Mongolia's new president may push nationalistic policy

Subject The recent presidential election in Mongolia. Significance With the victory of Khaltmaa Battulga in the presidential election on July 7, the Democratic Party (DP) has held onto the presidency. The legislature and cabinet remain in the hands of the rival Mongolian People’s Party (MPP). The election of an MPP president would have signalled continuity and stability; a Battulga win introduces uncertainty. Impacts Battulga may push to scale back austerity and provide the public with more immediate benefits from the resources sector. Despite the anti-Chinese sentiment evident during Battulga's election campaign, he is more likely to be pragmatic than confrontational. Battulga may use the presidency's foreign policy powers to reach out to Russia.

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
Ikromal Hasin ◽  
Akhmad Sofyan ◽  
Edy Hariyadi

Presidential Election is a democratic party to elect new leaders. A spokesperson is needed to attract the public to choose the candidate pairs who compete to win the party. A spokesperson for TKN-Jokowi's National Campaign Team (Indonesian: Tim Kampanye Nasional) is one example of a spokesperson who carried out this task. This article aims to discuss the national campaign team's speech acts strategy in Kompas TV program entitled "Dua Arah". The researcher will categorize articulation carried out by the spokesperson of TKN into four types of speech works: persuasive, defending, attacking, and challenging. The data analysis method used analyses speech based on the specified categories in speech acts, presuppositions, implicatures, cooperative principles, and the principle of manners found in the address based on the context of the talk. The results showed that the spokesperson for the TKN placed persuasive action in the first position, fending effort in the second position, attacking movement in the third position, and challenging activities in the last part. Convincing story at the first position aims to attract the people's sympathy to choose Jokowi-Ma'ruf Amin with the most utterances telling Jokowi's government program's success. The challenging action in the last position contains a request to the spokesman of BPN-Prabowo's election campaign team (Indonesian: Badan Pemenangan Nasional) to do something and explain their statement in detail.


Significance At the same time, the June 18 presidential election campaign is beginning, with top judge Ibrahim Raisi registering as a favoured candidate. Heading a high-profile anti-corruption campaign, Raisi has been a strong advocate of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s ‘resistance economy’ policy to undermine sanctions by supporting domestic production. Impacts Effective legislation to manage conflicts of interest, including of officials’ family members, will likely remain blocked. Local business interests that would benefit from more global links may have a strong voice even under a conservative government. The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps will keep a firm grip on the infrastructure sector.


Significance Three candidates competed for the country's supreme political office in the election on April 26. Unsurprisingly, Nazarbayev (74) won by a landslide, obtaining 97.7% of the total votes cast; the official turnout was 95.2%. This is the fifth presidential election in Kazakhstan since it gained independence in 1991. Nazarbayev's triumphant re-election suggests he intends to stay in power so long as his health permits. The prospect of an early succession is, therefore, again indefinitely delayed. Impacts Nazarbayev's re-election and apparent intention to stay in power are positive signs for foreign investors interested in political stability. His win may facilitate implementing anti-crisis measures thanks to domestic stability and a high degree of political centralisation. Kazakhstan's strategic alliance with Russia in the Eurasian Union is unlikely to experience major changes after Nazarbayev's re-election. Astana will continue to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy aimed at good relations with Russia, China, the West and Islamic countries.


Subject The implications for Japan of the US presidential election. Significance US presidential election campaign rhetoric has sparked serious concerns in Japan about Washington's commitment to the East Asia region in the context of a long-term rise in geopolitical tensions. Republican candidate Donald Trump has publicly questioned the value of the US-Japan alliance, while Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton has muted her previous support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, seen as the economic component of the US 'rebalance' to Asia under President Barack Obama's administration. Impacts Doubts about the US commitment to the region work to Beijing's advantage. The US government's likely failure to ratify the TPP will damage perceptions of Washington's commitment to the region. Though occasionally mooted, the idea of developing nuclear weapons is a non-starter in Japan.


Significance The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) was ousted in the first round on September 15. The DNT and DPT manifestos concentrate on youth unemployment and public debt. The 2013 elections, which involved debate about Bhutan’s relations with close ally India and China, saw several DNT candidates joining the PDP after the first round. Impacts Polling in the second round will be peaceful, with electoral violence highly unlikely. The new government will come under pressure to curb corruption. The Maldives will favour India over China following Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s surprise win in the presidential election.


Significance He leaves office having failed to achieve his ambition to reform Japan’s constitution, and is widely seen as having mismanaged the most serious public health crisis in decades. Impacts New foreign policy initiatives are unlikely until after the US presidential election. Abe could make a decision before leaving office on whether Japan should acquire pre-emptive strike capabilities. No moves on constitution revision are likely for the next twelve months at least. Japan would be at a disadvantage if a foreign policy crisis were to occur in the next twelve months, and the next few weeks in particular. Whether the Olympics next summer go well will have some influence on whether Suga stays on as leader.


Significance Erdogan is the second head of government (after Necmettin Erbakan, 1996-97) to emerge from a specifically Islamist political movement. Under his leadership, Islam has become more prominent in political discourse, public and state affairs, and even foreign policy. One measure of his impact and eventual legacy will be the extent to which Turkish society and politics have become more religious as a result of his rule. Impacts Religious elements are likely to remain entrenched in the public service and education. Any fresh attempt to de-secularise Turkey after Erdogan will be able to draw on his legacy. Turkey will struggle to adopt a pragmatic and consistent foreign policy.


Subject Romania after Dragnea. Significance For much of the last five years that Liviu Dragnea controlled the Social Democrats (PSD), he also dominated the Romanian state politically. His 42-month sentence for corruption, handed down on May 27, has opened up a vacuum in the ruling PSD, and there is no obvious successor. The verdict came immediately after two electoral blows -- massive defeat in the European Parliament (EP) elections; and a resounding rebuff in a non-binding referendum in which over 80% opposed PSD attempts to amend or cancel anti-corruption legislation. Impacts President Iohannis is likely to assert himself in foreign policy, but has lost leverage in deciding senior judicial appointments. The presidential election this autumn may not be crucial in the tussle for power, as the presidency has much-reduced powers. The EU will be highly critical of Romania’s fast-increasing budget deficit, a legacy of the Dragnea era.


Subject Kremlin strategy for the 2018 presidential election. Significance With one year to go before the 2018 presidential election, the Kremlin strategy that will frame the process is starting to take shape. The nature of Vladimir Putin’s campaign has a bearing on his fourth term, during which he must either identify a successor or engineer an extension of his tenure beyond 2024. Impacts Putin will rally populist sentiment on the back of foreign policy successes in Crimea and Syria. A possible rapprochement with the United States would restrict the national narrative of ‘Russia encircled’. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist candidates will criticise the government but will not run opposition campaigns.


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