Nigeria’s independent institutions face major threats

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Interest ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
Poll Result ◽  
The Military ◽  
Governance Reforms ◽  
Independent Institutions

Significance Onnoghen was suspended by President Muhammadu Buhari in January after the chief justice's indictment over the alleged non-declaration of assets in an apparently politically-motivated case. Meanwhile, Buhari’s principal challenger in last February’s presidential election, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), is still challenging the poll result. Impacts Public interest in governance reforms could wane, with a shift to ensuring stability over advocating change. The military and security services will face growing scrutiny and criticism over their increased politicisation. Intensified leadership divisions within the ruling APC could increasingly frustrate Buhari’s agenda during his second term. A mooted probe of the army’s role in the recent elections is unlikely to result in any major sanctions. Buhari may propose a consensus option for the Senate presidency but could face internal APC opposition.

US election raises doubts over Japan-US alliance

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Campaign Rhetoric ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
East Asia Region ◽  
Presidential Election Campaign

Subject The implications for Japan of the US presidential election. Significance US presidential election campaign rhetoric has sparked serious concerns in Japan about Washington's commitment to the East Asia region in the context of a long-term rise in geopolitical tensions. Republican candidate Donald Trump has publicly questioned the value of the US-Japan alliance, while Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton has muted her previous support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, seen as the economic component of the US 'rebalance' to Asia under President Barack Obama's administration. Impacts Doubts about the US commitment to the region work to Beijing's advantage. The US government's likely failure to ratify the TPP will damage perceptions of Washington's commitment to the region. Though occasionally mooted, the idea of developing nuclear weapons is a non-starter in Japan.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

Angola leader could rescind his 2018 retirement pledge

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject Political outlook for Angola. Significance President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, in power since 1979, recently announced that he would relinquish the presidency in 2018. While Dos Santos is believed to favour a transition to one of his own children or to Vice-President Manuel Vicente, neither option will find favour in the ranks of the ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) or the wider public. Impacts The military will be immune from major spending cuts given its critical role in ensuring the longevity of the regime. Rising repayment burdens on Chinese loans (estimated to total 25 billion dollars) will further undermine budgetary resources. As social protests rise, the government will respond by clamping down on critics and tightening rules governing civil society groups.

Nigerian restructuring debates will persist

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Federal System ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Revenue Allocation

Subject Nigeria's restructuring debates. Significance Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, a potential presidential candidate for the opposition People's Democratic Party (PDP) in next year's elections, has publicly backed restructuring Nigeria's centralised, federal system. His comments follow shortly after a committee from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) produced a report that proposed giving each of Nigeria's 36 states control over mineral resources, decentralising the security forces and reviewing the states' revenue allocation formula. Despite advocating for restructuring during his 2015 presidential campaign, President Muhammadu Buhari has recently dismissed calls for greater devolution. Impacts Significant national restructuring would likely necessitate a census, something there is currently little political appetite for. Police force devolution is one of the APC restructuring proposals most likely to find favour with Buhari's government. Ending a Senate-presidency impasse over central bank nominations will bring short-term investor relief, but divisions will likely linger.

Mongolia's new president may push nationalistic policy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
The Public

Subject The recent presidential election in Mongolia. Significance With the victory of Khaltmaa Battulga in the presidential election on July 7, the Democratic Party (DP) has held onto the presidency. The legislature and cabinet remain in the hands of the rival Mongolian People’s Party (MPP). The election of an MPP president would have signalled continuity and stability; a Battulga win introduces uncertainty. Impacts Battulga may push to scale back austerity and provide the public with more immediate benefits from the resources sector. Despite the anti-Chinese sentiment evident during Battulga's election campaign, he is more likely to be pragmatic than confrontational. Battulga may use the presidency's foreign policy powers to reach out to Russia.

Bhutan’s next government will aim to diversify economy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Violence ◽  
India And China

Significance The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) was ousted in the first round on September 15. The DNT and DPT manifestos concentrate on youth unemployment and public debt. The 2013 elections, which involved debate about Bhutan’s relations with close ally India and China, saw several DNT candidates joining the PDP after the first round. Impacts Polling in the second round will be peaceful, with electoral violence highly unlikely. The new government will come under pressure to curb corruption. The Maldives will favour India over China following Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s surprise win in the presidential election.

