Asymmetric J-curve in the Commodity Trade between Pakistan and China

The J-curve is a term used to describe short-run deterioration in the trade balance combined with long-run improvement subsequent to a currency devaluation or depreciation. While the majority of studies have tested the symmetric J-curve concept, the new direction is to test for an asymmetric J-curve. We tested both concepts for each of the 21 two-digit industries that trade between Pakistan and its major partner, China. While we found support for the symmetric J-curve in only six industries, we found support for the asymmetric J-curve in 13 industries. The two largest industries, coded 71 (machinery other than electric with 21.14% trade share) and 72 (electrical machinery, apparatus, and appliances with 16.87% trade share) were found to be in the list.

The policies that can be implemented to stop the value of UZB som from falling.

The objective of this paper is to analyze any details about currency devaluation in Uzbekistan. In particular, it tries to analyze possible reasons why the government of Uzbekistan depreciated its national currency Som(UZS) and the goals of the government from devaluating Som. The methodology also offers findings positive and negative impacts caused by the depreciation of Som.

The asymmetric effects of currency devaluation in selected sub-Saharan Africa

Economic activities in many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have weakened markedly in the last few years, with deterioration in trade balances, increasing foreign reserve depletion, and exchange rate depreciation. This situation has led to a call by the International Monetary Fund for more flexible exchange rate adjustment and even currency devaluation to reverse the economic downturn. This call for devaluation has generated controversy among economists and policymakers in these countries and has revived the need to study the effects of devaluation on economic output in SSA countries. This study therefore examines the asymmetric effects of currency devaluation as a policy shift on economic output between 1980 and 2019 in six selected SSA countries, namely Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Malawi. The study employs the smooth transition regression (STR) model to determine the relative asymmetric responses of economic output to devaluation and nondevaluation regimes. The results of STR are mixed, as devaluation asymmetrically impacts positively and significantly on economic output in Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique, but is insignificant in the case of Nigeria and Malawi. This mixed result suggests that the impact of currency devaluation on economic output differs across countries depending on the structure and size of the economy, the nature of goods produced, and the supportive policies in place, among other things. The policy implication of the findings is that policymakers in various countries should understand the peculiarity of core macroeconomic variables in order to design and implement robust policies.

Evaluating the Impact of Increased Fuel Cost and Iran’s Currency Devaluation on Road Traffic Volume and Offenses in Iran, 2011–2019

Trends and underlying patterns should be identified in the timely distribution of road traffic offenses to increase traffic safety. In this study, a time series analysis was used to study the incidence rate of road traffic violations on Iranian rural roads. Road traffic volume and offenses data from March 2011 to October 2019 were aggregated. Interrupted time series were used to evaluate the impact of increasing fuel cost in June of 2013 and July of 2014 and the currency devaluation of Rial vs. US dollars in July of 2017 on trends and patterns, traffic volume, and number of offenses. A change-point detection (CPD) analysis was also used to identify singular changes in the frequency of traffic offenses. Results show a general decline in the number of overtaking and speeding offenses of −24.31% and −13.23%, respectively, due to the first increase in fuel cost. The second increase only reduced overtaking by 20.97%. In addition, Iran’s currency devaluation reduced the number of overtaking offenses by 26.39%. Modeling a change-point detection and a Mann-Kendall Test of traffic offenses in Iran, it was found that the burden of violations was reduced.

Lebanese anti-corruption legislation will disappoint

Significance Parliament passed long-awaited anti-corruption laws in April and May in response to protests. These include a comprehensive UN-based definition of corruption, the creation of a national commission to combat it and the removal of banking secrecy rules. Impacts Adib's reliance on the goodwill and support of entrenched sectarian interests will preclude taking serious measures against them. Protesters will demand an institutional overhaul including resignations of president and parliamentary speaker above legislative changes. The failure to implement anti-corruption legislation could boost tensions with France, other EU countries and the IMF. Petty corruption will likely increase, as people look to black markets to survive the economic collapse and currency devaluation.

Beirut faces a massive challenge on aid and reform

Significance The government has drawn up a detailed document setting out the gravity of the country’s economic plight and requesting over 10 billion dollars of additional aid from the IMF and other donors to support reforms aiming to put the economy on a sound footing by 2024. Many of the reforms are familiar, but others are new and radical, including devaluation and drastic measures to reduce public debt and restructure the financial system. Impacts Elites will broadly support the plan, seeing few alternatives. Currency devaluation will contribute to inflation and could push many more people into poverty. The IMF programme will include social safety nets, though these may exclude some of the most vulnerable, including refugees. Measures will struggle to address the deep-rooted corruption that is intrinsic to Lebanon’s sectarian patronage system.

Reform or Collapse: Economic Challenges During Vietnamization

This chapter explores the challenges of implementing reforms for the Republic of Vietnam during its “Vietnamization,” or U.S. troop withdrawal. At the time, there were many underlying difficulties to the task of enforcing fiscal discipline, fighting inflation, and economic restructuring. In the face of this economic conundrum, the Republic of Vietnam and the United States saw things through their own perspectives. American advisors moralized that “it was time for Vietnam to stand on its own feet.” Foreign observers saw conspicuous wealth in a country at war: motorbikes, televisions, and every kind of luxury. Economists criticized what they saw as a country that “consumes much, but produces little.” Meanwhile, local politicians kept approving more expensive budgets but shied away from unpopular revenue-collecting measures, instead blaming the situation on incompetent ministers. For too long, Vietnam avoided the political taboos of currency devaluation and taxation whenever confronted with the structural imbalances of its economy.