

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Regional Trade Agreements ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
State Regional

Significance In contrast to this tariff escalation, eagerness to preserve the multilateral, rules-based economic order is drawing Asian countries into inter-regional trade agreements. Negotiations are ongoing to bring into effect a 16-state Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and an eleven-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Impacts Absent US involvement in the trade agreements, China will champion its own version of global free trade. Modifications within the CPTPP may reduce any incentive for the United States to rejoin. A US withdrawal from the WTO would weaken dispute systems used by smaller countries.

China agreement will not help US manufacturers

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Trade Negotiations ◽  
Upper Midwest ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Wars

Subject The impact of the US-China trade wars on US manufacturers. Significance The United States and China reached a tentative agreement in trade negotiations on October 11 that President Donald Trump described as "a substantial phase one deal". The deal, which is yet to be finalised, centres on China's agreement to purchase some 40-50 billion dollars' worth of additional US agricultural goods annually, and Trump's agreement to suspend a planned increase in tariffs on 250 billion dollars' worth of Chinese goods, from 25% to 30%, that was due to take effect tomorrow. However, existing tariffs on both sides remain in place. Impacts A manufacturing recession could lead to greater upper Midwest voters’ discontent. Midwestern voter discontent could help a Democrat win the presidency in 2020, and a populist win the party’s nomination. US-based manufacturers could benefit from new contracts as supply lines are revised, but costs would rise. A second Trump tax cut in 2020 could temporarily help US-based firms avoid competitiveness gaps.

Beijing prepares to seize gains from Trump win

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Alliances ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Sanctions ◽  
Maritime Disputes ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Moral High Ground ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Subject The implications for China of Donald Trump's election as US president. Significance Donald Trump was elected president of the United States on November 8, after a campaign in which he blamed China's trade policy for damaging US industry. He threatened trade sanctions on China, but also questioned the value of US military alliances with countries on its periphery. Impacts Beijing's first priority will be preventing a showdown on bilateral trade. Isolationism in the United States would free China's hand in dealing with maritime disputes. Climate change 'denial' is not an issue in China, so here Washington will vacate the moral high ground to Beijing. Stalled progress in the Trans-Pacific Partnership leaves the China-backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership as the alternative.

scholarly journals India’s China Challenge: Foreign Policy Dilemmas Post-Galwan and Post-Covid

2021 ◽  
pp. 2140003
Author(s):  
DAVID SCOTT
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
China Policy ◽  
Economic Competition ◽  
Maritime Silk Road ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
Strategic Autonomy ◽  
The Impact

The paper analyzes the challenge to India from China, and the dilemmas faced by India in shaping an appropriate response. A two-level theory analysis indicates that some diminishing cooperation is possible at the global level, for example over environmental issues. However, regionally, this has been overtaken structurally by increasing sharp confrontation along the Himalayas and by rising geopolitical and geo-economic competition across Asia and the Indo-Pacific. This has been overlaid in 2020–2021 by the particularly negative effect on Indian relations with China of the clashes and casualties at Galwan and the impact of Covid-19. Given this sharpening challenge, the paper finds that India’s cherished axiom of full strategic autonomy now has to be tempered in its response by balancing dictates, particularly in the light of Stephen Walt’s balance of threat model. India’s responses pose various dilemmas in terms of effectiveness and counter-productiveness. Geopolitically, dilemmas continue to revolve for India around how far to invoke a Tibet Card and a Taiwan Card in its One China policy; and how far India can shape an immediate web (in effect around China) through strengthening security links with Vietnam, Mongolia and South Korea. Dilemmas also follow from how far India should pursue tighter security/military arrangements with more powerful China-concerned states like Australia, Japan, France, and above all, the United States. Geo-economically, India’s dilemmas revolve around how to respond to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and to China’s Maritime Silk Road scheme. Looking forward, an important factor will be how far India pulls away from Covid-19 disruption to the economy, and how far it will need to divert long-term economic funding away from immediate short-term military projects.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Impact of RCEP on China’s Mining Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Zhiwei Lu
Keyword(s):  
Mining Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
New Period ◽  
Potential Risks ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact

<p>RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), a modern, comprehensive, high-level and mutually beneficial agreement was signed<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">, which</span> marks the official establishment of the free trade zone with the largest participating population, the most diverse membership structure and the greatest development potential in the world. Benefit<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">ed</span> from RCEP<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">, the</span> regional trade liberalization <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">can be achieved and the</span> rising global inflation expectations <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">can be reached</span>. The mining industry, especially the metal industry, may usher in a new period of development opportunities. However, potential risks still need to be paid attention to. For example, the implementation of RCEP is <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">far less than expectations; </span>the situation of Sino-US trade has further deteriorated<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">;</span> and the implementation of economic stimulus policies in Europe and the United States falls <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">out</span> of expectations.</p>

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF US POLICY ON ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN THE ASIA PACIFIC ON THE THRESHOLD OF THE THIRD DECADE OF THE 21ST CENTURY

2020 ◽  
pp. 71-87
Author(s):  
K. O. Chudinova
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
The United States ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Production Networks ◽  
The Us ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
The Impact

The Trump administration’s economic policy has led to increased uncertainty, disruption to global value chains, decline in trade in the Asia-Pacific region. Amid the US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, revising NAFTA, imposing tariffs, decoupling from the Chinese economy, Japan, China and other economies in the Asia Pacific are trying to develop new mechanisms to increase stability in the region and protect their production networks. One way to improve the situation is to conclude intra-regional and inter-regional free trade agreements, the number of which is increasing. At present, there are two competing mega-FTA projects of China and Japan – the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. The United States is with moderate success developing its own format of a free and open Indo-Pacific, which is partly a counterbalance to the RCEP. The US also concludes bilateral agreements, such as first phases of trade deals with Japan and China. However, winning the negotiating table, the United States can seriously lose in competitiveness, as regional integration develops further and often without the participation of America.

RCEP will step into gap as Trump pulls out of TPP

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
New Members ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Subject The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Significance Shortly after Donald Trump was sworn in as US president on January 20, his administration announced withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. This leaves the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which unlike TPP includes China, as Asia's most ambitious planned regional trade agreement. The RCEP encompasses North-east Asia, South-east Asia, India, Australia and New Zealand. It has so far received less attention than the larger, more comprehensive TPP, but is now more likely to happen. Impacts The TPP's collapse leaves China as the leader of large-scale regional economic integration, with the RCEP as the main pillar. The RCEP will probably be more open to new members than the TPP would have been. The RCEP may enhance the regional and global role of China, potentially contributing to bilateral rivalry with the United States.

US-China tariffs worsen ASEAN middle-income trap fears

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Subject Economic impact of the US-China tariffs. Significance Research into the impact of the US-China trade tariffs on other economies suggests that South-east Asia will benefit, and especially so if the tariff rate on US-China trade increases to 25% on March 1. Trade diversion to ASEAN will more than offset the impact of tariffs increasing prices at various supply chain stages, directly and indirectly dampening demand in these economies. Impacts Lower-value supply chain shifts will be easier and more prevalent, raising the quantity but not quality of GDP and jobs in beneficiaries. US officials are heading to China this week; tariff increases may be delayed but old tariffs will persist, as will the threat of more. None of the research into the impact of the conflict suggests that it will meet the US aim of notably trimming the US goods imbalance.

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