Political standoff risks East Timor’s economic future

Subject East Timor's political and economic outlook. Significance Tension between President Francisco Guterres and Prime Minister Taur Matan Ruak over the filling of ministerial positions is paralysing policymaking. Meanwhile, East Timor is set to step up planning with joint venture partners for the development of the Greater Sunrise gas field that lies largely in its waters. Impacts The lack of ministers in the government will reduce state capacity. Political instability and overdependence on its Petroleum Fund will frustrate East Timor’s attempts to join ASEAN. Major infrastructure development will require increased Chinese lending.

Subject The political and economic outlook for Papua New Guinea. Significance Despite combined GDP growth of nearly 20% over the last two years, the fall in commodity prices has exposed the downside risks in the government's economic strategy and seriously damaged its political credibility. A government cash crisis driven by a 20% fall in expected revenues in 2015 is fracturing the country's politics. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a history of getting through crises, although this has usually involved a changing of the prime minister and an IMF programme. Impacts The government budget crisis and foreign exchange shortages will hurt growth in 2016. There is a risk of forced sale of foreign-owned businesses and land. Foreign exchange shortages may be the greatest risk to businesses.


Significance The ordinance aims to facilitate land acquisition for infrastructure development as well as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'Make in India' manufacturing campaign. Launched recently amid a bleak industrial growth scenario, the campaign seeks to make India a global manufacturing hub. However, measures such as the land ordinance are inadequate to realise this as yet largely undefined goal, especially given the tough global economic conditions that have developed since 2008. Impacts There is limited room to boost export competitiveness with currency devaluation due to India's heavy import dependence. The government is likely to dilute labour laws to woo investors, at the expense of its own longer-term vision for manufacturing. The new ordinance could facilitate land acquisition in some states, but the wider infrastructure deficit is an abiding constraint.


Subject Political and economic outlook. Significance The national unity government of President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe completed its first year in July. After a phase of poor cohesion and unpopular decisions, the government is regaining public support. Sirisena, leader of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and Wickremesinghe, leader of the United National Party (UNP), have extended their alliance to 2020, boosting political stability. Yet significant economic and political challenges remain. Impacts Dependence on Chinese investment is unavoidable, but Colombo will seek new partners. Rajapaksa will remain the most important political challenge for the government. Ethnic reconciliation is a distant dream, but overt tensions are subsiding.


2018 ◽  
Vol 34 ◽  
pp. 01020
Author(s):  
Norsyakilah Romeli ◽  
Faridah Muhamad Halil ◽  
Faridah Ismail ◽  
Muhammad Sufian Hasim

As many developed country practise, the function of the infrastructure is to connect the each region of Malaysia holistically and infrastructure is an investment network projects such as transportation water and sewerage, power, communication and irrigations system. Hence, a billions allocations of government income reserved for the sake of the infrastructure development. Towards a successful infrastructure development, a joint venture approach has been promotes by 2016 in one of the government thrust in Construction Industry Transformation Plan which encourage the internationalisation among contractors. However, there is depletion in information on the actual practise of the infrastructure joint venture projects in Malaysia. Therefore, this study attempt to explore the real application of the joint venture in Malaysian infrastructure projects. Using the questionnaire survey, a set of survey question distributed to the targeted respondents. The survey contained three section which the sections are respondent details, organizations background and project capital in infrastructure joint venture project. The results recorded and analyse using SPSS software. The contractors stated that they have implemented the joint venture practice with mostly the client with the usual construction period of the infrastructure project are more than 5 years. Other than that, the study indicates that there are problems in the joint venture project in the perspective of the project capital and the railway infrastructure should be given a highlights in future study due to its high significant in term of cost and technical issues.


Significance The government vows that freeports will represent “hubs of enterprise which will allow places to carry out business inside a country’s land border but where different customs rules apply”. The creation of freeports are a central component of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government to facilitate global trade and promote regional regeneration in the post-Brexit era. Impacts With Brexit, London will have more flexibility regarding the concessions it can offer businesses operating in freeports. The government vows to create freeports in the devolved regions but faces the difficult task of cooperating with the devolved governments. Some poorer regions will miss out on freeports, which could leave them even more deprived and stoke local resentment against London.


Significance The five-party coalition enters office at a time of intense economic and social uncertainty resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, rising debt and soaring energy prices. Prime Minister Petr Fiala's greatest challenges involve negotiating between the five coalition partners and restoring respectability to Czech politics. Impacts The new government will be less sceptical about closer EU integration, given the upcoming Czech EU presidency from mid-2022. The government will try to reopen EU Green Deal chapters to renegotiate compensation for highly industrialised member states. Former Prime Minister Andrej Babis may run for president in 2023. Babis will strive to avoid losing parliamentary immunity from prosecution relating to the Stork’s Nest affair and alleged EU subsidy fraud.


Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.


Significance The hryvnia crisis, which has seen the currency's value plummet, has deepened. However, as reported by Reuters, the NBU decision was suddenly reversed following heavy criticism from Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who said the move was bad for the economy. Overall, Ukraine's economy continues to be weak and vulnerable to shocks. The local economy had already been struggling for most of 2012-13, owing largely to weak external demand and deteriorating trade relations with Russia. However, the political turmoil that the country found itself in soon after the February 2014 change of power exacerbated these troubles significantly. Impacts Continued economic decline will prompt the government to take new unpopular belt-tightening measures in order to get international aid. Rapid economic reforms increase the risk of mass social discontent with far-reaching political implications. Should key merchandise exports fall further, producers could face an effective loss of their main markets.


Subject Prospects for the banking sector. Significance The government is buying a 30% stake in the Austrian lender Erste Bank under a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The MoU signifies a volte-face by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose relationship with foreign-owned banks has been fraught with difficulties since the imposition of a levy on financial institutions in 2010 that drove down earnings and achieved notoriety as one of the highest taxes of its kind in Europe. The government has pledged to reduce the bank tax during 2016-19. Impacts The MoU may not redefine government relations with foreign banks, but could mean more activity on the market by institutional investors. Banks will clean up balance sheets, adopting a 'wait and see' strategy until FX debt relief peters out and the bank tax starts to fall. A return to profitability is unlikely before 2016; much depends on an uptake in corporate and household loans denominated in local currency.


Significance The process looks in danger. Serious local conflicts in south-eastern Turkey are straining tensions between Kurds and the government, even though guerrilla warfare has not resumed. Kurdish self-confidence is rising because of its fighters' success in expelling Islamic State group (ISG) from Kobani. However, dialogue between the government and imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan continues, and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu seems more sensitive to Kurdish aspirations than his predecessors. Impacts Ocalan's leadership of the PKK is unshakable, but his ability to persuade his followers to avoid clashes on the streets is weakening. The conflict between the Kurds and Islamists inside Turkey will grow. Public opinion, including conservative religious elements, will block significant concessions to the Kurds, limiting the government's scope. The Kurds are emerging as a key regional opponent of Islamist politics.


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