Chinese 'sharp power' will challenge EU governments

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Think Tanks ◽  
European Countries ◽  
European Politics ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Chinese Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China's Rise ◽  
Power Tools ◽  
The Eu

Subject Chinese 'sharp power' in Europe. Significance Beijing is pursuing its foreign policy agenda in Europe using ‘sharp power’ tools, inserting its voice into the European media sphere and attempting to shape the tone and content of output by Western think tanks and universities. It is also using its economic leverage to undermine EU unity on disputes between China and the major European countries. Impacts Smaller EU economies are most susceptible to Chinese influence; they may exploit fear of China to win concessions in Brussels. Major European media outlets will remain effective watchdogs. Europe did not traditionally share US geopolitical concerns about China’s ‘rise’; Chinese interference in European politics changes that. A less mercurial US administration would find much scope to cooperate with the EU to counter China’s illiberal influence. Exposure of ‘sharp power’ efforts will worsen the suspicion Chinese firms and individuals face on account of presumed government links.

EU leaders’ approaches to Trump will vary

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Military Spending ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Central Pillar ◽  
The Eu

Significance Trump’s election has undermined the stability of the transatlantic partnership that for decades has been a central pillar of foreign policy for leading European countries and for the EU itself. Impacts Trump’s attacks on Germany’s trade surplus helped bring the issue to the fore and Berlin is likely to raise investment after the election. Merkel will seek to counter any claims from other parties that her pledge to raise defence spending implies subservience to Trump. EU leaders may highlight the role non-military spending plays in improving security to counter Trump's demands for higher defence spending.

Germany’s coalition faces division on several fronts

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Public Image ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strong Emphasis ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
Policy Decision Making ◽  
The Eu

Significance The three parties successfully negotiated a coalition agreement with a strong emphasis on modernising Germany’s economy. Throughout the negotiations, the parties presented a public image of stability and harmony, yet several divisive issues will test the new government's stability and effectiveness. Impacts The composition of the new government will make it harder for Berlin to win approval for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will seek to prioritise more unity at the EU level when it comes to foreign policy decision-making. The spread of the Omicron variant will slow economic recovery and potentially delay the transition to a greener economy.

Government failures and non-performing loans in European countries: a spatial approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferdinando Ofria ◽  
Massimo Mucciardi
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Geographically Weighted Regression ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Weighted Regression ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Ols Regression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Eu

PurposeThe purpose is to analyze the spatially varying impacts of corruption and public debt as % of GDP (proxies of government failures) on non-performing loans (NPLs) in European countries; comparing two periods: one prior to the crisis of 2007 and another one after that. The authors first modeled the NPLs with an ordinary lest square (OLS) regression and found clear evidence of spatial instability in the distribution of the residuals. As a second step, the authors utilized the geographically weighted regression (GWR) to explore regional variations in the relationship between NPLs and the proxies of “Government failures”.Design/methodology/approachThe authors first modeled the NPL with an OLS regression and found clear evidence of spatial instability in the distribution of the residuals. As a second step, the author utilized the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) (Fotheringham et al., 2002) to explore regional variations in the relationship between NPLs and proxies of “Government failures” (corruption and public debt as % of GDP).FindingsThe results confirm that corruption and public debt as % of GDP, after the crisis of 2007, have affected significantly on NPLs of the EU countries and the following countries neighboring the EU: Switzerland, Iceland, Norway, Montenegro, and Turkey.Originality/valueIn a spatial prospective, unprecedented in the literature, this research focused on the impact of corruption and public debt as % of GDP on NPLs in European countries. The positive correlation, as expected, between public debt and NPLs highlights that fiscal problems in Eurozone countries have led to an important rise of problem loans. The impact of institutional corruption on NPLs reports that the higher the corruption, the higher is the level of NPLs.

Japan will move to counter China's rise

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Strategy ◽  
China’S Rise ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
China's Rise ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
The Rise Of China

Subject Japan's foreign policy strategy. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has changed core structures and frameworks within which Japan's foreign and defence policies are made. These changes can be seen as responses to the rise of China. Impacts Japan will use aid to counter China's influence, competing on quality and a record of delivering on promises. Laws passed under Abe could allow much greater defence cooperation with Australia and India. India is a future partner in Japan's developing relationship with Africa to compete with China’s Africa strategy.

