PiS cannot count on winning Polish elections outright

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Reform ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
Radical State ◽  
The Eu

Significance The October 13 parliamentary election will be one of the most important and consequential since 1989. If PiS wins, it will entrench and continue pushing ahead with its radical state reform programme and more assertive approach to EU and foreign policy. If the opposition wins, it is likely to try to reverse PiS reforms and remove its supporters from key state posts, but it will probably form a weak and unstable government and its legislative programme could be undermined by the PiS-supported president. Impacts If PiS is returned to office, it will press on with its programme of purging all vestiges of the communist period. It may find the von der Leyen European Commission less critical of democratic backsliding than its predecessor. Assuming no change in economic policy, growth will slow because of external factors, while remaining well above the EU average rate.

Germany’s coalition faces division on several fronts

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Public Image ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strong Emphasis ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
Policy Decision Making ◽  
The Eu

Significance The three parties successfully negotiated a coalition agreement with a strong emphasis on modernising Germany’s economy. Throughout the negotiations, the parties presented a public image of stability and harmony, yet several divisive issues will test the new government's stability and effectiveness. Impacts The composition of the new government will make it harder for Berlin to win approval for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will seek to prioritise more unity at the EU level when it comes to foreign policy decision-making. The spread of the Omicron variant will slow economic recovery and potentially delay the transition to a greener economy.

Catalonia triggers long-term Spain state reform

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Reform ◽  
Basque Region

Significance The Catalonia independence question is catalysing a broader reconsideration of Spanish state structures. It is also affecting the outlook for the December 20 national parliamentary election, while intensifying polarisation in Catalonia. Impacts Splits among pro-independence forces may see Catalonia's Parliament fail to re-elect Artur Mas as regional president, possibly today. If so, efforts to form a new Catalonia government would continue; after January 10, 2016, a repeat election would be required. The Catalan issue may be causing a small voter shift rightwards, making the PP's poll lead more stable, albeit still small, in a tight race. State reform could risk upsetting the existing accommodation between Madrid and the Basque region, without satisfying many in Catalonia.

Permanent EU asylum reforms will be hard in crisis

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Asylum Seekers ◽  
Development Aid ◽  
Policy Impact ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Critical Policy

Significance The EU's 'Dublin' asylum system, whereby protection responsibilities rest with the first EU state of entry, has broken down under the scale of the influx of refugees and migrants from the Middle East and Africa. Scenes in Europe have shocked many and highlighted EU states' failure to agree on the distribution and nature of internal responsibility for asylum-seekers. Impacts The internal measures under discussion will be insufficient to manage the flows of people reaching Europe's borders. Further action on foreign policy, migration, crime and humanitarian and development aid will remain necessary to address migration drivers. Given the CEE states' stance, the outcome of Poland's October parliamentary election could have a critical policy impact.

Armenian election lays way for 'revolutionary' project

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Change ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Step ◽  
At Home

Significance Pashinyan promises radical changes at home but continuity in foreign policy after his alliance won a landslide victory in a December 9 parliamentary election that legitimised the revolutionary transition of power he has led this year. Before the street protests that brought Pashinyan to power in May, the Republican Party's ruling position seemed unassailable. Now it has failed to win enough votes to be awarded seats in parliament. Impacts The peaceful transfer of power through free and fair elections is a substantial positive step and may set a positive precedent. Pashinyan's alliance has five years of parliamentary dominance to pursue reforms. Moscow and Yerevan will eye one another nervously for months or years, watching for signs of policy change.

Macron's foreign agenda will rest on domestic reform

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Nuclear Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Strategic Review ◽  
Military Procurement ◽  
White Book ◽  
The Government ◽  
Domestic Reform ◽  
The Eu

Subject France’s foreign policy. Significance Following several speeches by President Emmanuel Macron on France’s international ambitions and priorities, a new strategic review was published on October 11, updating the 2013 White Book on defence and security. Nonetheless, many questions remain around the implications of Macron’s new foreign policy agenda. Impacts Strategic bilateral relationships will be marked by toughness and pragmatism, as is the case in Macron’s personal relations with Trump. France’s position in the EU -- ambitious but often lonely -- and the Brexit negotiations will be a priority for the government. The 2019-24 military procurement programming law will allocate financial means and indicate which of Macron’s ambitions may be realistic. The modernisation of France's nuclear forces will put additional pressure on the defence budget.