Kremlin wants 2018 Russian poll to give real mandate

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Liberal Democratic Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Narrative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Liberal Democratic ◽  
Fourth Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
One Year

Subject Kremlin strategy for the 2018 presidential election. Significance With one year to go before the 2018 presidential election, the Kremlin strategy that will frame the process is starting to take shape. The nature of Vladimir Putin’s campaign has a bearing on his fourth term, during which he must either identify a successor or engineer an extension of his tenure beyond 2024. Impacts Putin will rally populist sentiment on the back of foreign policy successes in Crimea and Syria. A possible rapprochement with the United States would restrict the national narrative of ‘Russia encircled’. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist candidates will criticise the government but will not run opposition campaigns.

New Gambian president will re-engage the West

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
The Military

Significance If Barrow is inaugurated, it will mark the first peaceful transfer of power since the country gained independence. Incumbent Yahya Jammeh, who seized power in a 1994 military coup, was widely expected to claim victory, despite widespread frustration. With the economy stagnant and the unemployment rate among the highest in West Africa, Barrow successfully united much of the political opposition. Jammeh's concession was unexpected given the repression that his security services employed prior to the election. Impacts A new administration will look to draw prominent figures from across The Gambia's ethnic groups. Security will remain taut ahead of the upcoming inauguration and legislative elections scheduled for April. The new government could renew its commitment to the International Criminal Court (ICC). There could be widespread calls for the prosecution of Jammeh, which may provoke unrest within the military and new coup fears.

Maldives presidential election raises violence risk

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance President Abdulla Yameen, who earlier this year arrested two Supreme Court judges while imposing a state of emergency, will be aiming to retain power. Yameen faces a challenge from Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who has most of the opposition's support. Impacts Travel warnings ahead of the election will cause tourist cancellations, hitting the economy. Any unrest within the military will affect security at the airport. Instability could encourage Islamist militants to travel to the Maldives.

The 1964 Military Coup in Brazil

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
João Roberto Martins Filho
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Social Democratic Party ◽  
Coup D'etat ◽  
Military Forces ◽  
The Government ◽  
Getulio Vargas ◽  
The Military

The coup that took place in Brazil on March 31, 1964 can be understood as a typical Cold War event. Supported by civilians, the action was carried out by the armed forces. Its origins hark back to the failed military revolt, headed by the Brazilian Communist Party (PCB), in November of 1935, stirring up strong anticommunist sentiments. The Estado Novo coup, which occurred two years later, was supported by the army (war) and navy ministers. It marked the beginnings of the dictatorial phase of Getúlio Vargas, who had been in power since 1930. At the end of the Second World War, officers who had taken part in the struggle against Nazism in Italy returned to Brazil and overthrew the dictatorial Vargas regime, who nonetheless returned to power through the 1950 presidential elections. In 1954, under pressure from right-wing military forces, he committed suicide, thereby frustrating existing plans for another coup d’état. The Superior War School (ESG), created in 1949, had become both the birthplace of the ideology of National Security and stage where the French doctrine of guerre révolutionnaire was welcomed. During the 1950s, the military came to be divided into pro-American and nationalist factions. The alliance between the Brazilian Labor Party (PTB) and the centrist Social Democratic Party (PSD), which had elected Vargas earlier, now enabled Juscelino Kubitschek’s victory in the 1955 elections, disappointing the conservatives of the National Democratic Union (UDN) and its military allies. The latter were briefly encouraged when the 1960 presidential election put Jânio Quadros at the head of the executive. In August 1961, when Quadros resigned, his military ministers tried to use force to keep Vice-President João Goulart, Vargas’s political heir at the head of the PTB, from taking office. The coup was frustrated by the resistance of the governor of the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Yet the Goulart administration was marked by instability, in the midst of intense social struggles and by a sharp economic crisis. The outcome of this drama began to take shape in March 1963, when the government took a leftwards turn. A massive demonstration in downtown Rio de Janeiro on March 13 served as an alert, and the March 25 sailors’ revolt as the match in the powder keg. On March 31, military forces carried out the infamous coup. The Goulart administration collapsed. Social movements were left waiting for orders to resist that never came.

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