Macron's foreign agenda will rest on domestic reform

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Nuclear Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Strategic Review ◽  
Military Procurement ◽  
White Book ◽  
The Government ◽  
Domestic Reform ◽  
The Eu

Subject France’s foreign policy. Significance Following several speeches by President Emmanuel Macron on France’s international ambitions and priorities, a new strategic review was published on October 11, updating the 2013 White Book on defence and security. Nonetheless, many questions remain around the implications of Macron’s new foreign policy agenda. Impacts Strategic bilateral relationships will be marked by toughness and pragmatism, as is the case in Macron’s personal relations with Trump. France’s position in the EU -- ambitious but often lonely -- and the Brexit negotiations will be a priority for the government. The 2019-24 military procurement programming law will allocate financial means and indicate which of Macron’s ambitions may be realistic. The modernisation of France's nuclear forces will put additional pressure on the defence budget.

Member states will drive EU foreign policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Eu Foreign Policy ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
National Defence ◽  
The Eu

Significance However, member states have the dominant foreign policy role in the EU. After Brexit, that will be France and Germany despite the United Kingdom insisting that it wants to maintain as close a relationship with the EU as possible. Impacts EU reformers will light on foreign policy as an area to drive forwarded integration. However, the EEAS lacks the competencies and institutional horsepower to be a force for integration. The strategic needs of the 27 post-Brexit EU members will be various, thus acting as a drag on integration. Smaller EU member states will see more advantage than larger ones in collectively pursuing foreign policy goals through Brussels. Larger member states will be unwilling to submit their national defence policies to greater EU authority.

Trump Warsaw visit will widen intra-European rifts

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Success ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Arms Exports ◽  
The Eu

Significance Poland is looking to forge closer ties with Washington to establish its leadership in CEE, counterbalance Franco-German dominance of the EU and present a united front against Russia. Other CEE countries are looking elsewhere for allies, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to Hungary demonstrates. Impacts Germany and Austria will move to maintain influence in CEE, probably through partnering with the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Russia will work to avoid any threat to its natural gas monopoly in CEE, with Bulgaria and Hungary its levers of influence. Trump will point to gas and arms exports to Poland as a US foreign policy success, though US hawks will remain sceptical about Russia.

Beijing’s ambitions and assertiveness will grow

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Senior Leadership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
The World ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

Significance The senior leadership seeks to defend its position within China, first and foremost by preserving and strengthening the power of the Party through which it rules. China’s growing wealth and power create new opportunities for the Party to bolster its power -- and give rise to new threats that could undermine it. Impacts China’s ambitions centre on itself; they do not involve remaking the world in China’s image. China’s interests converge with other states' on climate change and economic cooperation; disputes concern how gains and costs are shared. China’s pursuit of its self-interest may sometimes have positive spill-overs, such as when it shares innovations, freely or otherwise. Despite controversies and setbacks, the Belt and Road will provide infrastructure critical for economic development globally. Beijing, long a practitioner of commercial espionage, is becoming bolder in its use of cyber operations to pursue its foreign policy agenda.

EU foreign policy fragmentation will increase

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
Predominant Role ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Eu Foreign Policy ◽  
Competition Rules ◽  
National Champions ◽  
The Eu

Subject Structural challenges to EU foreign policy. Significance The EU lacks a consolidated foreign policy: member states play a predominant role in external affairs. However, given such domestic challenges as political fragmentation, adverse demographic change and rising populism, national foreign policy faces a future of more volatility and uncertainty. This could increase the need to bolster the EU’s foreign policy powers. Impacts Positions on Russian sanctions and the Iran nuclear deal show the Council able to form a consensus on some important external issues. Germany and France will push for changed EU competition rules to allow ‘national champions’ to emerge against Chinese and US competitors. Regional neighbours in Northern and Southern Europe may deepen inter-governmentalism and cooperation, respectively. The EU could become a global trendsetter in climate change, especially if Germany and Poland agree to carbon neutrality by 2050.

EU integration will be restricted post-Brexit

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Relative Weight ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Policy Tool ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU direction post-Brexit. Significance Some Europhiles believe that the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU removes a veto-wielding disruptor, thereby enabling the EU to achieve deeper political and economic integration. However, opposition to integration will remain strong, with former UK policy allies in the EU now looking to occupy the ground left by the United Kingdom. Impacts German-French hopes to create European champion firms to bolster EU competition will strengthen following Brexit. The relative weight in the EU of countries opposed to using sanctions as a foreign policy tool, such as Italy and Hungary, will now grow. Future defence and security initiatives could be established outside EU structures in order to accommodate the United Kingdom.

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