EU leaders’ approaches to Trump will vary

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Military Spending ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Central Pillar ◽  
The Eu

Significance Trump’s election has undermined the stability of the transatlantic partnership that for decades has been a central pillar of foreign policy for leading European countries and for the EU itself. Impacts Trump’s attacks on Germany’s trade surplus helped bring the issue to the fore and Berlin is likely to raise investment after the election. Merkel will seek to counter any claims from other parties that her pledge to raise defence spending implies subservience to Trump. EU leaders may highlight the role non-military spending plays in improving security to counter Trump's demands for higher defence spending.

Chinese 'sharp power' will challenge EU governments

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Think Tanks ◽  
European Countries ◽  
European Politics ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Chinese Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China's Rise ◽  
Power Tools ◽  
The Eu

Subject Chinese 'sharp power' in Europe. Significance Beijing is pursuing its foreign policy agenda in Europe using ‘sharp power’ tools, inserting its voice into the European media sphere and attempting to shape the tone and content of output by Western think tanks and universities. It is also using its economic leverage to undermine EU unity on disputes between China and the major European countries. Impacts Smaller EU economies are most susceptible to Chinese influence; they may exploit fear of China to win concessions in Brussels. Major European media outlets will remain effective watchdogs. Europe did not traditionally share US geopolitical concerns about China’s ‘rise’; Chinese interference in European politics changes that. A less mercurial US administration would find much scope to cooperate with the EU to counter China’s illiberal influence. Exposure of ‘sharp power’ efforts will worsen the suspicion Chinese firms and individuals face on account of presumed government links.

Member states will drive EU foreign policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Eu Foreign Policy ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
National Defence ◽  
The Eu

Significance However, member states have the dominant foreign policy role in the EU. After Brexit, that will be France and Germany despite the United Kingdom insisting that it wants to maintain as close a relationship with the EU as possible. Impacts EU reformers will light on foreign policy as an area to drive forwarded integration. However, the EEAS lacks the competencies and institutional horsepower to be a force for integration. The strategic needs of the 27 post-Brexit EU members will be various, thus acting as a drag on integration. Smaller EU member states will see more advantage than larger ones in collectively pursuing foreign policy goals through Brussels. Larger member states will be unwilling to submit their national defence policies to greater EU authority.

Trump Warsaw visit will widen intra-European rifts

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Success ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Arms Exports ◽  
The Eu

Significance Poland is looking to forge closer ties with Washington to establish its leadership in CEE, counterbalance Franco-German dominance of the EU and present a united front against Russia. Other CEE countries are looking elsewhere for allies, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to Hungary demonstrates. Impacts Germany and Austria will move to maintain influence in CEE, probably through partnering with the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Russia will work to avoid any threat to its natural gas monopoly in CEE, with Bulgaria and Hungary its levers of influence. Trump will point to gas and arms exports to Poland as a US foreign policy success, though US hawks will remain sceptical about Russia.

Snap election may not end Austrian government crisis

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Critical Line ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vice Chancellor ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Eu

Significance This comes after the sudden resignation of Vice Chancellor Reinhold Mitterlehner as head of the OeVP, announced on May 10, precipitated a government crisis. His successor as party leader, 30-year-old Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz, two days later unilaterally declared the collapse of the grand coalition with the Social Democrats (SPOe) live on television, demanding a snap parliamentary election. Impacts Kurz is likely to represent a more critical line on the EU, pushing for reforms. Bad blood between the SPOe and the OeVP could open the door for a coalition with the FPOe even if it incurs losses. As in France, there is a trend towards personality politics in a country where political parties have traditionally been dominant.

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